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After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order

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Widely reviewed and critically praised, Emmanuel Todd's After the Empire predicts that the United States is forfeiting its superpower status as it moves away from traditional democratic values of egalitarianism and universalism, lives far beyond its means economically, and continues to anger foreign allies and enemies alike with its military and ideological policies. As America's global dominance evaporates, Todd foresees the emergence of a Eurasian alliance bringing together Europe, Russia, Japan, and the Arab-Islamic world.

Todd calmly and straightforwardly takes stock of many negative trends, including America's weakened commitment to the socio-economic integration of African Americans, a bulimic economy that increasingly relies on smoke and mirrors and the goodwill of foreign investors, and a foreign policy that squanders the country's reserves of "soft power" while its militaristic arsonist-fireman behavior is met with increasing resistance. Written by a demographer and historian who foresaw the collapse of the Soviet Union, this original and daring book cannot be ignored.

192 pages, Paperback

First published January 1, 2002

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About the author

Emmanuel Todd

59 books107 followers
Emmanuel Todd (born 16 May 1951) is a French historian, anthropologist, demographer, sociologist and political scientist at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) in Paris. His research examines the different types of families worldwide and how there are matching beliefs, ideologies and political systems, and the historical events involving these things.

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5 stars
72 (20%)
4 stars
112 (31%)
3 stars
128 (35%)
2 stars
33 (9%)
1 star
12 (3%)
Displaying 1 - 30 of 38 reviews
38 reviews3 followers
November 4, 2012
Interesting book. Written in 2002, it's quite accurate in some aspects, and a bit dated in others.
As a prediction it was spot-on in some cases - predicting a crisis, America's problems, and its miltary behaviour - but failed in some others:completely overlooked the rise of China. It's also somewhat optimistic about Europe's and Japan's future dominance.
I still found his methodology interesting: he bases his reasoning on statistics (demographic and economic) and anthropological structures. He reasons that the governments we go for are a reflection of our culture's family structure, which he supports with some convincing examples.
Was worth a read.
Profile Image for Murtaza .
680 reviews3,393 followers
December 29, 2016
Emmanuel Todd makes a very prescient metaphor about some older critics of American empire whom he says are like "broken clocks." Their perception of American power has not changed with the passage of time and changing of circumstance. Despite this, like frozen timepieces, they still manage to be right twice a day. Although they are driven by a genuine sense of moral outrage, the familiarity of their arguments tends to undercut their force at times. And some other times they just get it wrong.

This book represents a very different type of criticism of the United States. Written in 2002, before the Iraq War, and before a raft of trendy critiques of the United States began arriving, Todd predicted the imperial overreach and decay that we have since come to witness. An anthropologist, he looks at demographic trends (specifically literacy rates and birth rates) and makes the point that power and development is shifting to Eurasia. While many peoples are presently going through the stage of violent "deracination" that seems to accompany mass literacy, this is a phase that will pass. Declining birthrates around the world also testify to the improving status of women. In sum, the rest of the world is catching up in its own haphazard way.

America occupies a unique place in the world. It is ostensibly a superpower, yet it does not produce anything that the world particularly needs. It doesn't produce anything at all really. The U.S. is unique in the world in running up massive trade deficits year after year, consuming the excess demand of the world's producers and in turn stimulating the economy. The U.S. is the world's Keynesian state. Or to put it as evocatively as Todd as, it is the "world's Pyramid," without which the industrial powers would have not have a place to profit on their wares. America's bottomless consumption is what it offers to the world. In this light, Bush's famous exhortation to Americans to "go shopping" is not merely a call to get on with daily life, but to continue fulfilling America's role in the imperial order. Namely, it is the unproductive metropole, living off the production of the periphery.

