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Betting in the Twenty-First Century Challenges and Opportunities for the Modern Punter
"This is one of the most interesting books on racing and finding winners we've seen in a long time", Racing Ahead Magazine (August 2020).Horse racing maybe one of the oldest of all sports, and in its essentials it would appear to have undergone virtually no change over the centuries – it is still about thoroughbreds racing across a large field – but in so many other ways it is constantly evolving and the pace of change has accelerated considerably in the twenty-first century.The changes over the last twenty years have been profound and have radically altered the betting environment for the punter. These changes though have largely gone unnoticed by most of the betting public. However those that have noticed and adapted to the changes – mainly the technically savvy and analytical– have been able to reap the rewards at the expense of the rest. Betting in the Twenty-First Challenges and Opportunities for the Modern Punter explains how the advent of betting exchanges, the widespread proliferation of online form databases, automated betting systems, improvements in jockeyship, and scientific advances in the breeding and training of racehorses have changed the racing game fundamentally since the turn of the century. It is now harder than ever for most punters to make their betting pay.However, in this book you will learn how you can stay ahead of the crowd. The book is packed full of original research and statistics that will give you an edge. It includes numerous betting systems and staking plans to help you maximise your returns. It also offers advice on the skills and tools that you will need to be a successful punter in the modern era. A must read for all serious punters.
303 pages, Paperback
Published January 1, 2020
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April 17, 2021
Buyer beware: this book is about betting on horse racing in the UK and Ireland. If you want to find out about betting on football or other sports, look elsewhere. The scope is fine for me because I’ve been betting on horse racing for over thirty years and I rarely bet on anything else.
I bought this book for two reasons. First, in recent years I’ve found that Clive Holt’s Fineform system from the 1980s is no longer delivering for me. Second, I have several books on horse racing by Clive Holt and Braddock but they’re in my storage unit and I can’t find them. I was hoping to dig them out and come up with a new system but instead I bought this book, and I’m glad I did. Taylor explains how much horse racing has changed in the last twenty years, and although I follow the turf, much of what he said has passed me by.
The author’s approach can be condensed into two points: you need to do masses of data analysis to produce a profitable system; and you need to update or abandon your system frequently to keep ahead of the game. This could explain why Fineform doesn’t seem to work anymore.
I’m sure the author is referring to Fineform when he says that many years ago he bought a system that was based on awarding points for each horse’s last two runs, with five points for a win etc. In fact that is not a fair summary of Clive Holt’s system. He also awarded extra points for course and distance winners, which makes sense. He also said that his points system should ideally be used only to find the three or four most likely contenders. In his books he then goes into massive detail about how to assess form, which kinds of races to bet on and how much to bet. It all made sense when it was first produced, and when I followed his system I could get reasonable results. However, now when I use the bare ratings I rarely get in the frame. In fact, Taylor cites statistics suggesting that a horse that came second last time out is more likely to win next time than a horse that one last time. Food for thought.
I have to say, that if you are looking for one winning system, you won’t find it here. As Taylor frequently points out, any system will only work for a short period, until other punters hook onto the insights that you used to develop it. As soon as your results begin to deteriorate, you need to move on. The point is that it isn’t just about picking winners. You have to find winners at the right prices if you want to remain profitable. So, what you get from Taylor is the bare bones of some potentially profitable systems. It is then up to you to do the research, tweak the rules and get an edge over other punters.
One fact that Taylor cites that really struck me is how much the available “pot” of money bet on horses is declining as punters turn to football, poker and other betting opportunities. He believes that one remedy for this is to give punters more data, and the two data sets he thinks we really need are sectional speed times (how fast a horse was travelling at various points in a race, not just at the end) and horses’ weight before they race. This kind of data has been available in the US for years, but not in the UK, although some courses are equipped to record sectional times.
A couple of further points. Taylor refers to Betfair and he does give some ideas for using Betfair to hedge your bets as a backer and a layer, but if you want to explore Betfair in depth, you’ll need to check out the many books specifically about Betfair. Another point is that Taylor – like Clive Holt – does not recommend using accumulators. Unlike Holt he does see limited potential in each way betting e.g. for eight horse races, but like most professionals he seems to steer clear of win doubles, tri-casts etc. They clearly work for the bookies, not for the punter.
I would recommend this book to anyone who is looking for profitable betting systems for horse racing and who has the patience to develop them.
I bought this book for two reasons. First, in recent years I’ve found that Clive Holt’s Fineform system from the 1980s is no longer delivering for me. Second, I have several books on horse racing by Clive Holt and Braddock but they’re in my storage unit and I can’t find them. I was hoping to dig them out and come up with a new system but instead I bought this book, and I’m glad I did. Taylor explains how much horse racing has changed in the last twenty years, and although I follow the turf, much of what he said has passed me by.
The author’s approach can be condensed into two points: you need to do masses of data analysis to produce a profitable system; and you need to update or abandon your system frequently to keep ahead of the game. This could explain why Fineform doesn’t seem to work anymore.
I’m sure the author is referring to Fineform when he says that many years ago he bought a system that was based on awarding points for each horse’s last two runs, with five points for a win etc. In fact that is not a fair summary of Clive Holt’s system. He also awarded extra points for course and distance winners, which makes sense. He also said that his points system should ideally be used only to find the three or four most likely contenders. In his books he then goes into massive detail about how to assess form, which kinds of races to bet on and how much to bet. It all made sense when it was first produced, and when I followed his system I could get reasonable results. However, now when I use the bare ratings I rarely get in the frame. In fact, Taylor cites statistics suggesting that a horse that came second last time out is more likely to win next time than a horse that one last time. Food for thought.
I have to say, that if you are looking for one winning system, you won’t find it here. As Taylor frequently points out, any system will only work for a short period, until other punters hook onto the insights that you used to develop it. As soon as your results begin to deteriorate, you need to move on. The point is that it isn’t just about picking winners. You have to find winners at the right prices if you want to remain profitable. So, what you get from Taylor is the bare bones of some potentially profitable systems. It is then up to you to do the research, tweak the rules and get an edge over other punters.
One fact that Taylor cites that really struck me is how much the available “pot” of money bet on horses is declining as punters turn to football, poker and other betting opportunities. He believes that one remedy for this is to give punters more data, and the two data sets he thinks we really need are sectional speed times (how fast a horse was travelling at various points in a race, not just at the end) and horses’ weight before they race. This kind of data has been available in the US for years, but not in the UK, although some courses are equipped to record sectional times.
A couple of further points. Taylor refers to Betfair and he does give some ideas for using Betfair to hedge your bets as a backer and a layer, but if you want to explore Betfair in depth, you’ll need to check out the many books specifically about Betfair. Another point is that Taylor – like Clive Holt – does not recommend using accumulators. Unlike Holt he does see limited potential in each way betting e.g. for eight horse races, but like most professionals he seems to steer clear of win doubles, tri-casts etc. They clearly work for the bookies, not for the punter.
I would recommend this book to anyone who is looking for profitable betting systems for horse racing and who has the patience to develop them.
Displaying 1 - 1 of 1 review