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Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages

Carlota Pérez

4.36 · Rating details · 423 ratings · 52 reviews

"Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital" presents a novel interpretation of the good and bad times in the economy, taking a long-term perspective and linking technology and finance in an original and convincing way. Carlota Perez draws upon Schumpeter's theories of the clustering of innovations to explain why each technological revolution gives rise to a paradigm ...more

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Paperback, 224 pages

Published February 26th 2003 by Edward Elgar Pub (first published October 1st 2002)

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May 11, 2014 Justin Mares rated it it was amazing

This was an exhausting read. I found the book really, really hard to get through, as it was almost like reading a textbook.

That said, the information in this book is critically important for anyone interested in innovation and investment cycles. It's already changed a lot of the way I think about innovation and investment. Overall, very worth reading - just set aside 4-5 hours on afternoon and approach it like you would a study project in college. ...more

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Feb 17, 2017 Ashraf Alhashim rated it it was ok

read this after hearing marc andreessen recommend it in a talk. found it to be boring and full of hindsight bias + connecting the dots of history in the aftermath.

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Jul 30, 2015 Jose Papo rated it it was amazing

This is one of the best books I read this year. The author goes to explain the cycles of innovation inside capitalism and how the technological revolutions are helped by Financial Capital and how the cycle always have some kind of shakeup. Te author relates also those trends with their social aspects and the disruption they brought to the social fabric. To do that she bases her work on Schumpeter, Neo-Schumpeterian authors and also on Thomas Kuhn "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions" about c ...more

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Jun 29, 2020 Jen rated it it was amazing

I generally love to highlight the paragraphs that I find insightful. When I read this book, however, I wanted to highlight the entire book!

After designating the major changes in technology systems as changes of techno-economic paradigm in the early 1980s, Carlota Perez offered new insights into these complex process of social, economic and technological change in this book.

Each technological revolution has led to the massive replacement of one set of technologies by another, either by outright I generally love to highlight the paragraphs that I find insightful. When I read this book, however, I wanted to highlight the entire book!

After designating the major changes in technology systems as changes of techno-economic paradigm in the early 1980s, Carlota Perez offered new insights into these complex process of social, economic and technological change in this book.

Each technological revolution has led to the massive replacement of one set of technologies by another, either by outright substitution or through the modernization of existing equipment, processes and ways of operation. Each involved profound changes in people, organizations and skills in a sort of habit-breaking hurricane. Each led to an explosive period in the financial markets.

The sequence technological revolution-financial bubble-collapse-golden age-political unrest recurs about every half century and is based on causal mechanisms that are in the nature of capitalism.

Over the period from 1770 to 2010, we have experienced five successive technological revolutions:
1. The Industrial Revolution started with Arkwright's mill opens in Cromford in 1771
2. Age of Steam and Railways started with test of the "Rocket" steam engine for the Liverpool-Manchester railway in 1829
3. Age of Steel, Electricity and Heaving Engineering started with the Carnegie Bessemer steel plant opens in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania in 1875
4. Age of Oil, the Automobile and Mass Production started with the first model T comes out of the Ford plant in Detroit, Michigan in 1908
5. Age of Information and Telecommunications with the Intel microprocessor announced in Santa Clara, California in 1971

In retrospect of history, we are definitely at the turning point of the information age.
When the economy is shaken by a powerful set of new opportunities with the emergence of the next technological revolution, society is still strongly wedded to the old paradigm and its institutional framework. The world of computers, flexible production and the Internet has a different logic and different requirements from those that facilitated the spread of the automobile, synthetic materials, mass production and the highway network. Suddenly, in relation to the new technologies, the old habits and regulations become obstacles, the old services and infrastructures are found wanting, the old organizations and institutions are inadequate. A new context must be created; a new "common sense" must emerge and propagate.

How do we think about capitalism at the turning point?
As with many processes in capitalism, it is by taking a successful behavior to its extreme that it turns into failure. And it is because of this failure that the appropriate behaviors, practices and norms will be devised, accepted and adopted. As usual, also, there is no mechanical guarantee that the crash will happen in any particular way. Nor can predictions be made about the length or depth of the recession, or about the type of solution applied. All that depends on a multitude of political and other factors that are specific in each case.

