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The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations
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Why do we make mistakes? Are there certain errors common to failure, whether in a complex enterprise or daily life? In this truly indispensable book, Dietrich Dörner identifies what he calls the “logic of failure”—certain tendencies in our patterns of thought that, while appropriate to an older, simpler world, prove disastrous for the complex world we live in now. Working
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Paperback, 240 pages
Published
August 4th 1997
by Basic Books
(first published May 31st 1996)
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The main gist of this book is that human beings don't always behave logically. This is entirely valid, but not very interesting to me. And anyway there are many other books on that topic. The attraction of this book was the promise of something that could help to deal with "complex situations." Unfortunately, the book is about computer simulations--NOT about "avoiding error" in the real world. It makes sense to rely on sims when it's not possible to study something in the real world, for example
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Ultimately, the author of this book was just stringing a bunch of anecdotes together to try to prove that simulated gaming would be a good training method. I work with people who make a living at develooing and employing such games, and know how to actually use the scientific method, unlike this guy, who couldn't even bother to find ay scientific references for the poijnts he was trying to make.
In addition, his basic attitude was that people fail becuse they arent't as smart as he is ...more
In addition, his basic attitude was that people fail becuse they arent't as smart as he is ...more
This quote from the book sums it up well:
"[in relationship to good and bad planners] The good participants differed from the bad ones in that they tested their hypotheses. The bad participants failed to do this. For them, to propose a hypothesis was to understand reality; testing that hypothesis was unnecessary. Instead of generating hypotheses, they generated 'truths'."
Or in other words, dangling truths unconnected from reality.
The entire book is full of real world case studies an ...more
"[in relationship to good and bad planners] The good participants differed from the bad ones in that they tested their hypotheses. The bad participants failed to do this. For them, to propose a hypothesis was to understand reality; testing that hypothesis was unnecessary. Instead of generating hypotheses, they generated 'truths'."
Or in other words, dangling truths unconnected from reality.
The entire book is full of real world case studies an ...more
Dietrich Dörner is an authority on cognitive behavior and a psychology professor at the University of Bamberg, Germany. His research shows that our habits as problem solvers are typically counterproductive.
Probably our main shortcoming is that we like to oversimplify problems. Dörner offers a long list of self-defeating behaviors, but common to all of them is our reluctance to see any problem is part of a whole system of interacting factors. Any problem is much more complex than we l ...more
Probably our main shortcoming is that we like to oversimplify problems. Dörner offers a long list of self-defeating behaviors, but common to all of them is our reluctance to see any problem is part of a whole system of interacting factors. Any problem is much more complex than we l ...more
I did not like this book. I am no academic, but I was appalled by the fact that the findings of this book are founded on such a small population of observations made in game-like scenarios. And then, to move from the specific to the generic, with broad strokes of the brush. A presumptuous book full of truisms. The one thing to take away from this book is that real-life systems are complex and not easily understood by humans.
Concise, direct and up to the point. The Logic of Failure is an exploration of some of the prominent factors affecting our ability to plan and act. Factors that are at no lack to anyone, but seem to slip away through our common sense (which just means our present and available brain capacity or capabilities); factors such as temporal configurations, realizations of non-linear relationships, tendency to employ methodism, etc. There are many factors affecting our planning and actions, of considera
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Interesting breakdown of what makes complex problems complex, and how we can train our brains to better assess problems in a dynamic world (hint: change over time and the specific conditions a problem exists within are often overlooked). However, Dörner relies a bit too heavily on results of experiments where participants play computer simulations (think academia's version of The Sims) to make his points; the 25th graph is only marginally more informative than the 10th. The book drags, despite d
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Great book that got me to thinking aboput taking whole or systems thinking when it comes to complex problem solving. We all too often think about only our role in the problem solving prcess which can have detrimental effects in the long term. The Logic of Failure lays out the foundation behind failures and then does a masterful job of explaining the how too learn from and minimize failure with both an explicit and implict view. I recommend the book to any looking tpo becominga better problem sol
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This is the best book I've read on the patterns common to all failures. It cuts to a very fundamental limit of our cognition and reasoning. When we build systems that challenge our perception or cognitive capacities, we are just asking for trouble.
This is a book I always have on hand for reference.
This is a book I always have on hand for reference.
When Cass Sunstein call a book a classic (with similar praise from Tim Harford); it's definitely worth checking out.
Until reading this book, I had no idea this type of thinking/analysis was a thing but now that I've the book, I can't believe I lived an existence without employing this type of analysis.
The world is full of complex dynamic multi-variable interconnected problems that our brains systematically fail to comprehend. Through experience dealing with these systems ...more
Until reading this book, I had no idea this type of thinking/analysis was a thing but now that I've the book, I can't believe I lived an existence without employing this type of analysis.
The world is full of complex dynamic multi-variable interconnected problems that our brains systematically fail to comprehend. Through experience dealing with these systems ...more
Found out about this book while reading The 25 Sales Habits.
I re-read this recently and it held up quite well.It is probably the closest thing to self-help, psychology or a business advice book I would read. I'm not getting soft or developing ambitions of business consulting; it is academic, analytical, and focuses on failures and fiascos. The subject is how poorly and predictably our intuition and thought patterns serves us in complex situations.
In addition to real world situations (Chernobyl, for example) the author describes various labora ...more
In addition to real world situations (Chernobyl, for example) the author describes various labora ...more
"On s'engage partout, et puis l'on voit" - Napoleon, which roughly translates to "One jumps into the fray, then figures out what to do next."
