Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China

by Hal Brands

This gathering economic storm poses an existential threat to the CCP, which is one reason why the party finds it so hard to kick its potentially fatal addiction to debt. Since the 1970s, the party’s primary source of legitimacy has been the delivery of rising wages and improving living standards. Stellar economic performance has allowed the CCP to present Chinese citizens with a simple and strict social contract: The party retains absolute power while the people receive more wealth—and that’s it. No elections. No independent media. No unsanctioned protests and absolutely no organized political opposition. This basic bargain has made China’s political system strong but extremely brittle, because it only works if the country’s economic engine keeps humming.