Sterman has been able to statistically derive the decision rule used by the participants.22 This rule is based on a behavior known in the psychology literature as anchor and adjust. Rather than deductively calculate their future beer needs by looking at all the inventory on the board (which they can see) and incorporating the effects of the time delays and so on, the participants simply look at the past pattern of orders and inventory levels, and inductively anchor on a pattern that seems normal.
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