This situation (multiple bids with timing/quality concerns) is very common, but because of the uncertainty introduced in the outcome, it’s a bit too complex to analyze easily with just cost-benefit analysis. Luckily, there is another straightforward mental model you can use to make sense of all these potential outcomes: the decision tree. It’s a diagram that looks like a tree (drawn on its side), and helps you analyze decisions with uncertain outcomes. The branches (often denoted by squares) are decision points and the leaves represent different possible outcomes (often using open circles to
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