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Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future
Scenario Planning Managing for the Future Gill Ringland "Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must-read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice." Arie De Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of The Living Company "Never since the great geographical expansions of the eighteenth century has so much latent potential been met with tools so ill-fitted to harness it. Information technology will change how, where, when we work. Scenario Planning offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to this and other forms of complexity; offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change." Oliver Sparrow, Chatham House Forum Business today operates in a world of major change. Economies, commerce and lifestyles are constantly shifting but it is the information revolution which will prove the most radical since its agricultural and industrial counterparts. It cannot be constrained by borders but is simultaneously reaching across the world. In this environment, the techniques for planning business over the past decades are no longer sufficient. Forecasts based on current trends, or estimates of growth based on history are in danger of becoming obsolete all too quickly. The idea in the early days of mainframe computers that 'every major country will need one' demonstrates how uncertain the future can really be. The scenario planning techniques described in this book will enable anyone to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Key features
* detailed 'how to' look for early indicators of directions, and identify possible courses of action for those new to scenarios.
* extensive case studies, including ICL, British Airways and United Distillers.
* includes 'do' as well as 'do not' examples to aid practitioners; tells you what works when and why.
* takes a conceptual, rather than a mathematical approach.
The overall message of this book is that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but they are powerful weapons in managing the uncertainties of the future. Jacket illustration by Nick Orsborne
* detailed 'how to' look for early indicators of directions, and identify possible courses of action for those new to scenarios.
* extensive case studies, including ICL, British Airways and United Distillers.
* includes 'do' as well as 'do not' examples to aid practitioners; tells you what works when and why.
* takes a conceptual, rather than a mathematical approach.
The overall message of this book is that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but they are powerful weapons in managing the uncertainties of the future. Jacket illustration by Nick Orsborne
- GenresBusiness
422 pages, Hardcover
First published October 30, 1997
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Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews
June 4, 2016
In introducion author wrote, "I am not an expert in scenario planning." I confirm. Through the book Ringland wanted whet appetite on the scenario method. She failed it.
1. Poor examples and outdated content. Due to the specific historical context descriptions of cases (including the selection of cases) have little substantive value (year: 1998)
2. Content is overloaded. It does not help quite readable structure of the publication.
3. Content:
Chapter I. Interestingly described is a section on the history of scenario plannig to early 90s. Further information can be found at Wikipedia, or in any article about the basics of scenario planning.
Chapter II focuses on methods. What should be the essence of the publication, according to me it is the weakest link. The author sparing excessive amount of drawings, rather than make the effort to describe that in a simple and clear way would explain what are the various methods. Besides the description of the methodology (as well as their choice) made by Ringland is to slip on the topic. (As a matter of fact is their [methods] so much, how many practitioners are). Wherein the methods are different in? What they have in common? What is their efficiency, wider use of perspective, what is the future of the scenario planning? You will not know that from this book.
Chapter III or case studies. So, describing the operation without giving effects. I have the impression that the author wanted to cram this as many case studies at the expense of their quality.
Chapter IV. At times interesting.
4. The book is promoted introduction written by the eminent futurist Peter Schwartz. Why he agreed to it, I have no idea. He can not read the book, or read, and caused shame he wrote (merely!) two pages, where only one paragraph refers to the content contained in the book.
In sum.
One star plus second for the section: "Scenarios for Organizations in the 21st."
This is not a text for either beginners or practitioners. First understand a little, for others it will be a waste of time. In addition, poor bibliography indicates shallow treatment topic.
1. Poor examples and outdated content. Due to the specific historical context descriptions of cases (including the selection of cases) have little substantive value (year: 1998)
2. Content is overloaded. It does not help quite readable structure of the publication.
3. Content:
Chapter I. Interestingly described is a section on the history of scenario plannig to early 90s. Further information can be found at Wikipedia, or in any article about the basics of scenario planning.
Chapter II focuses on methods. What should be the essence of the publication, according to me it is the weakest link. The author sparing excessive amount of drawings, rather than make the effort to describe that in a simple and clear way would explain what are the various methods. Besides the description of the methodology (as well as their choice) made by Ringland is to slip on the topic. (As a matter of fact is their [methods] so much, how many practitioners are). Wherein the methods are different in? What they have in common? What is their efficiency, wider use of perspective, what is the future of the scenario planning? You will not know that from this book.
Chapter III or case studies. So, describing the operation without giving effects. I have the impression that the author wanted to cram this as many case studies at the expense of their quality.
Chapter IV. At times interesting.
4. The book is promoted introduction written by the eminent futurist Peter Schwartz. Why he agreed to it, I have no idea. He can not read the book, or read, and caused shame he wrote (merely!) two pages, where only one paragraph refers to the content contained in the book.
In sum.
One star plus second for the section: "Scenarios for Organizations in the 21st."
This is not a text for either beginners or practitioners. First understand a little, for others it will be a waste of time. In addition, poor bibliography indicates shallow treatment topic.
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August 1, 2020plan B is not enough
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews