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Stocks for the Long Run : The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies

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"One of the ten best investing books of all time."-- The Washington Post One of investing's most celebrated icons updates his classic work to reflect today's world and markets In this long-awaited and eagerly anticipated update, Jeremy iegel provides his legendary perspective and guidance to an investment world turned upside down. Stocks for the Long Run combines a compelling and timely portrait of today's turbulent stock market with the strategies, tools, and techniques investors need to maintain their focus and achieve meaningful stock returns over time. This completely updated edition includes entirely new data, charts, and figures as it provides answers on the five major issues concerning investors and professionals

383 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 1994

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About the author

Jeremy J. Siegel

13 books69 followers
Jeremy J. Siegel is the Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

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5 stars
1,463 (42%)
4 stars
1,157 (33%)
3 stars
626 (18%)
2 stars
136 (3%)
1 star
55 (1%)
Displaying 1 - 30 of 145 reviews
Profile Image for George Jankovic.
140 reviews87 followers
May 7, 2016
Fantastic book, great analysis, but a wrong conclusion that stocks can be bought at any time e.g. even when overvalued. the book was written just as the bubble burst.
24 reviews19 followers
August 1, 2019
Here are what I have learned from the book
- Losing portfolio outperform winning portfolio on the long run
- Small cap outperform large cap on the long run
- Buy and hold is the best strategy ever
- You can never predict the market, if you do then you will do 0.5% better than buy and hold
- Value beats quality in the long term, try comparing google vs Black Stanley with dividends
- Never consider any asset class other than stocks
- Stocks is less sensitive to inflation in the long term
- Stocks are bad in the short term and great in the long term, the award is given to those who is patient not those who work hard
- Studies confirms that checking the portfolio every year have negative effect compared to checking every 10 years
- In trading, the past doesn't say anything about the future, every rule made had a random results.
- In investing the past say that business quality and value are more important than everything else.
- Stocks growth have negative correlation with economic growth
- Investing anywhere in the world in the long term will guarantee high results, only avoid bubbles like Japan 90s
- Ignore book value in evaluation
- Never react to economic or political news, and never look at business cycle trends

Profile Image for Steve.
114 reviews16 followers
May 16, 2011
A solid (yet very bullish) defense of long-term investing (for investors with a horizon of 20 years or more). Read with care! If your investment horizon is less (even if its 10 or 15 years) this book must be read in combination with Robert Shiller's Irrational Exuberance. Shiller explains how the business cycle can produce devastating returns even to those following relatively conservative strategies over periods less than 20 years when they invest at times of high P/E and B/V ratios and low dividend yields (i.e. near the peak of a stock market bubble) - conditions such as we find today.

With this in mind, Siegel provides some interesting thoughts and some great analysis on 200 years of data. It's interesting how much better the risk profile of stocks has been versus bonds over longer periods (>20 years) during the last 100 years. This has been due to unexpected yet devastating periods of inflation that come along more often than people realize and wipe out real returns on bonds (stocks fare better over the long term given their link to real assets).

An interesting section on the book discussed reasons why the average Shiller P/E (that divides current prices by 10 years of earnings data) should be at a higher level than the historic average of 16x - perhaps something more like 20x (we are at 24x as of May 2011) due to structural reasons such as reduced capital gains taxes, decreased earnings volatility in the business cycle, lower dividend payout ratios and a more-aggressive fed that won't let 1929 happen again, In Irrational Exuberance, Shiller provides an excellent defense against these arguments that are actually a lot weaker than they sound in Siegel's hands, as well as a few negative factors not contemplated by Siegel. That said, Siegel's key points are worth reading and considering - perhaps a level between the two authors is an appropriate yardstick going forward.

I was concerned to find chapters toward the end of the book on calendar stock market effects and technical and momentum investing strategies - things that should clearly not find a place in a book titled "stocks for the long run"!

Despite, weakening substantially toward the end of the book and the author's clearly bullish bias (one that has cost a lot of investors a lot of money given the books first release in 1994!) I found this an interesting companion to the likes of Shiller, Klarman, Montier and Graham and would recommend it those interested in learning what different asset classes have done over the last 200 years and what realistic expectations could be going forward.
3 reviews
May 16, 2015
The most valuable part of the book is the historical return data and accompanying analysis. He presents interesting reference information on returns, sector composition of the stock markets over time and geographies, and the performance of various strategies that attempt to outperform the market.

Siegel presents a convincing case for the historical outperformance of stocks in the US, but does not aggressively tackle the most obvious critique of this work - that by analyzing the current hedgemon it is not surprising he finds great historical performance of financial instruments linked to growth. He extrapolates past returns to predict future returns, without accounting for the selection bias.

See Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns for a global perspective. That book offers a more academic and more realistic perspective.