Despite the deficits the U.S. dollar, miraculously enough, does not drop. This is because what is lost in trade is made up for in huge capital inflows from around the world. People ship their money to the U.S. in an arrangement we would've once called "tribute," but which is now done voluntarily and in a liberal manner by the rich and powerful from the rest of the globe. The mechanism for this is American financial markets, which are perceived to be secure and thus offer a place for those with means to store their financial assets; usually in safe investments such as conservative stocks, bonds and treasury bills. In this way America's consumption is paid for by the people of the world. In a stunning statistic cited here, it takes over $1Bn of inflow per day to keep America's trade deficit sustainable. And that was in 2002.

There are other very fascinating observations here that draw on Todd's anthropological background. The difference in cultures and political forms is a result of the different family structures of peasant groups, Todd contends. For example German peasants had hierarchal families that chose a single male heir to exclusion of others; a form that eventually allowed Nazism by normalizing a hierarchy among peoples. Communitarian family structures in Russia and China led another way, whereas the alleged favoritism among brothers in Arab families, to the exclusion of fathers, led to a congenital lack of respect for state authority. A non-anthropologist has little means by which to evaluate these claims but nonetheless many of them gave food for thought. The demographic trends of intermarriage among whites and Asians (growing) and among Whites and Blacks and Latinos (nonexistent or stagnant) as a marker of racial integration was also enlightening.

Given when this book was written, its kind of amazing how much Todd got right. Its almost as though later American leaders went out of their way to bring his dire predictions to fruition. He points out America's apparent need to keep low-level conflicts going on around the world, but only in places where the enemy is weak a spectacle can be made out of defeating them. The American military (its ground forces at least) are weak; slow and unwilling to take casualties. As such they only attack weak nations like Iraq and Vietnam, and even then they are unable to achieve their goals. The purpose of this constant belligerence is to show that America still has some kind of unique place or mission in the world; a violent spectacle that technically is meant to showcase its continued exceptionalism. However the repeated failures of such attempts, as well as the massive devastation they have wrought particularly in the Middle East, has deeply harmed the United States and its allies. Europe has a need to have tranquility in the Middle East, it can't afford to keep low-level conflicts like Israel/Palestine festering the way America has.

Todd doesn't get everything right. He predicts a move away from the U.S. on the part of Europe and a consolidation. Until recently that seemed perhaps possible, but Europe itself is now buckling under its own pressures. Russia is arising as less of an ally and more of a threat. And Todd fails to predict the rise of China, at least not in the correct timeframe. Nonetheless, this is really an exceptional work of political forecasting. Its an education, and it is not like the tired and predictable anti-American books out there. This is a work of genuine scholarship that belongs among the likes of Fukuyama and Brzezinski.

After finishing, I spent some time looking at the U.S. Balance of Trade in the years since the book's publication. With the exception of a latent growth in U.S. service sector exports, a murky and less "solid" industry in many ways, the trends he cites here have only continued to grow. How much longer this uniquely unstable economic arrangement can keep going becomes a bigger question with every passing year. Income inequality caused by sacrificing industrial production in favor of finance capital inflows is in turn creating a population of angry and unemployed living underneath a globalized, cosmopolitan elite, a group which Todd notes benefits from "educational stratification" as its own form of class difference.

The domestic instability now wracking the Western world order as a result of this arrangement suggests that real change is necessary now, before the breaking point is reached.
Profile Image for Timothy Fitzgerald.
14 reviews1 follower
December 10, 2008
For every salient point Todd makes, he makes another outrageous one that comes off as based purely on anti-American sentiment. When he does this, he actually undermines the impact of the book.

For example, his claims that the American army is weak because it has never performed well in ground combat seem way off base. I'm no expert, but it seems to me that the days of ground based conventional warfare are over. Why then, would the American military risk the lives of its soldiers? It seems to me that Todd has missed the boat, and is stuck in the paradigm of the first and second world wars. I believe this argument serves to undermine his overall point regarding the military, which is simply that the American military cannot adequately control the world and its resources because it is spread too thin, a very valid argument. By making the unprovable claim that the American military would not perform well in a ground campaign, his Anti-American sentiment comes through and weakens his main argument.

