as follows: do not compute odds from the vantage point of the winning gambler (or the lucky Casanova, or the endlessly bouncing back New York City, or the invincible Carthage), but from all those who started in the cohort.
When you compute odds, look at the number of people in the cohort.
There will be one lucky or one unlucky person if the cohort is big enough.
You have to decide if the loss of quality of life is worth the risk taken. For instance, we can't go bankrupt buying enough insurance so we don't go bankrupt from not having insurance.
You can use the same idea for the need to save a year of living expenses. Do it for the PSYCHIC ENERGY that will come from planning, and it will be easier.
