ludic fallacy.
The military calls a BLACK SWAN and UNKNOWN UNKNOWN.
Now, here is one. Those little boats the Iranians have in the Gulf supposedly have three cruise missiles apiece on them. There are enough of them to overwhelm the defenses of several U.S. naval ships. This was gamed in an exercise related in the book "Blink" (I think.)
The point is A LUDIC FALLACY is one where real life doesn't parallel the classroom game.
What if you sent one plane against high value targets and three against low value targets?
Or, what if we just let COVID run? That makes OPERATION WARP SPEED'S success imperative.
