2020 Vision

by Jerry Pournelle (Editor), Ben Bova (Contributor), Harlan Ellison (Contributor)

Eight Prophetic Tales

Build Me a Mountain by Ben Bova: A man and a woman live in a world of unearthly desires.

Cloak of Anarchy by Larry Niven: An adult playground where law is enforced by remote control.

Silent in Gehenna by Harlan Ellison: Amidst a nightmare of creatures in an age of lost will one man fights back.

The Pugilist by Poul Anderson: One man's body conceals the ultimate weapon.

Eat, Drink and be Merry by Dian Girard: Future food, robot chefs, and a woman whose appetite transcends time.

Prognosis: Terminal by David McDaniel: Life synapses in a gigantic world brain to which everyone is infinitely connected.

Future Perfect by A.E. Van Vogt: Sexual capture and sexual alignment promise one mate forever.

A Thing of Beauty by Norman Spinrad: Life after the insurrection for a man rich enough to own the past.

Genres: Science Fiction, Anthologies, Short Stories, Contemporary, Fiction

192 pages, Mass Market Paperback

First published February 1, 1974

About the author

Dr Jerry Eugene Pournelle was an American science fiction writer, engineer, essayist, and journalist, who contributed for many years to the computer magazine Byte, and from 1998 until his death maintained his own website and blog.

From the beginning, Pournelle's work centered around strong military themes. Several books describe the fictional mercenary infantry force known as Falkenberg's Legion. There are strong parallels between these stories and the Childe Cycle mercenary stories by Gordon R. Dickson, as well as Heinlein's Starship Troopers, although Pournelle's work takes far fewer technological leaps than either of these.

Pournelle spent years working in the aerospace industry, including at Boeing, on projects including studying heat tolerance for astronauts and their spacesuits. This side of his career also found him working on projections related to military tactics and probabilities. One report in which he had a hand became a basis for the Strategic Defense Initiative, the missile defense system proposed by President Ronald Reagan. A study he edited in 1964 involved projecting Air Force missile technology needs for 1975.

Dr. Pournelle would always tell would-be writers seeking advice that the key to becoming an author was to write — a lot.

“And finish what you write,” he added in a 2003 interview. “Don’t join a writers’ club and sit around having coffee reading pieces of your manuscript to people. Write it. Finish it.”

Pournelle served as President of the Science Fiction and Fantasy Writers of America in 1973.

Reviews

[Craig · Rating 3 out of 5]

Fifty years ago Jerry Pournelle began to edit an anthology of prophetic tales by science fiction writers presenting their predictions of what life would be like in the year 2020. I thought it would be interesting to re-read it this year to see how well they did. In his introduction, written in 1971, Pournelle invited readers to bring their copies of the book to the World SF Convention in 2020 and promised that the surviving writers would buy those readers a drink and discuss where the predictions went wrong. Three of the writers who have stories in the book are still with us (Ben Bova, Larry Niven, and Norman Spinrad), but one of the first things that went wrong is that the Worldcon this year has gone virtual due to Covid-19, so there won't be any drinks. No one saw that coming. (Pournelle had idly wondered if the convention might not be held on Mars.) The first story is probably the best at fulfilling the prophetic premise of the book, a good one by Ben Bova featuring one of his most enduring characters, Chet Kinsman, who's lobbying for funding of a permanent moon base. Larry Niven's Cloak of Anarchy is a good political story of drone police surveillance and the philosophy of political anarchy, but he posits the end of motorized transport and the highways have turned into parks. Say what? Harlan Ellison's story is about rebellion against an increasingly Big Brother-like police state, which does seem to echo the current headlines in spirit. The worst story in the book is an unpleasant and boring and distasteful silly one by Poul Anderson about a man and his genital gun. Dian Girard, the only female author in the book, offers a short and humorous tale about a woman trying to go off her diet; it mirrors the sexism of the era in which it was written. Dave McDaniel has a piece that I'm not sure I'd define as a true story, but it does give a nice picture of societal change. I love Pournelle's introduction to the A.E. van Vogt story; he says it's a typical van Vogt story because you read quite a bit of it and then fear you might not know what he's talking about, then read more and know you don't know what he's talking about. (And I thought it was just me!) Anyway, it's an interesting story, but the setting would have been more convincing if it had said five hundred years in the future rather than fifty. It's been criticized as being a sexist story, but I don't see it that way; it's an interesting story politics and bureaucracy and resistance. The final story, Norman Spinrad's A Thing of Beauty, is my favorite in the book. It's a very amusing look at the decline of the U.S. to third-rate status and is in many ways the most accurate of the eight stories in the book from the prophetic standpoint. (The story misspells Roger Maris's name; I checked in Spinrad's collections No Direction Home and The Star-Spangled Future and found it spelled correctly in both of those volumes. New York Yankee history is important to the story.) In conclusion, I felt the book was pretty much a flop for futurological purposes of prophecy, but a pretty good read for sheer entertainment. Engaging introductions by Pournelle, one terrific story, six that were pretty good, and only one that was really offensive. Edward Bryant edited a book in 1976 with visions of the American Tri-centennial; I hope someone digs up a copy of it in 2076 to see how well that one did!