Overall, the writing was so concise and refined. This has become one of the very few books that I read word by word, rather than flying through the 170 pages within 2-3 hours. I have put this book next to my bed and will revisit often in the future. ...more

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Jan 11, 2021 Zhou Fang rated it really liked it

Shelves: investing

I put this on my list because Marc Andreessen highly recommended it in a talk he gave at Stanford (available on YouTube). This book is an absolute slog to get through due to its dense writing, excessive repetitiveness, and poor organization, but it contains some profound analysis. Carlota Perez focuses on the 50-60 year cycle of technological revolutions and the shifting role of financial capital along the way, and describes the paradigm shifts (this book is credited with popularizing the term) I put this on my list because Marc Andreessen highly recommended it in a talk he gave at Stanford (available on YouTube). This book is an absolute slog to get through due to its dense writing, excessive repetitiveness, and poor organization, but it contains some profound analysis. Carlota Perez focuses on the 50-60 year cycle of technological revolutions and the shifting role of financial capital along the way, and describes the paradigm shifts (this book is credited with popularizing the term) which occur in their wake. A technological revolution starts with a "big bang" in which a visible application of a technology is introduced. It then follows 3 main periods: (1) installation (2) turning point and (3) deployment. A rough outline of the cycle is as follows:

1. Installation - new technology begins to propagate, infrastructure is built, and a new set of best practices are implemented widely, causing a "paradigm shift." This is further subdivided into two phases:

a) Irruption - Begins with the "big bang" of a tech revolution, in which a highly visible and sufficiently low cost product grips the imagination of the public. Perez identifies 5: Arkwright's cotton mill (1771), 'Rocket' steam engine for the Liverpool-Manchester railway (1829), Carnegie Bessemer steel plant (1875), Ford Model T (1908), and Intel microprocessor (1971). The new products, backed by financial capital, start making inroads. Those who have a vested interesti n the previous paradigm face despair and impotence as a new era dawns

b) Frenzy - Financial capital drives intense buildup of new tech infrastructure. Paper wealth begins to decouple from production, and a gambling economy characterized by asset inflation takes over. Examples of miraculous multiplication of wealth abound, and excess money is poured into infrastructure for the new paradigm (canal mania, railway mania, Internet mania). Seeing that the technological opportunity cannot consume all of the capital, financial wizards develop new instruments and tools (such as derivatives) in an effort to continue the boom times of high returns. Speculation itself becomes an object of adulation, attracting more people to the capital markets, which in turn creates even more capital to propagate the mania. This creates structural tensions in the system as inequality increases and wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few

2) Turning Point - This is usually a recession or a financial panic that occurs as the unrealistic expectations of speculators eventually face reality and the bubble pops. A sharp crash in the market is a catalyst for society to re-examine the implications of the new paradigm, distribute its gains more evenly across society, and build institutions which are more fit to regulate actors. This causes financial capital to recouple with economic reality

3) Deployment - the new paradigm is now beginning to spread across to all of society, and this becomes the new definition of 'common sense' as the old paradigm is displaced

a) Synergy - The paradigm is extended across the entire productive structure. Optimism returns as real production growth is what's driving the economy. Production capital begins to take control as the influence of financial capital, scarred by the last bubble, wanes. A "good feeling" takes over as more parts of the economy participate in growth, and infrastructure which was built during the frenzy phase enable economies of scale which distribute the benefits of the new technology wider across society with price declines. Additional opportunities for job creation through follow-up opportunities that extend the paradigm push the society towards full employment. Eventually, the opportunities become saturated and the cycle arrives at maturity

b) Maturity - As the technological opportunity becomes saturated, workers begin to make demands on broken promises that were not realized. Social discontent from younger people arises as they arrive in a society that was supposed to be full of opportunity but is now struggling to create economic growth. With no more high growth opportunities, companies begin to struggle for market share, and idle capital begins to pile up as profitable opportunities seek new investment. This creates the possibility for financial capital to start the cycle anew, by investing in world-changing technologies, even at high risk, due to the dearth of investment opportunities

Perez argues that this loose structure of a technological revolution occurs for 3 main reasons:
1) Technology happens in clusters and spurts. A series of innovations are necessary to create the conditions for a paradigm shift. Once in place, the confluence of these factors attract a cluster of entrepreneurs, who further propel the explosion of innovation.

2) Functional separation between financial and production capital. Financial capital tries to take money and turn it into more money. Production capital tries to take profit-making ability and turn it into more profit-making ability. The latter is based on production of actual goods or services, and is path-dependent as it is fundamentally information-driven. Financial capital, on the other hand, usually does not gain any experience and can be withdrawn quickly. These characteristics decoupling of "paper wealth" from "real wealth" at various stages of the cycle.

3) Greater inertia to change of socio-institutional framework in comparison with techno-economic sphere (this is the way the author writes). Technology is pressured by economic competition, which pushes innovation along. However, as an entirely new paradigm is introduced, there is considerable inertia due to the many parties with vested interests in the previous paradigm and the ramp-phase required to learn to adapt to the new paradigm. This causes a lag in the ability of social institutions to properly match up with the broad social change brought about by the technological revolution.