Still - this is a worthwhile read for amateur investors.
Profile Image for Parisa Bookworm.
76 reviews61 followers
December 12, 2017
با اینکه اشکم را دراورد تا تموم شد اما واقعا کتاب مفید و کاربردی در رابطه با سهام هم برای مبتدیان از جمله خودم و هم افراد حرفه ای بود. اگر تصمیم به فعالیت در این زمینه دارید صد در صد خوندن این کتاب بهش پیشنهاد میشه
Profile Image for عبدالله.
59 reviews20 followers
May 14, 2015
From where should I begin?

This "peace of art" is a must read for anyone who is interested in investment specially those who care most about stock markets.

It is crystal clear to anyone who reads this book, the "enormous" effort done by the author of this book. There are hundreds of tables, graphs, comparisons, studies, ... etc.

Actually, the book is so rich and so good that I cannot express how good is it. When The Washington Post said about this book: "One of the best investment books of all time", they were not exaggerating at all.

I think I am not able to write a review that contains what can you find in the book. So, take a look at the table of contents and you will know what to expect. I can assure who ever read this book that he will not only have a comprehensive understanding about stocks but the correlation between stocks with nearly everything.

I will definitely read the book again and I will read certain chapters again and again and again.
September 30, 2019
One of the best books that I have read about investment. The author is clear and provides plenty of data and statistics about his points of view. It's not a book to read in a couple of days. It took me quite a bit to finish it, because I needed some time understand all the analysis and conclusions, often counter intuitive, that the author puts over the table.
Profile Image for Dide.
1,226 reviews38 followers
November 17, 2018
3.5 rating
There wasn't any new revelation or conclusion that was made by me when I finished reading this book. I have read quite a couple of other really good books and so haven't been that surprised. That said, as the synopsis describes; this book indeed supplies a nice portrait of the stock exchange especially that of the USA.
Profile Image for Carlos Junior.
4 reviews
December 25, 2015
Realmente uma Bíblia do investimento no Longo Prazo (LP).

Demonstra como o "senso-comum" e a busca por rentabilidades (girando cada vez mais seu patrimônio, como é comum vermos as pessoas fazendo ao seguirem recomendações de "gurus" e mídia especializada) não são eficientes no LP.
Profile Image for مساعد الشطي.
Author 3 books74 followers
May 26, 2020
لماذا هذا الكتاب رائع؟لأن د.جيرمي خالف العرف السائد في كتب الاستثمار , لم يعطك وصفة جاهزة و إنما غطى أهم المواضيع الاستثمارية و علق عليها احصائياً .. مثال ما هي نسبة نجاح محفظتك لم اشتريت الأسهم شهر يناير بدل من سبتمر؟

الكتاب ممتاز و أنصح به بشدة
Profile Image for Atti.
74 reviews1 follower
January 12, 2018
one of the best books I read so far on the stock market. highly recommended for anyone interested in investing

it covers all the main themes in investing
March 9, 2022
É excelente em mostrar um panorama geral sobre investir em renda variável, tanto explicando o prêmio de ações em comparação ao demais investimentos, quanto o prêmio dos demais fatores, como ações de valor, de menor capitalização (small stocks), entre outros. Adorei que não só o autor mostra o histórico, mas também inclui fontes e referências para suas afirmações durante a leitura mesmo. Também gostei que, em alguns capítulos, o autor assume uma postura neutra, mostrando as vantagens e desvantagens de algumas estratégias, como análise técnica. Fiquei surpresa também porque ele sugere que a pequena investidora use estratégias passivas, sempre focando em reduzir o custo e não tentar bater o mercado. Tem um capítulo sobre economia comportamental, mas ainda acho melhor ler direto Pensar rápido, pensar despacio.
Porém, achei que foca muito no mercado estadunidense, e não explora muito sobre os demais mercados de capitais. Em um dos capítulos, ele coloca que os investidores dos EUA não têm por que se preocupar com supervalorização das ações estadunidenses. E justifica isso dizendo que os investidores de países emergentes vão comprar as ações dos EUA porque assume que o mercado EUA continuará sendo o mais estável daqui a 30-40 anos.
Profile Image for Elliot.
327 reviews
November 15, 2017
Very interesting book, although many of the chapters boil down to: here's how you could time the market, here's how trends work and how you can buy based on them, here's how.... and end with "but seriously, just buy broad-based low-cost index funds as that's the way to do it. At least the conclusion is right even if the explanation of all sorts of complex ideas that sometimes did and often don't work makes you think for a while that people can actually beat the market (hint: they can't do so consistently, mostly it's luck if they do, and transaction costs means that most of the time they don't actually beat the market after transaction costs and taxes are taken into account).
Profile Image for James Farris.
Author 2 books4 followers
September 14, 2020
8.3/10– Good insight, foundational, not exciting

