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Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy

Matthew R. Simmons

3.79 · Rating details · 605 ratings · 50 reviews

Twilight in the Desert reveals a Saudi oil and production industry that could soon approach a serious, irreversible decline. In this exhaustively researched book, veteran oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his three-plus decades of insider experience and more than 200 independently produced reports about Saudi petroleum resources and production operations. He un ...more

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Paperback, 428 pages

Published June 1st 2006 by Wiley (first published June 10th 2005)

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Oct 03, 2014 John Nelson rated it liked it · review of another edition

The "peak oil" theory holds that the world is running out of oil resources, production soon will begin a precipitous decline, and terrible consequences will result. This theory has been advanced every few years since at least the early 1950s. However, the predicted catastrophe never comes to pass.

This book, published in 2005, represents perhaps the most recent iteration of this theory. The author exhaustively demonstrates that the small number of very large oil fields on which Saudi Arabia's oil The "peak oil" theory holds that the world is running out of oil resources, production soon will begin a precipitous decline, and terrible consequences will result. This theory has been advanced every few years since at least the early 1950s. However, the predicted catastrophe never comes to pass.

This book, published in 2005, represents perhaps the most recent iteration of this theory. The author exhaustively demonstrates that the small number of very large oil fields on which Saudi Arabia's oil industry is based are aging, new fields are not being found, and that Saudi Arabia's ability to act as the world's "reserve producer" of oil may soon come to an end.

At the same time, the author completely missed the boom in hydrological fracturing, or "fracking," and horizontal drilling which was gathering force just as this book was published. Indeed, the only mention of these techniques in Twilight in the Desert comes in the context of criticizing Saudi Arabia for misusing these technologies to boost production at existing fields, and thereby risk even greater harm to the fields' long-term productive capacity. The author completely missed the significance of these techniques as a way to get oil out of "tight" formations that previously were unavailable for production.

Today, of course, fracking and horizontal drilling have triggered on ongoing boom in drilling and production that shows no sign of ending. People no longer talk about peak oil, and even such notable opponents of the oil industry as Barack Obama cite this boom as being able to alter world politics, and in a good way. (And, of course, Obama tries to take credit for it, though he has done nothing to help.)

So far as I know, Twilight in the Desert paints an accurate picture of problems in the Saudi oil fields, and production in Saudi Arabia may begin to decline because of those problems. By completely missing the boat on fracking and horizontal drilling, however, the author fatally marred his argument. The world is not running out of oil, at least not yet, and the policy prescriptions that might be appropriate for a world with inadequate oil supplies would be a disaster for the world we actually live in. Trends in the production and consumption of petroleum - and other resources for that matter - deserve careful attention. But the Chicken Littles should be sent home, rather than being allowed to roost where they can do harm. ...more

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Apr 16, 2012 Jim Turner rated it really liked it

As a petroleum geologist, I have long known that oilfields have finite lives. They perform very well in their youth, then limp along for years and years of middle and old age. I also knew how the number of very large fields was small, while modest ones were more common.

Matthew Simmons does an excellent job of explaining these facts, and even goes into the basics of petroleum engineering in an easy to understand manner. He then sets out like an investigative reporter going through years and years ...more

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Oct 29, 2008 Timothy Fitzgerald rated it it was ok · review of another edition

Shelves: non-fiction

This is an interesting read...but in my opinion it is far too long, and laden with technical information. The sense I get is that (and Simmons admits as much) the technical pieces are over the average person's head, but not informed enough to bring value to the technical audience. To me, that begs the question, who benefits from all of it?

In including so much of this technical information, I feel like Simmons often belabored his points, which made things seem extremely redundant (at one point h ...more

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Aug 30, 2019 Dennis Littrell rated it really liked it

Another dire warning that we must develop energy alternatives

In his book Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak (2005) Kenneth S. Deffeyes warned us that peak oil is upon us and that what is left in the ground is just about the same as what we have already used. He pointed to Thanksgiving Day, 2005 as the day oil hit its peak. Now another world renowned expert on oil, Matthew R. Simmons in this densely considered book, is advising us that the estimates of oil left in the ground by the largest ...more

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Nov 19, 2017 Roger King rated it liked it

Simmons’ meticulously researched but overwritten thesis is inevitable Saudi oil production decline would precipitate conflict between royal family extravagance and needs of the burgeoning population. He was wrong in the first part but right in the second. Oil production remains steady and Saudi Aramco would allegedly be worth $2 trillion as a public company in 2018. But rather an unexpected drop in oil price ($100 to $30 to current $50) busted the country’s budget and led to “regime change”: you ...more

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Jan 31, 2019 Christopher Doyle rated it liked it

Provides decent account of the history of oil production in Saudi Arabia. While Simmons makes clear how surprisingly little technical information we have about the prolific Saudi oilfields, his case for rapid imminent decline of Saudi production appears wholly speculative. As Saudi production hits new highs 15 years later, his thesis is certainly challenged. But was he simply just a little ahead of his time?