I did find his analysis of demographic patterns and their impacts on the economy to be very interesting. Reading this in 2008, his predictions regarding American consumerism and abuse of credit have an eery accuracy, which lend some credibility to his overall premise in hindsight. I do, however, look at a lot of his predictions of the geopolitical landscape skeptically. While it is undeniable that Russia, with its immense resources, is resurgent, his prediction of a Euro-Russo-Sino alliance seems more like wishful thinking than an inevitablity. In his blatant Anti-Americanism, I think he goes a bit too far to glorify the French, Germans, and especially Russians. I'd be the first to admit that there has been some irresponsible American behavior when it comes to foreign policy, but the US is not the only nation acting selfishly and trying to secure resources. That has become evident after the recent Russian aggression in Georgia.

To summarize, I do think Todd makes a lot of fair and accurate criticisms of America, but he goes too far on many occasions, at the expense of his own credibility.


Profile Image for Writerlibrarian.
1,532 reviews5 followers
April 7, 2008
L’historien et démographe Emmanuel Todd a publié à l’automne 2002, un essai qui avançait des idées originales, une vision lucide de la crise qui se dessinait entre le monde et les États-Unis. S’appuyant sur les données démographiques, économiques, Emmanuel Todd construit un portrait du déclin de l’Amérique cohérent et logique.

Republié en 2004 en format de poche dans la collection Folio, cet essai est écrit dans un style abordable et cohérent. Intéressant et instructif. A lire en tandem avec Le choc des civilisations de Samuel Huntington.
Profile Image for megs_bookrack.
1,771 reviews11.9k followers
December 22, 2016
Written in a political philosophy vein, I feel the book is a tad outdated (written just after 911). However it is interesting and worth a read if you at all interested in demography or anthropology. I personally felt at this point he underestimated the strategic importance of Russia and also the fortitude of the US. I would be interested to see an updated conclusion by this author.
1 review
October 15, 2019
Emmanuel Todd is a great writer and this book is another example of his work. As usual, his work makes uncomfortable reading for all of us, refusing to allow one side or another to pat themselves on the back.

It uses data - demographic, anthropological, as well as financial - to set out the basis for the arguments he makes. It is objective to a high degree. Whilst these numbers have now passed, most of his predications are true. If you read more recent editions, there is an afterword that reflects back on what he feels are limitations of his original work, a sign of humility and acceptance of imperfection. It is also a fantastic explainer in the machinations of various political ideologies, so without any argument, it is a great educational piece.

The negative reviews expressed below suggest readers that are either uncomfortable with acceptance of the current state of affairs, or too saturated by 'call out' culture to be able to absorb and consume information and argument at an objective level. Taking phrases out of context and throwing in a label of racism in order to try and add validity to ones own poorly expressed argument is direct from the Trump school of misinformation. The section on indigenous people highlighted in a review below is such a lumbering interpretation, it make you wonder if it's paid propaganda. To position demographic and data as old media tropes is just lazy, particularly when Mr Todd highlights these tropes and dissolves them through data led reasoning.

But this book questions everyone, the left, the centre and the right, none of whom are of course responsible for anything (it's always someone else fault!), so its no wonder to see the usual headline level analysis in reviews. Perhaps it would be better to go back to Twitter and shout at people for not agreeing with you.

This book is written with a sense of hope, that through honest conversation and analysis, America can reset it's course to look after it's own people and be the positive presence in the world it once was.
Profile Image for Ietrio.
6,709 reviews25 followers
September 23, 2018
Rehashing 1990 -- 2000 media "truths" and than reinforcing them.With a strong overall tone of racism and white power.

P. 80. The native Americans are underequipped as any mainstream Hollywood movie could testify. And they are illiterate probably because they do qualify as savages. The Europeans are modern. And obviously through contrast litterate.

