How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors Behind Every Successful Project, from Home Renovations to Space Exploration

by Professor Bent Flyvbjerg

If you are not a corporate executive or government official, and if the ambitious project you are contemplating is on a much smaller scale than these giants, it may be tempting to think that none of this applies to you. Resist that temptation. My data show that smaller projects are susceptible to fat tails, too. Moreover, fat-tailed distributions, not normal distributions, are typical within complex systems, both natural and human, and we all live and work within increasingly complex systems, which means increasingly interdependent systems. Cities and towns are complex systems. Markets are complex systems. Energy production and distribution are complex systems. Manufacturing and transportation are complex systems. Debt is a complex system. So are viruses. And climate change. And globalization. On and on the list goes. If your project is ambitious and depends on other people and many parts, it is all but certain that your project is embedded in complex systems.