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Nov 05, 2019 Sudhir Chintamani rated it it was amazing

This is a kind of expose. It is about the secrecy surrounding Saudi Arabia's oil reserves. I found it quite fascinating because the author has given evidence. ...more

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Sep 26, 2015 Ryan rated it liked it

Shelves: environment

This book addresses arguably the greatest threat to our industrial civilization, namely whether the biggest source of crude oil in the world has surpassed peak production and if so how fast could the decline be. You would think that such an important issue would have been studied intensively and the subject of much debate but you would be dead wrong. Instead, the Saudis have kept the rest of us in the dark about the extent of their oil reserves and the production details of individual fields in This book addresses arguably the greatest threat to our industrial civilization, namely whether the biggest source of crude oil in the world has surpassed peak production and if so how fast could the decline be. You would think that such an important issue would have been studied intensively and the subject of much debate but you would be dead wrong. Instead, the Saudis have kept the rest of us in the dark about the extent of their oil reserves and the production details of individual fields in the country since the early 1980s, citing state secrecy.

The only way to glean information and guess at current updated information is from hundreds of technical reports published by professionals on individual oil wells and reservoirs since the 1960s. This herculean effort was undertaken by the author, who 'connected the dots' from disparate pieces of data to draw some conclusion on the state of Saudi oil today. What he discovers is that there are a myriad of technical problems and challenges facing these oil fields that cast doubt on their ability to continually produce at current levels for much longer. This has been vehemently denied by the Saudis themselves, however, who continue to claim that all is well and the world can be assured of a ready supply of crude for at least another 50 years. But without divulging the details on the breakdown of oil production forecast for individual wells we can only take their word for it based on faith.

What is clear is that the biggest oil fields in the world, discovered in the 1940s, have since been producing at high levels for decades and it is inevitable that they will begin to taper down as all reservoirs eventually must, as sure as night follows day. What new technologies that have been developed in the last half century have mostly allowed a more efficient and rapid draw down of the resource, hastening the emptying of the wells and not extending their productive lives.

Ten years have passed since this book came out, we are still totally in the dark about Saudi production and reserves despite calls by the author for more information disclosure. And yet production has been held steady despite weakening global demand, causing crude oil prices to plummet. Exploration and capital expenditure has been cut dramatically as a result. Put two and two together and you arrive at the inescapable conclusion that global oil production decline must now happen even sooner than before.

In any case, the book is also a great introduction to how Saudi Arabia came to dominate crude oil, the history of discovery of the super giant fields, the biggest which accounts for a whopping 10 percent of world supply even today. While by necessity quite technical in many parts as the author details the complexities of maintaining consistently high oil flow from wells, this satisfies the curiosity of those like myself who trust only in factual information and not proclamations by others. However, there can be no definite and undisputed conclusions without the needed transparency of information. Those expecting to find detailed and up to date precise figures will be disappointed to learn that only general issues are hinted at without confirmation. ...more

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Aug 30, 2007 Phil rated it it was amazing

Shelves: non-fiction

This is a great book--it's a history of the oil industry, a primer on oil production technology, and a history of Saudi Arabia and its oil company Saudi-Aramco. Matt Simmons is one of the primary oil geologists who has been warning the world about "peak oil" for years. This is his magnum opus in which he presents his analysis of little-known Saudi records and reports on their oil supply and production going back decades. His main premise is that Saudi Arabia is about to or has already reached it This is a great book--it's a history of the oil industry, a primer on oil production technology, and a history of Saudi Arabia and its oil company Saudi-Aramco. Matt Simmons is one of the primary oil geologists who has been warning the world about "peak oil" for years. This is his magnum opus in which he presents his analysis of little-known Saudi records and reports on their oil supply and production going back decades. His main premise is that Saudi Arabia is about to or has already reached its peak in oil production and will soon begin a decline in total output. This matters because the Saudis have always been the world's largest producer of oil generating about 20% of global oil supply. Not only that, but their oil has always been of the cheapest and best quality while also being easily recoverable. The fact that more attention is not paid to the instability of this crucial resource is rather surprising.