[Nicholas Whyte · Rating 3 out of 5]

https://nwhyte.livejournal.com/3352497.html

I came across this when researching science fiction visions of the year 2020. It is a 1974 anthology of eight stories, six very big names on the harder side of SF - Ben Bova, Larry Niven, Harlan Ellison, Poul Anderson, A.E. van Vogt and Norman Spinrad; and two authors who I had not previously heard of, Dian Girard (though it turns out that as J.D. Crayne, she wrote Murder at the Worldcon) and Dave McDaniel, who mainly wrote Man from U.N.C.L.E novels and died suddenly in 1977 aged 38. In his introduction, Pournelle predicts, rather optimistically:

"We will, many of us writers and readers, be around in 2020, medical science being what it is—-assuming that anyone will be around in 2020. By then, probably, nobody will give a hang what we said here; but the authors of this book hereby serve notice that we will buy a drink at the 2020 World Science Fiction Convention (Marscon?) for each and every reader who brings with him a copy of 20/20 Vision and points out—briefly—just where we went wrong in our visions of the future."

This year's worldcon is in Wellington, New Zealand, which is almost but not quite as exotic as Mars. Of the authors, only Bova, Niven and Spinrad are still with us, and I don't think any of the three will make it to CoNZealand.

The stories are very much of their time, with several of the authors (Bova, Ellison, van Vogt) banging drums that they banged elsewhere. The Anderson story is particularly awful; the protagonist overthrows Soviet rule in North America with a weapon that has surgically replaced his penis. The best and shortest is Girard's "Eat, Drink and Be Merry", in which a married woman of 2020 finds herself forced to cook hearty meals for husband and family while her own calorific intake is constrained so that she can maintain her lovely figure. The dark force behind this appears to be the state itself, but we can easily read across to the whole of society forcing women to live up to artificial expectations.

[Kevin · Rating 2 out of 5]

"You muffed it, baby."

A series of predictions about what this year will be like. I noticed one thing right off the bat: only one woman author. I guess gender was something not in their prognostications.

Preface and Introduction 3.5/5 Stars
Pournelle does a good job of setting up the mindset and goal of the collection. I agree that judging Science Fiction by its predictive power is stupid but I can't help but enjoy when SF is right. His postulations are interesting in that we can see which of the branched proposals actually happened.

"Build Me a Mountain" by Ben Bova: 2/5 Stars
A boring party filled with boring people acting out a little drama with a predictable ending. I found this one tedious, especially since it's something that's been done better before and since. Bureaucracy with always be with us, and I think I'd prefer to be reminded of that by Shin Godzilla.

"Cloak of Anarchy" by Larry Niven: 3/5 Stars
A fairly fun little morality play that doesn't seem like it's a serious look at the future. I literally live between the branches of the "San Diego Freeway," and it's not going anywhere soon. I find it hard to believe that they thought that in 1970 either. The drones are a reality today, which definitely gives this one the early lead for predictive power.

"Silent in Gehenna" by Harlan Ellison: 2/5 Stars
I'm sure there are some idiots who think that colleges are headed this way, but I kind of have to laugh about that. This is rather what I expected of Ellison, having read Deathbird Stories about eight years ago, and I have to admit that his cynicism has always seemed somewhat juvenile to me. Ellison can paint a picture, but the meaning in the picture always seems to be more bumper sticker than philosophical treatise.

