Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis

by M. Granger Morgan, Max Henrion, Mitchell Small

The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty. Powerful computer environments and good graphical techniques for displaying uncertainty are just two of the more advanced topics addressed in later chapters.

346 pages, Paperback

First published August 31, 1990

Reviews

[An Te]

This is a helpful and practical aid to understanding the factors involved in the quantification of risks and the practical concerns a risk scientist need to be alive to in order to communicate and realize risk reduction at various population levels, i.e. individual, team, institutional, legal and societal.

There has been much practical advice conveyed by this book and I shall be sure to put these into action in my research programme. It places down the limits well to which institutionalized professionals are willing to yield to on 'risk terms' and how important it is to understand the motivations and desires of the professionals.