Todd seems to be mostly educated through something that will synthetise shortly as history is an Italian Spaghetti Western in which half naked blackface Yugoslav riders will fight a band of whites, most of whom are virtuous. He has no idea that the Europeans were able to buy out their place in the army or pay a poor guy to take their place.

Down on the same pages, Todd is categorical on the issue of WWII :

> These bombings [of German towns] had no appreciable strategic effect [...]

And Todd's Economic understanding is somewhat lower than his History.
Profile Image for Anton Shanaurin.
301 reviews11 followers
January 13, 2023
Небезынтересное эссе, в котором автор полемизирует с Фукуямой, Хантингтоном и Бзежинским. Тодд совершенно не симпатизирует России, да и к Германии у него достаточно снисходительное отношение, но, насколько я понимаю, его можно отнести к французским интеллектуалам и поэтому мнение его весомо. Я плохо разбираюсь в междуна��одной политике, но было интересно, а некоторые подходы в анализе статистики хоть и не бесспорны, но заслуживают внимания. Исторические факты, приводимые в качестве доводов, смущают неточностью и лично во мне рождают недоверие по отношению к тем из них, насчет которых я не в курсе. В общем, это эссе проевропейски настроенного француза о стратегическом положении в мире с некоторыми прогнозами, которые ретроспективно оказались недалеко от истины.
Profile Image for Z..
45 reviews
May 23, 2023
This book was written more than 20 years ago, most of what the author described then has not only been confirmed by facts, but the pace of transformation (public debt, trade deficit, military efficiency, raise of Chinese economy) was even faster than he expected. However, the author was not fairly treating his subject (i.e. the issue of discrimination) he contended that France saw all individuals as equal, his approach to geopolitics is unique: he examines demographic statistics as well as social norms to understand whether a country is growing or contracting. His focus on infant mortality rates as an indicator of livings standards makes much sense and cuts through a lot of other confusing statistics.
Profile Image for Jasmine Peardon.
29 reviews
February 20, 2024
Although dated, it is quite relevant today. Predicting the 2008 financial crisis, Russian-Ukraine war, the rising importance of Germany, Russia's universalism perspective, and of course Palestine- Israel and his assertion that moving toward modernity is often violent. The demographic aspects of it was so simply written yet crucial to his theories, and quite interesting to analyze. I primarily took from it the aspects of American empire, a topic I'm exploring deeply at the moment. In short, I learned way too much in this book and excited to read his latest once it is translated to EN. Todd is a true intellectual that we are lucky to have, he thinks uniquely and speaks honestly. Refreshing.
January 25, 2023
Well, the view presentes about russian influence goals did not stand up to the events presented in this day. Also China factor was not adequately presented, hindsight when read 20 some years after publication, but assuming that as a choice made by author.

Minor nuicance in my edition was minor errors in data tables, where in few cases copy paste errors had occured. Also data from 20 years past had to be looked up again to see the trend now but that i was prepared for anyway.

