In 1703, Gottfried von Leibniz commented to the Swiss scientist and mathematician Jacob Bernoulli that “[N]ature has established patterns originating in the return of events, but only for the most part,”1 thereby prompting Bernoulli to invent the Law of Large Numbers and methods of statistical sampling that drive modern activities as varied as opinion polling, wine tasting, stock picking, and the testing of new drugs.b Leibniz’s admonition—”but only for the most part”—was more profound than he may have realized, for he provided the key to why there is such a thing as risk in the first place:
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