Well written book by one of the best columnists worldwide.
The book is at times a bit repetitive, and for someone following international news closely it does not always contain a lot of new information.
Introduction
- The strongman style is not confined to authoritarian systems, it is also common among elected politicians in democracices
- Since 2005 every year number of countries where freedom has diminished has been larger than increase in political and civil liberties
- Political style of strongman puts the leader's instincts above the law and institutions
- The tendency for Western commentators to initially mistake strongman leaders for liberal reformers is a pattern
- Strongman are part of continuum. One end unchallenged autocrats (china, Saudi). Th en figures in middle like Putin and Erdogan. Then politicians in democracies with contempt for democratic norms like Trump Orban Modi and Bolsenaro
- As a result of international movement towards personalised politics, it has become harder to maintain a clear line between the authoritarian and democratic worlds.
- There are four cross-cutting characteristics that are common to the strongman style: the creation of a cult of personality; contempt for the rule of law; the claim to represent the real people against the elites' politics driven by fear and nationalism
- Another common aspect of the cult of personality is the merging of the interests of the strongman and of the state
- Strongman also typically believe that institutions and the law are standing in the way of what needs to be done
- They claim to have an intuitive understanding and sympathy for ordinary folk
- The strongman also typically espouse traditional views on the family, sexuality and gender. They scoff at the political correctness of liberal politicians
- Their success is a symptom of the crisis in liberalism. That crisis is multi-faceted, but can be broken down into four elements: economic, social, technological and geopolitical
- Many of the strongman leaders who have emerged outside the west have capitalised on the frustrations created by weak states that seem to have failed to deal with street crime and high-level corruption
- It is when economic grievances are linked to broader fears - such as immigration, crime or national decline - that strongman leaders really come into their own
- Strongman leaders often play upon a deep fear that dominant majority is about to be displaced, suffering enormous cultural and economic losses in the process
- Asian nationalism is driven by rising expectations; the West's nationalism is driven by disappointed hopes. But the political outcome is surprisingly similar: a call to make the country great again
Putin: the archetype
- Both the archetype and model for current generation of strongman leaders
- Within a year of Putin taking power, two owners of independent media fled the country
- Putin's key contact was Sobchak, one of his former law professors, who became St Petersburg first democratically elected mayor in 1918
- Most of his supporters insist that he knows that the USSR belongs to history
- 2007 speech at MSC: accuses US of almost unconstrained hyper use of military force in IR and plunging the world into an abyss of conflicts
- Putin is both an angry nationalist and cynical manipulator
- If you mention brutal behaviour of RUS in Chechnya or Syria you will always have Iraq thrown at you
- In afterglow Crimea, Putin came close to achieving ultimate goal of strongman ruler: complete identification of nation with the leader
- If Putin is both a genuine nationalist and frontman for a corrupt regime, the link between the two is the deep and corrosive cynicism that runs through RUS leaders approach to politic and life
Erdogan: from liberal reformer to authoritarian strongman
- Obama spoke more to Erdogan than any other leader in his first term
- Erdogan was forced to step down as mayor in 1998 for citing a poem with 'the mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers'
- In 1996 he had said as mayor: democracy is like a trim, you ride it until you arrive at your designation, then you step off
- Much of the liberalising measures of the early Erdogan years also helped Islamists strengthen their position in society (veils at uni's i.e.)
Xi Jinping: China and the return of the cult of personality
- One Chinese dissident told me that the only thing that had made him positively of Xi was meeting his daughter, she was not entitled, but intelligent and open to the outside world
- By some estimates 14% of the top cadres of the party were arrested and imprisoned as part of the anti-corruption campaign
- Many feared Xi believed Beijings own propaganda: that the problems in KH were the product of agitation by hostile foreign forces.
- Chinese gov statistics, which showed a 60% reduction in the birth rate in Xinjiang, led to allegations that these measures went beyond brutal repression and were producing a cultural genocide
Modi: a strongman politics in the world's largest democracy
- The group had traditionally run post-index India, but no swept aside by Model. This old elite had 'lost touch with the real India' (like Trump's narrative)
- As many of Modi's followers see it, even Indian independence in 1947 did not end Hindu subservience. for most of the post-independence era, India was led by the Congress party, which Modi and his Bharitiya Janata Party accuse of relying on a Muslim vote bank
- Founded in 1925, the RSS was dedicated to the idea that India is in essence a Hindu nation. Its founder Hedgewar was admirer of Mussolini. Former RSS activist assassinated Ghandi in 1948
- Some BJP members of parliament are perpare dot give public vote to a radically different view: that Gandhi assassin was a national hero.
- Modi's meteoric rise has been fuelled by the party's championship of the destruction of a mosque in the city of Ayodhya, which it claimed had been built on a site holy to Hindus
- Reputation Modi (killing thousands after anti-Muslim riots) lead him to be banned from entering the US until his election in 2014
- 2015 Obama praised Modi for dynamism and potential
- In early years in office little confirmed worst fears of critics, there was little inter-communal violence
- Modi doesn't say the worst stuff himself, he poses for selfies with those who do
- Strongman leaders have a tendency to become steadily more autocratic and arbitrary the longer they stay in office
- 2019 Modi gov abolished special constitutional status of only majority-muslim state, Jammu and Kashmir, and followed this up with a brand crackdown on civil liberties
- Amnesty forced to close its doors in 2021. In 2021 for first time since 1997 partly free by Freedom House
- While the Supreme Court remains formally independent from the gov, some judges seemed uncomfortably close to Modi
- The West is no longer a possible threat to Indian security
- I could be argued that India's own slide into illiberalism was strengthening the global trend towards authoritarianism
Orban Kzcynski and the rise of illiberal Europe
- In september 2015, Orban was invited to speak at the CSU conference. He told them the crisis offers the chance for national Christian ideology to regain supremacy not only in Hungary but in the whole of Europe. We are experience the end of all the liberal bubble, and era is coming to an end.