Overall, this is a very insightful work, and reading it is worth the intense effort. You will come away with a thoughtful framework that will enable much clearer understanding of technological revolutions, and the role of financial capital plays in them. ...more

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Aug 03, 2011 Deniss Ojastu rated it it was amazing

Shelves: favorites, society-development

Very interesting perspective on how economic growth and decline periods are related to great technological inventions and their role in shaping societies. Everything is repeating, phase after phase. The role of financial capitals - loans, stock markets etc - is analysed in depth in the book, depicting in a very coherent manner how at times financial agents are treated as the main force behind the growth, yet at other time - as "evil genius". Great analysis on how the mix of technological innovat ...more

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Dec 18, 2010 Claude Rochet rated it it was amazing

Excellent and exceptionnal

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May 11, 2014 Jorge rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

quite possibly the best innovation economics book I've ever read. ...more

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Aug 28, 2020 Marks54 rated it really liked it

I first heard about her when I read a feature somewhere on influential women economists who deserve more notoriety. This book is a compilation of prior work by the author into a theory of technological revolutions. Since the focus in on a relatively small number of important historical events (five over two centuries), this is more of an interpretative framework than a conventional economic theory, but that is ok and I do not mean to parse words.

The core idea here is that significant technologic I first heard about her when I read a feature somewhere on influential women economists who deserve more notoriety. This book is a compilation of prior work by the author into a theory of technological revolutions. Since the focus in on a relatively small number of important historical events (five over two centuries), this is more of an interpretative framework than a conventional economic theory, but that is ok and I do not mean to parse words.

The core idea here is that significant technological revolutions occur over a long time period (50+ years) and involve a large number of related change events that occur over the course of a revolutiom. The boundaries are fuzzy and the start and finish of revolutions are seldom if ever clearly identified. You start with some technological event which demonstrates the possibility that the new technology can drastically change the ways that people live and work. The initial events must themselves be followed up upon to see if the new technology is as important as initially thought and whether there are also complementary inventions needed to improve performance (telephones and switchboard technology, for example).

If technological development is possible, then other waves of changes are needed for the technology to prosper. Financial support and appropriate vehicles are needed. It is also important to figure out how to organize production and achieve scale and scope economies. Additional supporting infrastructure and related businesses are also necessary. For example, think of everything that comes with the dominance of automobiles in the economies, from roads and traffic signals, to repair shops, drivers’ license bureaus, and even dealer networks. These developments are happen in fits and starts over long periods. There are successes as well as failures. There are financial bubbles and the crashes that follow. The stock market plays a hig role but one that is distinct from the production economy and GDP. Add to the mix that new technologies start to develop along the ways that the dynamics for changing an economy through technology.are highly complex. ...and this is only a thumbnail sketch.

So what is the point? Is this just a series of extended discussions of changes associated with railroads, autos, or computers? No - the point is that looking at these revolutions over a long period will reveal similarities and commonalities that hold, even though technological change in 2020 is very different from what it was in 1912 and the similarities help us better understand what is happening.

If “technological revolution” seems a bit unwieldy as a term, it reads much better to many than the phrase “50 year Kondratiev cycle”. This work extends economic research on business cycles, coming out of Joesph Schumpeter’s massive work on business cycles. This is the work that got Perez, along with Chris Freeman, some notoriety in economics. This is really interesting work and much more accessible than it has been in the economics journals. By the way, the originator of the Kondratiev cycles had trouble finding support for his work and did not live as long as one of his cycles. He was executed in Stalin’s Great Purge in 1938 at the age of 46. It is good to see his ideas continuing to find readers in the 21st century.

This might be a difficult book for some to engage in although there is not much in the way of tables or formulae. It is a dense set of interconnected frameworks that puts a lot on a reader. Those willing to engage may find it worthwhile. ...more

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Nov 03, 2018 Rajesh Kandaswamy rated it it was amazing

An excellent book that explains how technological revolutions occur, the phases that make it and the role of finance in it. The thesis is based on five technological resolutions since the onset of industrial age, each roughly running half a century. The author’ explanations are articulate and comprehensive. The first half on the phases are the most useful.

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Nov 16, 2020 Walter Cavinaw rated it it was amazing

Shelves: history, mechanics-of-historical-change, technological-innovation, own-it

## Summary

Perez describes a model for technological revolutions and how the behavior of financial capital relates to the phases of revolutions.