"The Pugilist" by Poul Anderson: 1.5/5 Stars
Cold War nightmares seem so quaint now. I nearly laughed out loud at the description of the picture of Lenin next to the president. The idea that it'd be a picture of Lenin seems so quaint given the ego-driven Russian system in place now. Honestly, the rest of it was stale Cold War propaganda. It's my least favorite so far mainly because it's almost as boring as "Build Me a Mountain" at nearly twice as long. I think the only thing this got right was a mention of computer-controlled government surveillance.

"Eat, Drink and be Merry" by Dian Girard: 3/5 Stars
This one definitely gets at the double standards for women's health that are still present and the present concern about healthcare in general. True, it has the robot house stuff, which is possible, but not affordable or government controlled. It's a nice brief story after the huge, boring one. Also of note, this is the author introduction that mentions appearance and credits their spouse with the idea: forward thinking indeed.

"Prognosis: Terminal" by David McDaniel: 2.5 Stars
It's fine, I guess. Much like "Build Me a Mountain," it is far too focused on presenting a future life, so it ends up really dull. The mourning of space progress is represented again, though McDaniel thought we'd be to Mars... He does speculate on advanced communication technology, though he gets the details comically wrong; that's not meant as a criticism, just an observation in hindsight. Still needing physical plug-ins while also having realistic holograms is some classic SF predictive silliness. One thing he did sort of get right is the lack of being able to do things at a mid-budget. He references plays going away, which they haven't, but as far as television and films go (when we get them back post-Corona), they're all either huge or no budget with little in-between. Science Fiction has always been better at accidentally getting something right that going for the big prediction.

"Future Perfect" by A.E. Van Vogt: 1.5 Star
This is just pretentious with a cheesy ending. At least the boring ones made sense. I don't think this one makes sense. The world predicted seems to be a hodge podge of dystopian masquerading as utopia, but I don't think there was ever a through line that made much sense as far as how the society worked. I think the only thing that was even close to predicted was a weird version of U.B.I.

"A Thing of Beauty" by Norman Spinrad: 1.5 Stars
Ultimately, this could have been one of the better stories, but the Japanese stereotyping was exceptionally bad. Like, if they'd left Mr. Ito as he was, but not had the narrator go only long rants about how Japanese he was, it would have been better. This one... predicts nothing? The ending might work better for someone from New York, and once again, there is a lame moral platitude. I hate allegory, but based on this, they found it way more impressive.

Ultimately, no plague or megalomaniac gameshow hosts, so no surprise, SF authors in the seventies had no idea what 2020 would be like. No surprise. I just wish the stories were more interesting. Easy winners: "Cloak of Anarchy" and "Eat, Drink and be Merry."

[Jerry · Rating 3 out of 5]

I don’t remember, specifically, why I added this book to my want list, other than the obvious humor value of science fiction writers in 1971 writing about 2020.

The ground rules on this book were simple. Each writer had to write a story which he truly believed could take place in the real world in the year 2020… this is a book of personal visions of the year 2020; some frightening, some edifying, and all, I think, entertaining.

Much of the entertainment comes, as is often the case with projects like this, from what wasn’t said. Jerry Pournelle, who really was smarter than that, wrote an essay about Malthusianism without ever once mentioning Malthus or the then 100-year history of failed Malthusian predictions.

All of the stories are at least interesting, and some are quite good. Most only slightly overestimate where technology, and society, would be in 2020. Larry Niven (Cloak of Anarchy) “predicted” riots in the parks, and lessons in the true consequences of anarchy. He also predicted a panopticon state (not bad) that heavily discourages freedom of movement (good) enforced by floating orbs (would that our panopticon were that beautiful!) and a culture so trustworthy that the orbs are not actually protected from hacking (sadly, probably also realistic).

Ben Bova’s hobby horse in Omni was the United States space program and the lack of support, especially funding, in congress. So his story about 2020 (Build Me a Mountain) sends sixties stereotypes of hippies, astronauts, and politicians into 2020 and imagines a space program so unbelievably stagnant that we barely have a lunar outpost, with no Martian outpost at all!

