Gary Thaller

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By the mechanism of retrospective determinism we will find the “cause”—actually, we need to see the cause.
Gary Thaller
RETROACTIVE DETERMINISM is the process of deciding on the cause after observing the effect. For instance, if there is an uptick in COVID cases, we will be quick to point at peoplel who don't wear masks, etc. If there is a downtick, we might say people are getting increased immunity because they aren't wearing masks. If it stays the same, we might say wearing masks doesn't help. Looking back, whatever happens has whatever happened as the assumed cause. In reality, the cause we choose may be completely unrelated. This is so even when we do a long-term retrospective analysis of a method. 10% of the random methods will work better than the other 90% of random methods.
Incerto 4-Book Bundle: Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, The Bed of Procrustes, Antifragile
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