- Kzcynski had cast himself as student of Orban. They diced they needed to control the institutions of the states, courts, media and schools
- Orban in 2020: we use to think that EU was our future, today we are the future of the EU
- 1994 bad elections breaking point Orban: began to break with older urban liberals from Budapest
- In 2018 transparency international estimated some 40% of public contracts in Hungary awarded after only one bidder.
- CDU did its utmost to shit its eyes for erosion democracy because it would cost precious parliamentary moajority
- In 2017 prominent academic belied the state media in Poland was now more pro-gov than in 1970s
- In 2013 about 1/3 of Polish believed Smolensk was a mass assasination
Boris Johnson and Brexit Britain
- Of course im in favour tof the EU, how could you not be (Johnson to Rachmann in 2002)
- 2008 mayor London: moved by citizenship ceremony
- Behind closed doors Johnson expressed qualms about the Turkey-bashing
- Gove had announced Johnson was not fit for office
- Shortly before quitting as foreign secretary Johnson had told group fellow Tories: I am increasingly admiring of Trump, imagine him doing Brexit
- 2019: 54% Britons agreed UK needed strong ruler, willing to break the rules
- The country has an unwritten constitution and has relied on the good chap model of governance
Trump - The American Strongman
- I saw similar complacency of exceptionalism in the British establishment
- Fiona Hill: we were arrogant enough to think that what happened in Ukrain and Moldova could never happen to us
- Race and ethnicity were the single best predictor of a vote for Trump
- Firehouse of falsehoods taken over from Putin: so many different conspiracy theories and alternative facts that the truth becomes one version of events among many
- Hill: Trump suffered from autocrat envy. Trump nicknamed Erdogan the Sultan and bantered about how jealous he was of boundless ability Erdogan to get his way at home
- Trump: Xi should go ahead with building camps in Xinjiang, was the right thing
Duterte and the erosion of democracy in South East Asia
- Dutarte put the theory to the test: he openly boasts of having killed people, of stubbing someone to death in a drunk beach brawl, of gunning down suspected murderers, of hurling another murderer from a helicopter
- 3/4 of member national congress Philippines come from traditional political dynasties
- What sets Duterte apart from other strongman is his lack of ideology. Puts him closer to Bolsenaro and Trump
The rise of MBS and the Netanyahu phenomenon
- The new Saudis strongman has swept away the old system of collective royal leadership based on seniority and consensus
- Frequent whatsapp messages between MBS and Kushner both fascination and concern of US intelligence
- Bibi on if humouring Obama by committing to two-state solution, 'obviously I am doing that'
- View that to secure international acceptance with Arab neighbours, Israel had to make peace with Palestinians - Netanyahu switched it other way around
- Labour was led by Eastern European exiles, who came from the left and regarded as intellectual and social elite. Likud drew support from Sephardic Jews who had been expelled or emigrated from Arab nations, and later from immigrants who arrived from RUS
- Trip to Israel swiftly became almost a compulsory stop for the new generation of strongman leaders
- The paradox under MBS social freedoms expanding against backdrop of a reign of terror.
Bolsenaro, Almo and the return of the Latin MAmerican Caudillo
- Until early 80s, Latin America has been dominated by authoritarian leaders; in 1978 there were just three democracies
- Bolsenaro social conservatism in line with voters: in 2020 61% supported plan Bolsenaro to open military schools, and majorities opposed gay marriage and abortion
- Coalition Bolsenaro: beef bible bullets
- Most important 1982 debt crisis: dictatorship buckled under opprobrium of economic failure
- Corbyn described Chanvez once as an inspiration to all of us fighting back against austerity and neoliberal economics
- Similarities between initial responses Bolseonaro and Amlo demonstrated right and left populism often underpinned by same instincts
Abiy Ahmed and democratic disillusionment in Africa
- Recurring pattern. Charismatic new leader emerges, portrayed by west as liberal reformer, then awkward facts emerge and reformer becomes authoritarian. Between 2018 and 2020 whole cycle with Abiy Ahmed
- CCP has invited African politicians to training programs, about Chinese culture but also on propaganda, managing opposition and monitor dissent
Merkel, Macron and EU struggle against strongman
- Geithner, the US treasury secretary, remarked after the global financial crisis that Merkel was the only world leader who was numerate
- When the far right is at 5% you can ask the police to keep an eye on them. When they are at 25% they are the police
- 2019: frustration in DUI with Macron shooting from the hip. One suggested Macron intellectual version of Trump
- 2021: 84% French agree violence getting worse, 73% France collapsing and 45% soon civil war
- French president even awarder France highest award to El-Sisi
- Darmanin interior minister: islamism Trojan horse containing a fragmentation bomb that is targeting our country
Soros, Bannon and battle of ideas
- Soros: how long before CCP lose grip power. Rachmann: 30 years. Soros: pity I hoped to see it
- Phiosophical justification for authoritarian rule: idea that there could be no such thing as truly independent institutions or objective truth. About book Carl Schmitt
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