Provided splendid insight to the world economy in reference to the modern market. Foundational to all investors, examining all aspects from macro economics to the psychology of behavioral investing. Can be a hard read, not the most exciting, need lots of coffee to finish it.
Profile Image for Harith Alrashid.
835 reviews60 followers
March 17, 2020
مرجع رئيسي فيما يتعلق بسوق الاسهم والبورصة خاصة السوق الامريكي لاغنى عنه لاي مهتم بهذا الموضوع
شكرا لمعهد الادارة العامة على ترجمة هذا الكتاب وطبعة وشكرا للمترجمة الفاضلة الدكتورة هند
Profile Image for Stanley Arthur.
Author 2 books1 follower
September 15, 2014
A must read for those who are inclined to believe that sending your hard-earned money to strangers on Wall Street who promise to send back even more money over the next 20 - 30 yrs will end well.
This still one of the classic stock market investing books by a brilliant economic professor at the Univ. of Pennsylvania Wharton School. If you own stocks you need to own this book.
Just remember the "long term" is based on a 50 yr hold period. If you get in at the wrong end of a 10-20 yr flat period (1930-1952, 1967-1977, 1999-2012) the market might remain flat longer than you can remain solvent.
Profile Image for Christian.
46 reviews
September 6, 2015
This review is for the fifth edition which should be read over past editions for sure with additional information on more recent trends and the great recession of 2008. Excellent book that covers many different topics, supports the firm foundation theory and fundamental analysis of equities. Favors fundamental or value index funds, dividend paying companies with long term growth, low risk long term investing. Obviously biased towards long term investments. I tend to agree with many of the authors suggestions based on the data but ignoring higher risk short term opportunities does prevent some potential profits but could keep you from losing a lot as well.
Profile Image for Jonathan.
86 reviews1 follower
February 1, 2015
I first saw and heard about Jeremy Siegel on CNBC one day and it got me curious to learn more about him. I liked the first part of the book which is an interesting reminder of the stock market events over the 20th century. I was also happy to learn about the Irving Fisher Quote from 1929 "a permanently high plateau" which I didn't know before. The author is an advocate of equity long term passive low cost indexing, but it would have been interesting to read his thoughts on the value investing discipline practiced by Warren Buffet.
Profile Image for Chris.
17 reviews5 followers
March 28, 2015
A good follow up to a Random Walk Down Wall Street. A good source to show much of the long term data that should drive an investing strategy with adequate reminders (if you are attentive - Siegel has a bullish reputation) that the next 100 years may not have similar outcomes to the last 100 and that we may be looking at a future of lower stock yields. It remains logical to believe that there should still be a risk premium of stocks over bonds, but it seems unlikely to be as large in the future as it was over the 20th century.
Profile Image for Ben Sutter.
54 reviews24 followers
February 25, 2016
An academic-oriented summary of equity portfolio construction principles. It focuses is on the analysis and interpretation of historical performance data and does not really attempt to go beyond this scope. It is really solid overview which unlike a lot of other books is healthily skeptical about 'beat-the-market' strategies without being dogmatic about it. The book is generally really thorough and evidence-based in its delivery, with some occasional sections which are a little sloppy and could unintentionally encourage speculative behaviour in the eye of the untrained or inexperienced.
Profile Image for David Jacobson.
262 reviews10 followers
January 21, 2016
For the quantitatively inclined, this book gives a thorough and rational discussion of the long-term performance of financial markets. The conclusions are supported by many insightful plots, not by the "rules of thumb" one finds in lesser contributions to this literature. The book does a good job of straddling the line between general discussion and specific, actionable advice. Every person with money to invest over the long term (i.e., every person) should read this book.
Profile Image for Nathan Erickson.
101 reviews
March 30, 2016
Begins with an excellent review of how historical events and movement of the market.
Explains why the higher risk of equities is more than offset by the higher returns in the long run and is really less risk than bonds or Treasuries.
Moves into factors involved in valuing stocks and what has historically been good properties to look for. Explains Wall Street's reasoning for those factors and why they are wrong. Where they put a unreasonable premium and what to avoid.
Profile Image for Rob.
84 reviews2 followers
November 26, 2014
A very good book for anyone who is investing or considering investing, including through a retirement plan at work. That makes it a must read for just about everyone, and it helps put recent market and economic events in perspective.
Profile Image for Danilo.
47 reviews
September 28, 2015
Un buen libro que nos muestra cómo la inversión en acciones es el vehículo de inversión más atractivo en el largo plazo, siempre y cuando se mantenga la paciencia, templanza e inteligencia para elegir buenos stocks
183 reviews3 followers
June 26, 2014
주식시장을 데이터를 바탕으로 체계적으로 이해하게 하는 책이다. 광범위한 통계적 분석을 바탕으로 장기적인 투자전략을 어떻게 가져가야할지를 생각하게 만든다. 여태 이런 책도 한 권 안 보고 투자를 했구나 하고 경각심이 들었다.
28 reviews1 follower
May 19, 2017
everything is for the long run
Profile Image for Jacob Williams.
448 reviews8 followers
January 16, 2015
This covered a lot of stuff; I'm still in the early-beginner phase but I feel like it was very educational.
Displaying 1 - 30 of 145 reviews

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