Saudi Arabia's largest and most important oil fields were all discovered in the 1960's or earlier with no major discoveries since (similar to the rest of the world). These mega-fields compose the vast majority of Saudi production with the largest, sixty-year-old Ghawar, responsible for about 60% of total Saudi output and about 6% of total *global* output. Simmons is basically making the case that when Ghawar peaks, Saudi Arabia peaks, and when Saudi Arabia peaks, it means we have reached "peak oil."

Saudi Arabia has generally been a close ally of the U.S., often adjusting their oil production up or down depending on global demand and the needs of its allies. During times of extreme need they have been able to increase the flow and cause a global reduction in prices to our benefit, but often at the same time permanently damaging their oil wells, reducing total recoverable oil.

Simmons goes into great detail about the science and technology behind the production of oil which is a much more complicated process than I had thought. He reviews the history of Saudi-Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia, and uses it to show the evolution of oil industry technology. At this point in Saudi production, they are using incredible new techniques to extract ever more elusive oil from the aging giant fields. Advanced computer modeling, horizontal drilling and water injection are becoming the norm rather than the exception. While the oil used to gush right out of the ground, Saudi-Aramco is now forced to use increasingly convoluted means to keep the oil flowing. Unfortunately extreme measures to increase or maintain the rate of oil flow can also cause unrepairable damage to precious oil fields.

As Saudi oil production inevitably begins to decline, there will be no amazing new source that will magically appear to take its place and Russia will take over as the world's number one producer of oil. While this book can be dry and technical at times, and obviously quite bleak in its outlook, it is a vital and well-written account of a topic that has a huge impact on all of us. ...more

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Jul 13, 2011 Hava rated it it was amazing

Recommends it for: anyone who doesn't think peak oil is real

Recommended to Hava by: documentarys on peak oil

Shelves: nonfiction-books, depressing-books, middle-eastern-book

I cannot stress how important I think this book is. I am a recent "convert" to the Peak Oil world - somehow, I've managed to bury my head in the sand (ha ha) in regards to this topic until recently. About a month or so ago, I first heard the phrase "Peak oil" and started investigating it. I haven't stopped yet - I am almost overwhelmed by the sheer size and scope of the evidence that backs up the idea of peak oil. Unlike many problems facing society today, it is easy to help people understand th I cannot stress how important I think this book is. I am a recent "convert" to the Peak Oil world - somehow, I've managed to bury my head in the sand (ha ha) in regards to this topic until recently. About a month or so ago, I first heard the phrase "Peak oil" and started investigating it. I haven't stopped yet - I am almost overwhelmed by the sheer size and scope of the evidence that backs up the idea of peak oil. Unlike many problems facing society today, it is easy to help people understand that peak oil really will happen. After all, most people understand that A) Oil is a non-renewable resource, and B) We are using more of it every year. At some point, this is going to get ugly.

Of course, the debate comes down to when - is it going to happen soon or hundreds of years from now? This book helps to partly answer that question. At least when it comes to Saudi Arabia, we've already peaked or we are very, very close to peaking. And as one of the documentarys that I watched said, "If Saudi Arabia has peaked, the world has peaked." THAT is a scary idea.

Yes, there is a lot of technical information in here. And yes, the author does repeat himself somewhat - partway through the book, I thought about making up a drinking game where every time the author said, "aging oilfields" or "mature oilfields" I could swig one back. I'd be slobbering drunk by the fourth chapter.

So yes, there is that. However, there's a whole lot in here that is so interesting, you can't help but gobble it down. I learned a whole lot about oilfields in this book - I will no longer take estimates of oil reserves at face value, nor will I think that "Original Oil in Place" (OOIP) is an accurate gauge of how much oil is actually going to come out of the ground. If you'd asked me before I started this book whether an oil company could pull all of the available oil out of an oil well, I probably would have said, "Yeah, sure, why not." Now I know that the percentage of oil pulled out of an oil well is, on average, staggeringly low (20% range).

If you finish this book and you haven't learned anything, you're already an oil engineer. There's really no other explanation for it. I skipped just a tiny bit of the really, really in-depth information, and I feel like I learned all that I needed to. So if you find that you are overwhelmed, skip a paragraph or two and see if it starts making sense again. Because he does repeat himself somewhat, a lot of the more complex ideas start to make sense by the end of the book.

