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数据缺失下流域模拟方法研究

盛虎，郭怀成

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《数据缺失下流域模拟方法研究》主要针对流域模拟过程中的数据缺失问题，研究了基于模拟的流域数据反演方法和基于统计的缺失数据多重插补方法的原理及适用范围，提出了贝叶斯框架下这两类方法嵌套与统一的本质。 在此基础上， 针对滇池流域主要入湖河流TN?TP 负荷估算问题， 分别开展缺失数据下流域降雨模拟?水文模拟和负荷估算， 得到了不同时间尺度下滇池流域主要河流入湖径流量和TN?TP 污染负荷量的期望值及其不确定性范围， 实现了模拟与统计方法在数据缺失下流域模拟过程中的嵌套与统一。

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Published March 1, 2015

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盛虎，郭怀成

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