Robert

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In that case the catastrophic cost of a false alarm would call for being absolutely sure you are being attacked before responding, which means setting the response criterion very, very high. Also relevant are the base rates of the bombers and seagulls that trigger those blips (the Bayesian priors). If seagulls were common but bombers rare, it would call for a high criterion (not jumping the gun), and vice versa.
Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters
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