Big thank you for the data nontheless to support the views!
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
20 reviews2 followers
August 14, 2020
Lecture globalement forte intéressante à la lueur des évènements géopolitiques des 20 dernières années: L'analyse de l'auteur tombe juste sur de nombreux points en rétrospective, notamment sur le besoin des Etats Unis à attiser un climat de tension et de guerre permanente dans le monde afin de justifier sa présence dans la zone Eurasie, zone géographique clé du point de vue des futurs et actuels dévelopement économiques. Todd est aussi très juste dans son analyse de la politique extérieure Russe. Un oubli béant cependant concerne le cas de la Chine, grande absente de son analyse, pour une raison qui m'échappe?
Un passage m'a cependant beaucoup fait rire, surtout suite à la lecture de "Luttes des Classes en France", où Todd (en 2020) dézingue joyeusement Maastricht et considère l'Euro comme responsable de tout les maux et notamment de la désindustrialisation de la France: "La France, de son côté, depuis qu'elle n'est plus paralysée par la politique du franc fort, depuis qu'elle a été libérée économiquement par l'euro faible, a retrouvé, grâce à sa situation démographique plus favorable, une certaine forme de dynamisme et de confiance en elle"... C'est ce qu'on appelle un grand changement d'opinion depuis 2002, année de parution de cet ouvrage !
Profile Image for Michael.
86 reviews2 followers
November 25, 2022
Comme toujours avec Todd, une mise en perspective intéressante des aspects culturels et démographiques même si l'on regrettera que ses analyses géopolitiques (Russie, Chine, Ukraine...) ont relativement mal vieilli.
Profile Image for İlhamə.
39 reviews29 followers
Read
June 18, 2017
Müәyyәn mәlumatlar öyrәnmәk baxımından yaxşıdı, amma 2002-ci ildә yazılıb vә artıq köhnәlmiş hesab etmәk olar. Bitirmәdim.
Profile Image for Brendan .
757 reviews37 followers
Read
July 5, 2022
Didn't real all of, just the most relevant parts about Russia and Ukraine
Profile Image for Kadri Kamel.
32 reviews
March 4, 2024
après L’empire, essai sur la décomposition du systeme americain.de l’anthropologue et essayist francais emmanuel todd , publié en 2002 ,
Pour todd , la décadence principale des etats- unis est économique car
Au début de xx siècle, les etats unis n'étaient pas besoin du monde , un pays autosuffisant , en 1945 le pnb ( produit national brute) des etats unis représentait la moitié du monde.mais Entre 1990 et 2000 , le déficit commercial américain est passé de 100 à 450 milliard de dollar.
Les etats- unis ne sont plus une hyperpuissance
L'Amérique est capable d' affronter que des micro puissances comme l' iran irak, Cuba. .. en réalité usa est en cours de décomposition, , une décennie après la chute de de l' empire sovietique.
L'Amérique n'est plus essentielle au monde par sa production , mais par sa consommation .
Pour Emmanuel Todd , Un jour les etats unis passeront d’ un état de semi -impériale a une situation pseudo -impériale.


Profile Image for Jim Coughenour.
Author 4 books193 followers
October 11, 2008
Recently (October 2008) I've been reading The Limits of Power by Andrew Bacevich, while following the news about the collapsing economy. More than once I've remembered this provocative book by Emmanuel Todd, first published in France before the Iraq war, and published in the US in spring 2004. Its analysis has held up well since.

As an example of Todd's prescience, here's a passage where he refers to the American economy: "Economics, if it is a science, ought to be able to theorize, analyze, and predict.... We do not yet know how and how fast European and Japanese investors will lose their shirts, but they will. The most likely scenario is a stock market crash larger than any we have experienced thus far that will be followed by the meltdown of the dollar – a one-two punch that would put an end to any further delusions of 'empire' when it comes to the U.S. economy." (p. 98)

Todd was not the only observer to make this argument, but he was one of the most focused. Michael Lind, in his introduction, summarizes the dire prediction whose fulfillment is upon us: "As for George W. Bush and his neoconservative helpers, they will go down in history as the grave diggers of the American empire."

Profile Image for Cissa.
608 reviews14 followers
May 5, 2010
Pretty persuasive- it does make sense out of some of the weirdnesses we've seen lately in America's foreign policy, and it's recommended on that count.

I will mention that Todd seems to have some serious issues with women; the only real vitriol in the entire book is aimed at American women and particularly feminists. He is very comfortable with the idea of men oppressing women (cultural diversity!), but not at all comfortable about women objecting to being oppressed (apparently cultural diversity does not extend THAT far!).

