Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China

by Hal Brands

Yet Soviet hostility proved to be a valuable asset for China, because it made possible Mao’s opening to America. That strategic masterstroke did three things that enabled the rise of the China we know today. First, it turned the United States from a mortal enemy into a quasi-ally. The United States began withdrawing its forces from Vietnam and Taiwan; it started backing China as a Cold War counterweight to the Soviet Union. Henry Kissinger shared sensitive intelligence on Soviet troop movements and warned Moscow that an attack on China would be an attack on America’s vital interests.6 When China invaded Soviet ally Vietnam in 1979, the United States again warned Moscow not to interfere.7 Thanks to the quirks of Cold War geopolitics, Beijing now had a superpower on its side. Second, the opening to America fast-tracked China’s integration with the wider world. The United Nations made Beijing, not Taipei, the holder of China’s seats in the General Assembly and Security Council. The PRC began its entry into institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). Country after country switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing; Japan, China’s historical enemy, became its largest aid donor. With these new diplomatic connections, China was able to counter-encircle the Soviet Union, forging partnerships with Soviet neighbors stretching from Japan through Iran to West Germany. Third, rapprochement allowed a breakout from economic purgatory. For the fi...