See? All of that repetition is a blessing in disguise. :-)

Like I said, one of the most important books written today. I only wish there was an updated 2011 edition!! Mr. Simmons, any plans for such a book to be released? ...more

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Nov 27, 2007 Mike S rated it it was amazing

Recommends it for: anyone interested in Saudi history, Peak Oil, or how water/gas injection increases oil well output

Shelves: non-fiction

This is a very well written book that will quicklly get you up to speed on recent Saudi history, including how the House of Saud and Aramco came into being, and how oil wells are found and managed.

It contains a great deal of data to support the argument that all of the big Saudi wells peaked about 25 years ago and are now in various states of decline, some quite serious, and details how quickly well production can decrease after a well has peaked, as well as how many wells have water and gas pr ...more

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May 19, 2009 Peter rated it liked it · review of another edition

Recommends it for: anyone interested in living through the next five years

Recommended to Peter by: Matthew Simmons, interview on TVO

Shelves: current-affairs

Matt Simmons is/was an investment banker in the energy industry. He started asking questions about the Saudi Arabia Aramco oil company. When he could get no official information, he turned to the reports published by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.

The book is quite detailed in its analysis of the evidence, albeit indirect evidence of the coming decline of Saudi oil production.

He relates the history of oil production in the US and elsewhere, the place Saudi Arabia has taken in stabilizing th ...more

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Jan 19, 2010 Eric rated it liked it · review of another edition

It is abundantly clear from Simmons's book that he has written from years and years of study and experience in the oil industry. The book makes big strides in trying to corroborate that global oil reserves and production, Saudi Arabia in particular, are near an inflection point.

Simmons is nearly obsessed with this idea of peak oil and its consequences. This obsession and search for the truth of the matter lends some credibility to his work however, I get concerned that his passion and commitmen ...more

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Jun 29, 2015 Ricardo Suave rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

This book answers everything about oil that you need to know. The Author (Energy adviser to U.S. President George W. Bush, member of the National Petroleum Council and the Council on Foreign Relations, Founder of Simmons & Company International, Founder of the Ocean Energy Institute in Maine) does a great job of presenting information from a subject matter expert’s point of view and makes the discussion on oil easy for the average person to understand. I liked the fact that the book is an unbias ...more

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Oct 08, 2008 Kristina rated it really liked it

So far, very interesting. I am currently reading about the formation of Saudi Arabia and never knew that FDR met with King Abdul Aziz who was also in a wheelchair. The photo included is a powerful statement on the strengths of people with movement disabilities. The discussions on the levels of oil in the world has been interesting and with the fluctuations of the price of oil these days, it is crazy to think that a barrel of oil was 10 cents during the great depression...

Ok finished. The middle ...more

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Nov 14, 2007 Chuck McCabe rated it it was amazing

Full disclosure: I spent over a year working with the author to turn his manuscript into a publishable book, so naturally I think it's pretty good. The book is based on a review of some 250 technical papers on Saudi Arabia's oil fields contained in the e-library of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. The papers detail the kinds of challenges the Saudis are having to deal with as they attempt to maintain or increase their oil production. The book takes a skeptical position on Saudi claims to be a ...more

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Jun 25, 2009 Billy rated it really liked it

This book is a wakeup call. The thesis is that the era of cheap oil in which we have grown up is about to end. The chief culprits are the Saudis who are lying about their capacity to maintain their production of oil and exaggerating their proven reserves. The result will be a profound shock to the world economy unless we take immediate steps to reduce demand for oil. Most of the book is a field by field analysis of oil production in Saudi Arabia. A glossary and acronym list would have been helpf ...more

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Jan 09, 2009 JJ rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Maybe the central work dealing with the idea of peak oil being reached in the global liquid fuels market.

Saudi Arabia being one of the few nations which keeps its books closed on it's oil reserves, Matt found that he could survey the hundreds of engineering reports of consultants who had worked for Saudi Aramco to get clues as to the true nature of Saudi Oil Reserves.

