Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China

by Hal Brands

In 2018, Chinese judges granted divorces in just 38 percent of cases brought before the courts, the lowest percentage on record. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese officials openly hoped that prolonged lockdowns would lead to vigorous patriotic baby-making and proposed special taxes on childless couples. The CCP has even cracked down on vasectomies. Beijing explains these measures as efforts to promote family values. But what’s really at issue is an acute fear of demographic decline. For decades, China’s birthrate has been far below the level required to maintain current population size. A shrinking, aging population cannot deliver robust economic growth. Without robust economic growth, the Chinese dream is an illusion. Which means that divorces, childless women, and sterilized men are, from the CCP’s perspective, a threat to the country’s geopolitical future.