Technological revolutions are a feature of capitalism that occur as successive techno-economic paradigm shifts. A techno-economic paradigm describes the organization of businesses and the economy using best practices that have been established as a result of a cluster of new technologies. The paradigm diffuses across the economy in phases and eventually c ...more

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Mar 26, 2018 Andrew rated it it was amazing

Shelves: favorites

Perez articulates a simple but powerful template for technological innovation and the adoption cycle. The stylized model that she presents is both general enough to describe commonalities between all such cycles, and specific enough in that it recognizes the variance in how economic phenomena actually transpire. The model consists of four phases – irruption, frenzy, synergy, and maturity – and deftly describes the tension between agents of technological change, the real economy, the financial or ...more

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Apr 29, 2019 Alex Daifotis rated it liked it

Very mixed feelings about this one. Definitely a powerful set of ideas and intuitions, but it felt painfully, and I mean excruciatingly painfully self-congratulatory. I'm happy I got the ideas but this could have been a long article rather than a book, and the quality of the historical case studies felt low to me. Underwhelmed overall. ...more

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Mar 08, 2015 Monik Sheth rated it really liked it

Especially useful for those interested in tech startups & venture capital.

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Aug 01, 2015 Jon C. rated it it was amazing

Changed the way I look at the world. Automatic five stars. Plus graphs and tables so you can pretend you read if you didn't! ...more

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Feb 28, 2019 Stephen Muench marked it as someday-maybe

Shelves: finance, startup, business

Recommended by Fred Wilson at https://avc.com/2015/02/the-carlota-p... ...more

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Jun 29, 2019 Stuart Berman rated it it was amazing

Shelves: technology, history, innovation, business, economics, politics

Confused by the social turmoil we see around us today? You think you know why? Do you know we have been seeing this cycle for around 250 years? Do you think 'business cycles' are bad or need to be prevented?

The thesis of Carlota Pérez research is that since the beginning of the first industrial revolution 250 years ago, there have been regular technology revolutions lasting 50-60 years each, or about the length of our adulthoods (how long people remember history and our individual experiences).

E ...more

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Feb 17, 2021 Nishu rated it it was amazing

I found this book both informative and highly relevant to the political unrest the United States (and other countries) have seen 2016 - 2021. Dr. Perez generally outlines the boom bust cycles of new technological revolutions and the relationship financial capital has with each new "techno-economic" paradigm. For me, this helped contextualize our current technological age - which she calls the "Age of Information and Telecommunications". The book outlines how this age started around the 1970s wit I found this book both informative and highly relevant to the political unrest the United States (and other countries) have seen 2016 - 2021. Dr. Perez generally outlines the boom bust cycles of new technological revolutions and the relationship financial capital has with each new "techno-economic" paradigm. For me, this helped contextualize our current technological age - which she calls the "Age of Information and Telecommunications". The book outlines how this age started around the 1970s with the advent of the microprocessor and shows how an initial "Irruption" phase, where rapid experimentation with the new technology led to new firms, resulted in a "Frenzy" in which financial capital over-speculated on technology's promise and led to the 2001 crash. She highlights how in other ages, the next phase of "Synergy" is when production capital is in control (which mirrors 2001 - 2008) and finally ends in a "Maturity" phase where the new paradigm and its firms have taken hold, government regulation steps in, and financial capital begins to look elsewhere for growth.

First off, this book does a marvelous job of pattern matching across different ages in the lifetime of capitalism. My clear takeaway was that we're arriving at an inflection point in the next 5 to 10 years where the information revolution will fully mature and we'll begin to see the next big bang. I have been trying to predict what field that might come in: AI or bioengineering are two that come top of mind. Regardless, it seems that government regulation of technology will be a required next step, potentially coming only after a burst in the technology stock bubble and potential geopolitical conflict. With these events, the socio-institutional frameworks that come from that can setup the next big bang.

My outstanding question: this book covers the phases of democratic capitalism. If China takes the world stage and is at the forefront of the next irruption, what does this model look like under state capitalism where financial and productive economies are controlled by the government? I wonder if this model still holds. ...more

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Jan 04, 2021 Oneeb rated it really liked it

A technological revolution is a cluster of new technologies, products and industries causing an upheaval in the economy and propelling a long term surge in development.

The 5 technological revolutions of the past 2 centuries happened every 50 years and they were:
1. Industrial revolution 1771
2. Steam engine railway 1829
3. Heavy engineering, steel , electricity 1875
4. Oil, automobile etc 1908
5. It, telecom, Intel, microprocessor 1971
6.FinTech cryptocurrency 2020 ??

4 phases of financial growth model ...more

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Jul 27, 2019 Christopher J Finlayson rated it it was amazing

The author paints a compelling picture of the nature and spread of technology in long waves. Her views on the interplay of financial capital, production capital and the socio-political system were particularly interesting.