Also, based on current trends in France about the wearing of burqas etc., he is dead wrong about how tolerant France is about seeing such as a purely cultural matter; this is relevant since he's holding up France (he's French) as a Good Example of how America OUGHT to be (i.e., tolerant of the oppression of women, apparently). He also turns a blind eye to other racial and cultural prejudices in France, while coming down hard on such things in the US.

Profile Image for Leonardo.
Author 1 book69 followers
Shelved as 'to-keep-reference'
August 22, 2017
En su libro de 2004 "Después del imperio", el analista de geopolítica francés Emmanuel Todd se refiere a Europa como «la primera potencia industrial del planeta». Y tiene razón, lo es. Pero Estados Unidos es la primera «potencia ya no industrial» del planeta. Y Europa, con algunas excepciones importantes, todavía no ha modificado adecuadamente su relación con el fundamento profundo del conocimiento y con la riqueza revolucionaria.

La Revolución de la Riqueza Pág.278
#teboludeahastaToffler


...la visión de Emmanuel Todd del orden global actual es claramente unilateral...
El año que soñamos peligrosamente Pág.19
#tambiénZizek
20 reviews
April 21, 2008
From the same guy who accurately predicted the how & the why of the Soviet collapse (10 years before the fact), here he outlines the fall of American hegemony - the end of the so-called American century. In short, he outlined in 2004 the experiences we're now living in '08. Less a prophet than a pretencious Frenchman, he does have some very important things to say. If you can get past the bluster and presumptions (empire, omnipotence of the dollar, demographic determinism), it is definitely worth your time. There's a good translation out there too.
72 reviews4 followers
Want to read
November 15, 2009
From John Walker's response to my mail:

One book which has guided my view of what's happening for most of the
last decade is Emmanuel Todd's "After the Empire":

http://www.amazon.com/After-Empire-Br...

which I originally read in French in 2001. Todd is the person who predicted
the collapse of the Soviet Union in his 1976 book, "La chute finale".
544 reviews17 followers
July 26, 2011
A compelling read with a well founded argument on the decline of America and the role of the military in maintaining American lifestyle. He aptly describes America as the Kenysian stimulus to the world economy, a role which is superflous and only the military allows it to keep. He rightly describes the relationship between free trade and income disparity. The linking of family structure to state structure was a bit of stretch, though. well worth the time to read.
August 21, 2007
Todd was the one and only who perdict that the balance between of powers during cold war (US vs USSR) would finally breakdown by the fall of USSR. So it is interesting to see what Todd think about US. Some are quite logic argument but some are not. But in the end, it perdics the fall of US. It proves that all civilation will come to the end...that why they have so called 'history'.
7 reviews3 followers
July 26, 2010
I think this book is one of the most helpful books at these days especially after the Iraqi war, it's can predict the new world order after the frustration in Iraq, I think this book can be helpful to Rectification all previous mistakes in Iraqi war, and how to correct the foreign strategies to make a better world system .
Profile Image for Hrvoje.
3 reviews
December 30, 2012
Concise and plain book. Although written 12 yrs ago It predicted current decline of American power through the lens of sociology, antropology and demography (unlike similar books by Zakaria or Fergusson mostly focused on the context of the US foreign relations and economy). Though, book slightly underestimated the importance of todays China.
13 reviews
April 13, 2014
Well, outdated. Albeit some of the statistics are still valid and interesting, most of the "given facts/ prognosticated future" have been proven wrong. It might have been an interesting book in 2002, but with no impact or relevance on today's situation or explanations why the world transformed to "today"....
50 reviews20 followers
December 29, 2008
He undermines whatever valid points he makes (and there's not many, besides that the US is overextended militarily and massively in debt to China), by his conspiracy theory crap. Don't waste your time with this book.
Profile Image for Vladimir.
122 reviews4 followers
October 25, 2015
Despite some factological and even anthropological errors author did, esp. describing the Russia and Russian history, the book has valid points and describes the overall perception of the historical processes in an interesting manner.
Displaying 1 - 30 of 38 reviews

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