His conclusion is that the aging super giant oil reserves in Saudi Arabia are on the wane, and becoming more difficult and expensi ...more

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Jul 28, 2011 Michael Weaver rated it really liked it

This book gives a good insider perspective about what the oilfields and related processing plants are like in Saudi. As one who has worked with ARAMCO in some commodities trades, this is an accurate insight for the most part. Overall a pretty good book but Simmons seems to overlook the upcoming technologies and their impact in extracting the abandoned oil from the ground and rock. Purely from the aspect of what is conventional, this book works, but from the aspect of what is out of the box, this ...more

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Oct 06, 2011 Paul Baxter rated it really liked it · review of another edition

A very well researched argument that manages to stay impartial in presentation. A lot of research has gone into this book, including hundreds of papers approved by ARAMCO representatives. Simmons has managed to communicate the facts at both a dumbed down level, and in a more descriptive manner for those who are familiar with oil reservoir work, ensuring that this is readable at any level. A definite recommendation for anyone concerned about the current state of the economy and the heightened foc ...more

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Feb 05, 2008 Shelby rated it really liked it

Reading this book in public made me feel slightly like a conspiracy theorist, but it truly is the easiest way to understand what is going on in Saudi Arabia as well as right here in our little town of Farmington. I have no knowledge of how the oil industry works, but after reading this book, I feel like I can now make educated and informed decisions regarding where I buy my gasoline, and where it comes from.

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Feb 25, 2008 Jason rated it it was amazing

Whoa. Talk about shedding some light on a murky energy situation. This is a must read to understand the global oil supply/demand. This will shift your thinking about what is really out there and what the long term energy solution for the US/World is. The book can be very technical at times. Some knowledge of oil and gas terminology is recommended. Good article on Simmons and his theories in February 2008 Texas Monthly.

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Jul 22, 2010 John rated it it was ok

the peak oil theorist's bible. simmons presents hard-to-refute historical, statistical and geological evidence arguing that oil production cannot expand indefinitely to meet the demands of a growing world, and that the largest producer of oil (Saudi) has dramatically overstated their reserves, and that their production may already be in decline. the theory is compelling but he lays it out in the first 50 pages, the rest is a relatively dry supporting evidence. ...more

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Feb 05, 2015 Tamer Alshazly rated it really liked it

Very interesting book, 4 stars and not 5 because i needed more than speculations. The books is full of astonishing facts regarding saudi oil - and the world reserve by relation- but for some unfathomable reasons the saudis are keeping silence or worse they exaggerate the figures, just to secure the easy digested myth about almost infinte oil!?
Frankly i can never understand the reasons behind this secrecy.

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Aug 21, 2016 Vignesh Rao rated it really liked it

A great non-technical book combining the technical & economical aspects, giving important insights into the Saudi Oil Kingdom, which has been an clandestine affair. The book highlights a very comprehensive research done by Matthew R.Simmons, bringing out the Facts & Figure pertaining to saudi gaint & supergaint Oil fields whilst uncovering the underlying problems that have for long put the kingdom's dominant position & future in the global oil market at stake. ...more

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Jul 25, 2007 Kevin rated it liked it

Not the most entertaining read, but filled with technical knowledge about the complex process of finding and drilling oil, as well as some informative background on the politics of OPEC and Saudi Arabia. In particular, I liked the perspective it offered on the motivations behind Saudi Arabia's decision making. ...more

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Aug 16, 2007 Mike rated it liked it · review of another edition

Recommends it for: People interested in Saudi Arabian oil production

This is an incredibly informative book. Maybe too informative. At 450 pages, it's a bit of a slog to get through such dense material, but, when you're done, you can't say you didn't learn something. Simmons paints a pretty bleak picture, but does a pretty good job of supporting his assertions. It would probably be more enjoyable to read a condensed version of this book. ...more

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Jan 08, 2008 Todd is currently reading it

Just getting into it. I"m not sure i really need to read it since I've heard the basic conclusion already in an interview. Essentially, the point of the book is that we have reached the peak in oil output and are only going to go downhill from here. This is why I plan to invest a chunk in oil. In the long-run, the price can only go up. It's about as sure of a thing as you'll find these days. ...more

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Mar 08, 2007 Ryan Abrams rated it liked it

Good read on peak oil theory/technical problems in Saudi oilfiends. Also good overview of the history of the petroleum industry in Saudi Arabia. Pretty damn technical for a layperson, but I feel I learned something.

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Feb 01, 2008 Tommy rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

Shelves: ecointelligence

Simmons is the real deal. Having worked as a consultant with Aramco (Saudi Arabia's national oil co.) he had access to tons of documents that showed that some of the megafields of oil are truly in danger of peaking in production very soon, if not already. Excellent book. ...more

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