The Casino Capital frenzy phase typically results in a crash, flowing an installation period of 40 years when the technology has its real impact on society. This spread reshapes the real economy and the disruption creates pressure for political reform.

The trouble with long wa ...more

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Nov 07, 2017 Ben rated it really liked it

CP : 'When I talk about a possible European way of life, I imagine multiple innovations that define different variants of the aspirational “good life” with lots of technology and human-based services, plus health and creativity. That is even easier for Europeans than adopting a standardized American way of life (which they happily did). But to say “smart green growth” should be the general direction, as I would suggest, opens all the space in the world for variety while fostering convergence in ...more

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Jan 21, 2021 Elan rated it liked it

Shelves: economics-finance, history

Writing style made it feel more of an academic publication than best seller, but book outlines the history of economic cycles for technology revolutions and the implications for the current cycle.

Irruption --> Frenzy -- > Turning Point (Crash eg 2001) --> Synergy --> Maturity

Each phase has unique dynamics for legacy companies, stage of technological adoption, capital allocation/valuation and social/political issues such as widening wealth gaps and government regulation.

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May 13, 2018 Giorgio Giuliani rated it it was amazing

This is probably the best book I've ever read on technology and its impacts on society.

Carlota Perez provides an overarching framework that maps out different phases and helps to understand a lot of the complex period we are living.

Really suggested for people who want to go beyond appearance and buzzwords. ...more

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Oct 07, 2018 Nynke Doesburg rated it it was amazing

Shelves: business-administration

Perez has very carefully and deliberately mapped out the similarities between the five technological revolutions. I found her way of thinking fascinating, and her model valuable. Anyone who is interested in the cyclical movement of capitalist economies should read this. It not only offers insight in historical paradigms, it also gives tools for the future.

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Mar 31, 2020 Marcus Gitau rated it it was amazing

A fascinating study at the long waves of capitalism. Perez examines markets from the perspective of innovations and explains how new technologies have the potential to define socio-techno-economic paradigms.

Personally I believe she has overlooked the importance of energy efficiency, aside from that her model is a great tool to understand where we have come from.

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Jan 12, 2020 Dominic Heng rated it it was amazing

A book that was written as a project done by Carlota that did a lookback into the past 5 major technlogical revolutions.

Technlogical revolutions does not mean just the technology itself, it means the value chain, marketing, fulfillments etc...

Great book.e

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Mar 14, 2020 Jimmy rated it it was amazing

Shelves: cards, profound

This is a great book. Very enlightening though a little repetitive.

--
1. Type: Theoretical book.
2. Main idea: Technological revolution and its relationship with financial capital.
3. Major parts:
a. Process of technological revolution.
b. Relations between technological revolution and financial capital.
c. Internal forces the produces the recurring cycles.
4. Problems?
What is the relationship between technological revolution and financial capital? What's the process of change? What are the interval fo ...more

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Apr 15, 2020 Eric rated it really liked it

dense. This is a deep exploration of the relationships between markets and tech surges. Working in technology and watching COVID-19 change the world made this very applicable. I was surprised by how much was relevant. I won't lie, this read was a slog, but useful for sure. ...more

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Aug 31, 2017 Rohit Gattani rated it it was amazing

Intense Academic read but very insightful.

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Feb 26, 2019 Rob Schmults rated it really liked it

Super interesting and relevant - just a bit dry. It’s a reasonably quick read so the dryness is tolerable even if prevents a 5 star review.

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About Carlota Pérez

Carlota Pérez

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Carlota Pérez is a British-Venezuelan scholar specialising in technology and socio-economic development. She researches the concept of Techno-Economic Paradigm Shifts and the theory of great surges, a further development of Schumpeter's work on Kondratieff waves. In 2012 she was awarded the Silver Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation.

Perez is currently Centennial Pro ...more

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“The entrepreneurs of new firms as much as the management of the old
(whether modernizing or not) are forced to do whatever is necessary to attract
the players in the casino and then worry as much – or more – about the perfor-
mance of their stock valuations as about their actual profits. Financial capital
reigns arrogant and production capital has no alternative but to adapt to the
new rules; some agents with glee, others with horror.” — 0 likes

“The entrepreneurs of new firms as much as the management of the old (whether modernizing or not) are forced to do whatever is necessary to attract the players in the casino and then worry as much – or more – about the perfor-mance of their stock valuations as about their actual profits. Financial capital reigns arrogant and production capital has no alternative but to adapt to the
new rules; some agents with glee, others with horror.” — 0 likes

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