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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call real
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Hardcover, 288 pages
Published
February 6th 2018
by Portfolio Penguin
(first published 2018)
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la forma de ver el mundo atravez de apuestas es interesanta: te hace reflexionar sobre tus creencias cuando hay una dispuita economica de por medio. tambien hace caer en cuenta sobre como los eventos son una mescla de nuestras habilidades y suerte; nunca un evento es 100% suerte o habilidad de nuestra toma de decisiones.
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Buen mensaje. Es natural que cuando alcanzamos un resultado o outcome miremos hacia atrás para evaluar la calidad de las decisiones que tomamos. Es nuestra forma de tener control de las cosas. Sin embargo, la vida es más como el poker que el ajedrez. En ajedrez siempre puedes trazar para atrás o saber en dónde te equivocaste o te superaron. En poker puedes tomar las mejores decisiones y aún así lograr un mal resultado, o tomar malas decisiones y lograr un buen resultado. Es porque en poker (al i
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Este libro fue una aventura leerlo, me tardé mucho (como 3 meses) porque menciona mucha bibliografía y quería consultarla toda, cómo Annie hila todo lo que quiere decir me pareció muy bonito y me llevó de la mano todo el tiempo, recomiendo leerlo muchísimo.
Está muy bien si fuera un anecdotario de una jugadora de Poker, tiene historias interesantes, pero de ahí a dar puntos clave sobre cómo pensar en apuestas, fuera del concepto base, no aporta mucho.
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Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.
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“What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of “I’m not sure.”
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“In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.”
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