I would love to live in a world where the argument of the day was whether or not to continue funding our existing lunar base.

Harlan Ellison (Silent in Gehenna) envisioned a world where institutions of higher learning and news stations enforced a restrictive, heavily-proscribed culture of… I’m not sure what; he never describes what the confines of the culture are, just that they are heavily enforced and very confined. And then he drops a proverbial truck on his hero at the end to avoid an ending.

Poul Anderson (The Pugilist) envisioned a world of weaponized sexual organs in the military (it’s not as interesting as it sounds) and a very ineffective resistance against a world order that doesn’t appear to have much of a different aim than those in power, though he doesn’t hammer that point as a Mark Steyn might do.

Dian Girard (Eat, Drink, and Be Merry) wrote of a cashless environment in which people’s food intake was carefully monitored and healthy choices enforced at the point of sale.

Dave McDaniel (Prognosis: Terminal) wrote about the artistic culture of 2020, in which there is a three-way vise made of (a) a glut of potential creators, (b) a reliance on massive organizations for distribution, and (c) artificial intelligence, that makes it difficult for any individual creator to be seen and to break out into success.

Oh, and everyone communicates on small phones. But they have to go home or to private, rentable, cubicles to view the video that people send around easily.

A. E. Van Vogt (Future Perfect) posits a very strange inversion of a guaranteed Universal Basic Income in which everyone is loaned a lifetime of money when they turn eighteen… and apparently everyone except one somehow manages not to waste that money in a wild, youthful splurge. Oh, and our knowledge of biology allows us to enforce marriage vows at the gene level.

Finally, Norman Spinrad’s A Thing of Beauty subjects us to that wonderful seventies fear, Japanese economic domination. We follow a day in the life of a man whose sole business appears to be brokering the sale of United States landmarks—such as Yankee Stadium and the Statue of Liberty and one that would be a spoiler—to wealthy Japanese businessmen intent on preserving face.

The more I read old stories about the feared Japanese takeover of culture, the more I think it might not have been a bad outcome. Japan, especially could use that kind of optimism.

In all, the individual stories are interesting, but combined they are a real downer. By design, they give us all the pessimism of seventies science fiction without the inadvertent optimism of having thriving outposts throughout the solar system. Even the introduction ends on a retroactive downer:

This book, though, is a book of predictions. It was designed that way. It is not, of course, primarily a test of the power of science fiction writers to predict the future. It is, after all, intended to be entertainment. At the same time, 20/20 Vision gives us a unique opportunity.

We will, many of us writers and readers, be around in 2020, medical science being what it is—assuming that anyone will be around in 2020… the authors of this book hereby serve notice that we will buy a drink at the 2020 World Science Fiction Convention (Marscon?) for each and every reader who brings with him a copy of 20/20 Vision and points out—briefly—just where we went wrong in our visions of the future.

By 2020 only three of the nine authors represented here were still alive, and Ben Bova would die a few months after the 2020 WorldCon, very likely unable to attend any conventions. That left only Norman Spinrad and Larry Niven to fulfill this promise.

The 2020 World Science Fiction convention was held in late July/early August of 2020. Or it would have been, but for something none of them predicted (although Dian Girard and Dave McDaniel probably came closest): due to fears of a worldwide pandemic, the real convention—and much of the real world below the level of politicians and other members of the global elite who called for it—was shut down in favor of a virtual convention.

No drinks were bought. Just “food for thought”. Described, even more frighteningly, as “[VIRTUAL] food for thought”, as though even thought must be shut down in favor of the artificial variety. Larry Niven was “there”, although sadly I cannot find any video record of that session. His panel, “Big Smart Objects”, wouldn’t have been a good venue for discussing 20/20 Vision in any case.

Sometimes there’s no exchange counter at the history market.

[Anthony Toto · Rating 4 out of 5]

The writers did a great job, and all had a very different take on 2020, both from each other, and compared to life now. I honestly prefer life in any of these stories.

