Następne 100 lat: Prognoza na XXI wiek
“Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman
In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expec...more
To make his point, he invoked chess on the grandmaster level: a world-class player has few winning moves open to him, but many losing ones, and his logic is that the grandmaster will se ...more
First, we are asked to accept geopolitical analysis, then we are asked to accept that George Friedman's analysis using geopolitics is accurate, and that his angle is the only one that counts.
Well I don't buy it. Most of the time he picks and chooses what specific world events to highlight to 'prove' his geopolitical forecast. I kept thinking of other events he ignored. I ...more
The next three chapters took about a week, and I found myself constantly checking my iPhone while I was reading it. I couldn't figure out why, and then I realized that the guy was probably just making shit up.
The reason the first sev ...more
The most difficult is the complexity of dealing with any topic beyond the window of 5 years. This is the problem with futurism in general. Predicting one year out is difficult but beyond 5 years you are descending into fantasy...a brief review of the futurist texts over the past 40 yrs. proves this point. Though these get a few things right most of what they have ...more
يرصد فريدمان في كتابه هذا أهم التغيرات التى ستطرأ على العالم في القرن الحادى والعشرين من نزاعات جيوسياسية وتكنولوجية وديموجرافية وعسكرية، كما يسرد بالتفصيل أه ...more
1- إن الجغرافيا التاريخية هي أهم عناصر القوة الدولية
2- من يسيطر على البحار يسيطر على طرق التجارة ويسيطر على العالم
3- فترة 20 سنة أكثر من كافية لحدوث تغييرات جذرية في موازين القوى العالمية
4- الصراع على الطاقة سيستمر لكن ليس في صورة نفط بل ستلعب الكهرباء والطاقة الشمسية أدواراً محورية وسيكون للقوى المسيطرة على الفضاء بالذات قصب السبق في ذلك
النصف الأول من ...more
كتاب جريء، محاولة استكناه التغيرات الجيوسياسية لمئة عام قادمة مهمة شبه مستحيلة ولكن ما يقدمه جورج فريدمان هنا يستحق القراءة والاهتمام، واستغرب كيف لم تتم ترجمة هذا الكتاب بعد رغم مرور 9 سنوات على صدوره، صحيح أن بعض فصول الكتاب تبدو كخيال علمي بحروب الفضاء التي يتوقعها فرديمان بل ويحدد الأطراف التي ستشنها ولكنه في النهاية يقدم رؤى جيوسياسية ممتازة ومنذرة.
A good history to start with and Friedman very much sticks to the belief that history will repeat itself with Poland as the new Germany in Europe trapped between Germany and Russia, two historic enemies. The US will treat it as it did West Germany. Turkey will rise as a Muslim power in the world. Poland is a bit of a stretch I feel. I would not have made Turkey a first choice, but Friedman backs up his argument pretty well, although he tends to forget that Turkey is ve ...more
His predictions are surprising in that they contradict almost everything the average person would trend ou ...more
PURPOSE OF THE BOOK
Author George Friedman states, "underneath the disorder of history, my task is to try to see the order-and to anticipate what events, trends, and technology that order will bring forth." He states his primary goal as transmitting a sense of the new century by identifying "the major tendencies - geopolitical, technological, demographic, cultur ...more
"The Next 100 Years" is an interesting look at what the twenty-first century will look and feel like based on geopolitics. It's a book that speculates the future by using history, trends and by applying the decline and fall of Europe as the centerpiece and its replacement the United States as its model. The author focuses on who would resist and how the United States would respond to their resistance as the driving forces behi ...more
Ironically, the things I like most about this book make me want to rate it a four. I love the book because it’s highly engaging, easy to read, and at times refuses to take itself (and the art of forecasting) too seriously.
I also love the book because it’s irreverent. Friedman’s “geopolitics” – as a kind of Greek or Shakespearean tragedy where the actors are not in control of themselves and even smart characters cannot help su ...more
George Friedman, contrary to many, speculates that the US will retain their dominance. To some exten ...more
He does mention women's ...more
So, how likely is this? Friedman admits that he will get details wrong, but believes that the overall direction of 21st century histor ...more
Friedman did a great job of laying out his vision for the next 30 years or so. He describes the economic, political, social and demographic forces that are shaping the world. That part was well worth reading and seemed fairly plausible.
The second half of the book reads like someone explaining "an awesome game of Risk" they played in excruciating detail. The circumstances leading up to this World War Three are also absurd, ...more
Why I started this book: Predictive books are fascinating, especially if you read them 5-15 years after they are published. Like this book of 2009.
Why I finished it: Friedman was very clear on his logic and his assumptions which made them more believable. However I couldn't refrain from an eye roll or two as he talked about how 2020s were going t ...more
George Friedman's The Next 100 Years first few chapters show some promise, but was troubling from the get go. This is most likely because I'm just coming off reading Samuel Huntington's incredible Clash of Civilizations so bear with me.
Friedman, for all his intelligence and geopolitical "expertise" fails to use a SINGLE SOURCE IN THE ENTIRE BOOK. Someone will pick this book up in a 100 years and die laughing at the complete lack of a single citation. If you're going to us ...more
Some of the predictions left me bummed out, particularly the one that space will inevitably be militarized. The author argues that the control of space will be just as crucial to being on top of the hierarchy as controlling the seas is now. It does make so ...more
This is the single most well-thought out book about the future I've ever read. It came highly recommended and delivered across the board. It's also the most optimistic futuristic book, particularly from an American perspective. the basic premise that America is only prepping for a second rise is fascinating. He is also entirely in the minority (I blame cable news, personally). ...more
Dr. Friedman is the author of The New York Times bestseller “The Next Decade: Where We’ve Been…and Where We’re Going,” which forecasts the major events and challenges that will test Am ...more