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Nassim Taleb
swimming
twice a week.
good swimmers because of their physiques.
we confuse selection factors with results, we fall prey to what Taleb calls the swimmer’s body illusion
they were born happy and now tend to see the positive
do not realize that cheerfulness—according to many studies, such as those conducted by Harvard’s Dan Gilbert—is largely a personality trait that remains constant throughout life.
Social proof.
sunk cost fallacy is therefore often referred to as the “Concorde effect.”
only your assessment of the future costs and benefits counts.
Don’t Accept Free Drinks
Stanley Milgram demonstrated the authority bias
Experts suffer even more from the overconfidence effect than laypeople do.
84 percent of Frenchmen estimate that they are above-average lovers.
93 percent of the U.S. students estimated to be “above average” drivers.
broader selection leads to poorer decisions.
large selection leads to discontent.
we respond to the expected magnitude of an event (the size of the jackpot or the amount of electricity), but not to its likelihood.
We lack an intuitive grasp of probability. The proper term for this is neglect of probability
“What goes around, comes around” simply does not exist.
Fuck karma, just meditate
Whenever we have to guess something
we use anchors
highest estimates came from people who had spun high numbers on the wheel.
it has been proven that if teachers know students’ past grades, it influences how they will mark new work.
David Hume used this allegory back in the eighteenth century to warn
it’s not just geese
if you want to convince someone about something, don’t focus on the advantages; instead highlight how it helps them dodge the disadvantages.
When people work together, individual performances decrease.
Linear growth we understand intuitively.
we have no sense of exponential (or percentage) growth.
we didn’t need it...
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Start with the magic number of 70 and divide it by the growth rate in percent.
“Why the number 70?” This has to do with a mathematical concept called logarithm. You can look it up in the notes
more than half of all acquisitions destroy value,
overestimate individuals’ influence and underestimate external, situational factors.
fundamental attribution error
useful for whittling negative events into neat little packages.
“b...
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We take a simple-to-obtain or remarkable fact or detail, such as a company’s financial situation, and extrapolate conclusions from there that are harder to nail down, such as the merit of its management
We believe that CEOs who are successful in one industry will thrive in any sector
that they are heroes in their private lives,
produces a positive or negative impression that outshines everything else,
automatically regard good-looking people as more pleasant, honest, and intelligent.
halo effect obstructs our view of true characteristics.
go beyond face value.
Those who speculate on junk bonds, options, and credit default swaps, thus making millions, should never forget that they flirt with many alternative paths that lead straight to ruin.
Risk is not directly visible.
always consider what the alternatives paths are.
brain will do everything to convince you that your success is warranted—no matter how risky your dealings are—and will obscure any thought of paths other than the one you are on.
The conjunction fallacy is at play when such a subset seems larger than the entire set
