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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call real
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Hardcover, 288 pages
Published
February 6th 2018
by Portfolio Penguin
(first published 2018)
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Start your review of Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
The curse of dimensionality
گاهی احساس میکنم خنگم. احتمالا دلیلش اینه که خیلی وقتها از اینکه بخوام بدون داشتن اطلاعات کامل و رسیدن به سطح قابل قبولی از قطعیت تصمیمگیری کنم، راحت نیستم. تحلیل بیش از حد باعث میشه مردد بشم و این تردید و دودلی باعث میشه اعتماد به نفسم رو بیشتر از دست بدم و در ادامه احساس خنگی بیشتر بشه.
اما عدم قطعیت یکی از ویژگیهای ذاتی زندگیه. ما هیچ وقت اطلاعات کامل رو در اختیار نداریم. یعنی اصلا امکانش وجود نداره. زندگی به عنوان یک سیستم خیلی پیچیدهتر از اونیه که برای ما ق ...more
گاهی احساس میکنم خنگم. احتمالا دلیلش اینه که خیلی وقتها از اینکه بخوام بدون داشتن اطلاعات کامل و رسیدن به سطح قابل قبولی از قطعیت تصمیمگیری کنم، راحت نیستم. تحلیل بیش از حد باعث میشه مردد بشم و این تردید و دودلی باعث میشه اعتماد به نفسم رو بیشتر از دست بدم و در ادامه احساس خنگی بیشتر بشه.
اما عدم قطعیت یکی از ویژگیهای ذاتی زندگیه. ما هیچ وقت اطلاعات کامل رو در اختیار نداریم. یعنی اصلا امکانش وجود نداره. زندگی به عنوان یک سیستم خیلی پیچیدهتر از اونیه که برای ما ق ...more
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Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.
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“What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of “I’m not sure.”
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“In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.”
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