Telling one side of the story only
I grew up in Beijing and studied in US. This book resonates me a lot. There are many familiar locations and I used to go pass by them everyday, the Oriental Plaza, the Beijing Hotel, the Shunyi etc. Obviously this book is only telling one side of the story and the author pretended to be innocent (装糊涂). It feels more like 'cleaning the carpet after murder scene' (洗地) for himself and related people. I have tons of confusions after reading this book. So this is not a full review of Red Roulette rather than my own notes.
As a person like me followed the western media reports for Chinese gov official secrets, most of the book is no news. WSJ/BBG/FT/NYT their reports along with internet rumors have covered most of the meats of this book. I believe this is intentional -- Shum carefully selected those open stories and added some nonimportant salt, e.g. no one really cares ZhangPeiLi eats instant noodles in 5-star hotel or if GuLiPing is not into fashion. That's not real meat we readers are looking for.
The questions and top of minds.
* Who are the intended readers? Why is the book written in English? Obviously Shum is tri-lingual and speaks mother-tongue Mandarin. For this book's content, the best readers are people in China, right? Why there's no Chinese-version in the first print run? It looks very intentional.
* The author is trying to 'wash-white' himself (洗白). It is not up-to-Shum to state if an act is corruption, it is the law, also for CCP members, it is the discipline rules. For example, if an official A approved some lands acquisition knowing you've connections to Prime Minister Wen and you made huge money, and later on official A got promoted to higher-level GaoGan. Is this crime/corruption? From the surface, 1) the land acquisition has all sort of legit documents. 2) the official A got promoted since Wen supported him proactively. 3) The official A is very capable of getting things done. If we read them separately, they are all legit actions, no crime involved. But if we connect the dots, this is power-money-trade (权钱交易), a clear crime going on.
* For the 3rd-gen red son/daughters, author only wrote 3 of them, the already publicly known Jasime Li 李紫丹 and Alvine Jiang 江志诚 because of their high-profile activities. Also LiuShiLai who seems dealing with money at much smaller level (but still afford to live in Four-Season Residence in Beijing anyway).
* Did Shum really love Whitney Duan? Is it cause Whitney can bring Shum this hidden-China so Shum married her? Also, did they divorce because of Shum's political sense and intently started fighting against Duan?
The book described 3 major business, 1) Ping An stock 2) Airport City (北京航空城)3) Hua Du Hotel (later on Genesis 启皓北京, including Bulgari Hotel). From all these deals, Ping An stocks made their fortune the most and earliest. PingAn listed China A-share in 2007 during the peak bull run and its price never hit that high point after 14 yrs. Since they own 1% (Wen has 2% as stated in book), that's to say they probably pocketed ~$1B USD in 2007 money (Shum described "hundreds of millions dollars gain"). It made me thinking how come they spent too much efforts on the Airport City project , they can continue to play the stock market game like Winston Wen which is much easier.
Further more on Ping An, Whitney and Shum instate that they paid a 'fair price'. This is untrue. On the very-same day, China Central Bank's chief's son-in-law, Che Feng, also bought Ping An private stock. Ping An is state-owned and big meat -- everyone knows it. Not really as Shum described that no one wants.
Several one-side story as I observed,
1. There are many reports on Whitney in Chinese media too. And some reports contradicted the book. It is well-known that Whitney started real-estate business in Tianjin before her expansion to Beijing and Whitney knew Wen's relatives in Tianjin already. It can be verified by company filings as shown in Caixin Magazine. Shum only mentioned Whitney was 'selling some mainframe servers to banks'.
2. There is zero mentioning of their business with Wen's sons and daughters as well as Wen's younger brother. From public company filings, it is known that publicly that they have done business together. The author deliberately avoided this and added writing about Wen's wife's gigolo.
3. The author positioned to have setup a foundation to 'improve China'. This is untrue, or not 100$ sincere statement. The Kaifeng (凯风公益基金会)head is Yu Keping. Shum only mentioned Yu promoted democracy, but at the time of hiring Yu Keping is a key person to Hu Jintao on political advice. Obviously, they want to have influent on Hu beyond Wen family. And this is one important guanxi they were cultivating.
4. At the end, author left China, largely blaming political wind-shifting after Xi is in charge and blamed CCP's press on entrepreneurs. I don't quite buy-in this. What are you expecting Mr.Shum? Continue to collect money in China like before, this 'industrial-level corruption' as in Hu&Wen era using your guanxi? All your guanxi are cut by Xi, such as Ling JiHua, Sun ZhengCai, Wen Jiabao. Xi is probably not the best choice, or a intelligent guy but I kinda support him in this crackdown of guanxi corruption including princelings. Assume Whitney has cultivated Xi's family, the Author could be enjoying his above-Bulgari Hotel penthouse in Beijing and looking over all the embassy buildings.
5. At the very beginning, Shum set the tone that Whitney claimed to be 'no dirt'. This is very laughable since he had threatened Whitney for more money in the divorce court because he know what she has done. Also contradictory, he in the last paragraph, he still implies Duan is innocent by law because she is 'cautious'. What the author wants to say (to China) is that '*HE* is in line'.
6. For all the people got mentioned in the book, 99% of them are already detained or politically weak or politically too-strong-to-move. Only people like Chen Xi, Chen-min'er, Song Zhe got natural attitude. This is a smart-move to protect these people and himself. Other people heavily involved in investment business, e.g. Che Feng, or Zeng Qinghong's son or Liu YunShan's son are closely tied to Wen family.
There's one-story made me really sad, is that how Whitney and Shum treated that COSCO chief, the guy sold Ping An stocks to them. He didn't get promoted to GaoGan (vice-ministry admin level) and even his daughter asked for $500k USD they refused. This is very coldhearted. Although they claimed they paid a fair price (as I mentioned above), this is obviously a lie.
I haven't research into Genesis project (Hua Du), but what they claimed that they are the only-bidder in the land auction a lie. Everyone knows who they are so other bidders just don't want to bid. It is known to be a prime location in China's capital. Shum's argument makes no sense at all.
Shum and Duan lived a luxury life and in some way, it's hard to distinguish Great Ocean (泰鸿) v.s. Wen's money. They have more co-investment than stated in the book. Form my POV, Duan is too Chinese and didn't expand overseas, this is definitely a mistake. As I know nearly all early-new-richies have foreign passports and transferred assets. This short-sight and lack of international kindset killed Duan.
Last on Xi, for everyone's perspective, Xi is a open-minded towards westerner and more opening and people-loving in the very beginning. And people supported his anti-corruption efforts since it was way too much. One friend told me 'if Xi doesn't do this anti-corruption, the country probably won't exist' (不反腐,国家就没了).