[Bryan Rumble · Rating 5 out of 5]

I picked up some treasures at a semi-local used bookstore, and one of them was 2020 Visions, a collection by Jerry Pournelle. Published in 1974, Dr. Pournelle asked some SF writers to contribute a story capturing what they thought might be a possible world of 2020...with the promise that any of them surviving to 2020 would buy anyone a drink if they showed up with a copy of the book and could point out an error in their story in-person at Worldcon in 2020 (which happened to be CoNZealand, which was virtual only due to Covid...who could see that coming from the 1970s?).

"We will, many of us writers and readers, be around in 2020, medical science being what it is—-assuming that any one will be around in 2020. By then, probably, nobody will give a hang what we said here; but the authors of this book hereby serve notice that we will buy a drink at the 2020 World Science Fiction Convention (Marscon?) for each and every reader who brings with him a copy of 20/20 Vision and points out—briefly—just where we went wrong in our visions of the future."

I found a free copy of the book at the author's website and that's one I'm reading now on my kindle, it has some additional material within that's pretty interesting.

Here's the current edition's ToC:

Preface: Jerry Pournelle
Do We Live in a Golden Age?—Pournelle
Build Me a Mountain—Ben Bova
Cloak of Anarchy—Larry Niven
Silent in Gehenna—Harlan Ellison
The Pugilist—Poul Anderson
Eat, Drink, and Be Merry—Diane Girad
Prognosis: Terminal—Dave McDaniel
Future Perfect—A. E. Van Vogt
A Thing of Beauty—Norman Spinrad
POSTLOG | CRITIQUE
World Future Society is Not in Mortal Combat with SF
Worldcon 2020 Bet: The Tontine
What 1970’s SF Authors Got Wrong for 2020

Of all these authors, only three would have been around to buy anyone a drink: Ben Bova (although he did pass later in 2020...November 29, 2020, at 88), Larry Niven, and Norman Spinrad. However, Dr. Pournelle's family were ready and willing to complete the bet on his behalf, as stated in the updated version on the Chaos Manor website:

"Sadly, Doctor Jerry Pournelle didn't quite make it to 2020 to buy drinks at WorldCon, but he did leave a credit card to help with the tab. He wanted you to know the optimistic future would be bountiful and that his vision for ChaosManor™ postulations would live on.

If anyone in New Zealand is attending WorldCon in 2020, would you please help facilitate the bet?

We'll do it Live on Facebook. Visit jerrypournelle.com/sciencefiction or drop us a line at doctorjerrypournelle@gmail.com

Perhaps Ben Bova, Norman Spinrad and Larry Niven could skype into the call, briefly, just this once.

I read this book through over only a few sittings, it's one of the more interesting pieces in my collection, and I encourage all SF readers to give it a look because I think it's of historial importance in the field.

[Tony · Rating 3 out of 5]

A fun science fiction concept that falls a little apart on execution. But I think the worst parts were the intros by editor Jerry Pournelle. His insistence that the authors were meant to literally predict life in 2020 is one thing (which undercut the metaphorical power of some of the stories), but his reiteration that perhaps the mid-70s is a “golden age” falls apart when nearly half the stories have Cold War and nuclear age anxieties all over them. What sort of golden age is fraught with that sort of worry?

Regardless, here’s a non-exhaustive list of what folks got right and wrong relative to predictions. Ranks next to my top 3.

“Build Me a Mountain”

Right: Moonbase talk; talks of cities overrun by violence

Wrong: Cities not actually overrun by violence

“Cloak of Anarchy”

Right: Tech surveillance leading to greater safety; drones

Wrong: freeways aren’t dead; no free parks and drones that zap you; regular use of surveillance drones

“Silent in Gehenna”

Right: political violence

Wrong: Open, violent insurrection

“The Pugilist”

Right: N/A

Wrong: Communism and/or Russia

“Eaton, Drink, and Be Merry” (1st)

Right: smart beauty and weight management

Wrong: automated, robot cooks; automation not that smart yet

“Prognosis: Terminal” (3rd)

Right: personal, handheld communication; augmented reality entertainment

Wrong: communal, public televisions and broadcasts

“Future Perfect”

Right: chemical sexual tampering

Wrong: arranged marriages; up front payments of all life’s wages

“A Thing of Beauty” (2nd)

Right: Japanese ascendance

Wrong: China is more ascendant; private- hover copters; war torn America

[Bridgette Smith · Rating 4 out of 5]

A.E. van Vogt did not disappoint in his dimensional and bizarre portrayal of the 2020 in “Future Perfect”: a world without poverty or crime but also a world without reproductive freedom, love or autonomy. Stephen Dalkins was a worthy protagonist, his motivation cryptic until the last twist.

