The only thing we know for sure is that successful authors are usually the ones who put the most effort into it. I remember this great anecdote from Stephen King: he was writing his first novel on a typewriter on his knees, in the laundry room of his trailer. However uncomfortable the circumstances, you have to be writing before anything else. Day after day, year after year. "Eighty percent of success is showing up," Woody Allen once said. I agree. Sit down and write. The other fifteen percent remain to be seen.