The regime expected shipping losses of between 800,000 and 1.1 million tons in the first year of war, declining to 700,000–800,000 tons in each of the two following years. Wartime construction was expected to offset these losses, at least partially. Japan’s wartime shipbuilding effort was heroic in scale, rising from 238,000 tons of new cargo shipping launched in 1941, to 1.6 million tons launched in 1944. But sinkings ran much higher than forecast, and net losses remained critical in every year of the war.4 The Japanese army and navy largely neglected to cooperate with one another, or with
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