Calling Bullshit: The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World

by Carl T. Bergstrom

Sir Francis Bacon, often credited as an early architect of the modern scientific method, exhorts his followers to epistemic purity in the preface of his Instauratio Magna: Lastly, I would address one general admonition to all; that they consider what are the true ends of knowledge, and that they seek it not either for pleasure of the mind, or for contention, or for superiority to others, or for profit, or fame, or power, or any of these inferior things; but for the benefit and use of life; and that they perfect and govern it in charity. The rest of us—including every living scientist we know—are epistemically sullied. We act from the same human motivations as everyone else. This doesn’t mean that scientists are irresponsible, untrustworthy, or unethical; it just means that they have other interests beyond the pure quest for understanding. To understand how science works and where things can go wrong, we need to understand what these interests are. So before addressing bullshit in science, let’s look at what motivates its stewards. While scientists tend to be intensely curious people who love solving puzzles, they are in most respects just like everyone else, striving to earn money and win status among their peers. We scientists want to understand how the world works, but we also want to impress our friends and colleagues, win the next promotion, and—if things go really, really well—make the big time with a guest appearance on the Daily Show or Last Week Tonight. Scientists...