The book was also an interesting time capsule in itself, complete with 1970s sexism which fueled feminist sci-fi icons James Tiptree Jr., Joanna Russ, Ursula K. LeGuin and the like.

Dian Girard’s “Eat, Drink and Be Merry” reads like a modern day body-positive Sci-Fi zine (a smart house which meters your caloric and nutritional intake based on built in shower-scale readings), I don’t actually think she was too far off.

Several stories featured smart phone technology. Several stories ventured into the ecological realm (public transportation is mastered, freeways are turned into communal gardens). Overall very enjoyable, a fun read as the year 2020 approaches.

[Nick · Rating 3 out of 5]

It's interesting to see this as a historical piece, in that the stories were written in the 1970s to predict a time so close to our present time. Of the predictive parts, the drones in Larry Niven's "Cloak of Anarchy" seems to have been pretty much on schedule. I would be willing to bet that you could mount a taser-like device on a drone now, which would work much like what is in the story. I also have to agree with the story's analysis of what could go wrong in a true anarchy, as opposed to a guarded free society. Power doesn't have to be evil in order to be abused.
Of the others, most were simply speculations about a future which might or might not happen, set in the then-future. Some were better than others, but the collection of stories is worth reading as a whole, and to read the short Pournelle essays and inter-story comments.

[Earl Truss · Rating 2 out of 5]

I guess I was misled by the cover and a description I read of this book. It's not really science fiction at all. Eight writers were asked in 1974 to write a story about what they thought the world might be like in the year 2020. It now being that year, I thought it would be interesting to see what they thought. Not surprisingly most of them were wrong. The one story that got it closest described a fight over spending money to build a moonbase. it's not about building the moonbase, just the problems getting the money to do it.

[J · Rating 2 out of 5]

I thought the premise of science fiction authors of 1971 predicting life in 2020 would be more fun, but many of these stories are stuck in the politics of their day. That being said, “Eat, Drink, and be Merry” was a short and funny depiction of extreme diet culture. “Future Perfect” was also an intriguing depiction of extreme state-controlled family planning.

I would not recommend for modern readers though.

[David Allen · Rating 3 out of 5]

The limits of SF's ability to forecast the future are certainly clear in this 1974 book of stories set in 2020. Almost nothing has come to pass. But who cares? This is still a fun collection of SF originals. I actively enjoyed about half, with van Vogt and Spinrad's stories my favorites, and Girard's, about a future in which women's ideal weight is enforced, was a welcome blast of feminism.

[Zac · Rating 2 out of 5]

Wasn't 2020 supposed to be the future? An interesting experiment in present-day overtaking science fiction predictions, but the majority of stories have aged poorly or reflect all too clearly past dogma and ruinous mores.

[Jane · Rating 3 out of 5]

It's in 2020. I thought I should finish this year with this book of fun and exciting productions from the '70s. Being an anthology, I found it well put together, and each story explained; however, there were stories that I found super bleak and boring. I was hoping for more, especially as I'm reading this in 2020.

[Mike Stanbro · Rating 4 out of 5]

Some of the short stories are more memorable and stick with you longer than others, but all in all a good sci-fi anthology

[Flash Sheridan · Rating 4 out of 5]

Other reviewers have covered the basics, so I’ll just add a couple notes:
• The introduction to “Cloak of Anarchy” refers to a “mere fifty years,” which suggests that the original publication goal was 1970.
• I’m glad I waited until late 2020 to write this, though since I bought the first edition soon after it came out, you may feel I procrastinated too long. At least one dismissive review here, written early in the year, of Spinrad’s story missed his eerie prescience about the aftermath of a violent insurrection in the US, including statue decapitation. I hope he’s wrong about the rest; he’s off by at least 600 Km about the dominant culture.

[Jeff Vayo · Rating 3 out of 5]

The stories were a bit hit and miss. I liked the last two.

[Sheri Fresonke Harper · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting older stories that offer a futuristic vision in life on Earth and other planets.