Furthermore, people who make forecasts professionally are often more affected by such impediments than those who don’t.
When you were a financial advisor, you would only buy stock in companies that had 10 successive years of increasing earnings. You looked at other factors to see if the trend was stable.
You told your clients only one in three stocks they bought would go up in the long term. One in three would do nothing. One in three would go down and one in three would go bankrupt. The portfolio would likely go up. Look at the total value, not at the individual stocks.
Some persisted in looking at the individual choices. Fortunately, there was only one who never stopped doing this.