We live nonlinear lives. When you fill up your gas tank, drive 50 miles and the fuel gauge barely budges, then you drive another 50 and it plunges. That's a classic nonlinear relationship. The math is hard, we hate doing that kind of math and we kid ourselves into believing that we can generalize such relationships. We can't. All we can do is re ...more
We live nonlinear lives. When you fill up your gas tank, drive 50 miles and the fuel gauge barely budges, then you drive another 50 and it plunges. That's a classic nonlinear relationship. The math is hard, we hate doing that kind of math and we kid ourselves into believing that we can generalize such relationships. We can't. All we can do is re ...more
Not what I expected. Rather than looking at real situations, this book looks at awesome videogame simulations of highly chaotic (in the mathematic sense) planning scenarios! Like playing discretized sim city, or playing 'balance the predators and prey'. The whole time they were describing how the good vs bad players played I was thinking 'come on, this basically seems like an IQ test'. Then they said that it didn't correlate at all with IQ, and talked about cool other rationality things. Like it
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Working with intriguing computer simulations of his own invention,Dorner exposes these flaws in our thinking. His examples-sometimes hilarious,sometimes horrifying-and brain-teasing thought experiments teach us how to solve complex problems.Awesome work for planning and decision making that bolster rational thinking skills of businessman or government officials or single mom..
The Logic of Failure is a popular translation of what appears to be some pretty hefty scholarly literature (I think-didn't bother to actually check 30 years of literature in German), that is hindered by becoming largely accepted wisdom. Dorner is a cognitive scientist who based this book on a series of studies of how people interacted with computer models: desertification in the Sahel, the economy and politics of a small town, predator and prey interactions. These studies, along with some examples draw
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When I started reading the book, I found it very interesting to see the fails in the human way of thinking in complex situations. Especially if you correlate this to computer programming and complex software systems. But after a while the book theme was constantly repeating the same pattern: a simulation where people made bad decisions and an analysis what these bad decisions where. At no point was there a mention on how to change this. Only in the end did the author try to handle this question
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Jun 14, 2019
Santhushka
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Outstanding book; check out my comments for some great quotes and some of my thoughts.
Read at the suggestion of a colleague, as we spiral toward project failure
I gave this book five stars partly because I think decisions in complex situations are not explored enough and far too few people are paying sufficient attention to this problem. Most aren't even aware that that they are not aware of the problem.
I also gave this book five stars because it makes the subject accessible beyond academia.
A couple of examples from the book:
"It seems likely that the capacity to tolerate uncertainty has something to do with how our participants behave ...more
I also gave this book five stars because it makes the subject accessible beyond academia.
A couple of examples from the book:
"It seems likely that the capacity to tolerate uncertainty has something to do with how our participants behave ...more
Dörner presents a good intro to decision-making in complex environments, however many of his recommendations could be shrugged off as common sense. Good problem solvers use clear goals (and intermediary goals) with accurate mental models which they refine over time. Poor problem solvers fail to account for conditions they want to leave unchanged, use less clear or precise language to express goals, and speak in absolutes. The only advice Dörner gives with which I disagree is his characterizatio
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Jul 02, 2007
Wendy
rated it
really liked it
Recommends it for:
anyone interested in why people in power screw up
Shelves:
sciencebooks
The author of this book is a social scientist who uses computer simulations as a way of studying human problem-solving behavior. Some of his insights into why people have problems dealing with complex situations:
- People have trouble understanding processes that work over time. People tend to respond to the situation, rather than to the process that produces the situation, leading them to overshoot or undershoot in their response.
- Both good problem solvers and bad problem solvers develop ...more
- People have trouble understanding processes that work over time. People tend to respond to the situation, rather than to the process that produces the situation, leading them to overshoot or undershoot in their response.
- Both good problem solvers and bad problem solvers develop ...more
Dietrich Dörner calls himself a "theoretical psychologist" and is a leading authority on decision-making theory or applied cognitive behavior. A psychology professor at the University of Bamberg in Germany, Dietrich recently visited Fort Leavenworth to speak to Faculty and Students of CGSS, SAMS, and an organizational I'll call the "Red Team". This book is about the challenges we face in trying to understand and solve problems involving complex systems. He addresses the typical shortcomings plan
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Herr Dorner gives us an important book that provides insights into human shortcomings in recognizing and dealing with complex situations. It’s not that we’re not smart, but our cognitive processes are in turn, petulant, impatient, and lazy. Happily, Dorner provides some assistance in meeting the challenge of complex situations; so, this volume has both theoretical and practical applications. This work has important implications for military strategists, statesmen, and public policy practitioners
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DÖrner often presents data from controlled experiments. He analyzes the psychology of complex systems and speculates on the motivation for the behavior of the participants. All that was well done and well written. In some cases groundbreaking. I truly believe that safety engineers do not take into account many of the things that Dorner covers in this book. Just a few of many examples would be: Intransparancy, wrongly assumed relationships between factors, the "third variable," our flawed model
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Fascinating - the psychology of how we, as humans, fail and try to cope with these failures. The only reason not to give it 4 stars was that it is translated (very well) from German, so most of his references are to German language books, articles etc.
He gives examples of problem solving situations and the responses of participants and then analyses why some did well and others fared poorly. Failures in complex situations (as are most of the problems in our larger world) are due to inabili ...more
He gives examples of problem solving situations and the responses of participants and then analyses why some did well and others fared poorly. Failures in complex situations (as are most of the problems in our larger world) are due to inabili ...more
Shallow most of the time.
A large chunk of the book is about how systems change in time and respond to feedback, and how bad humans are handling it. In other words, control theory is hard to do by hand even in controlled situations. However, there isn't much theory, just some argumentation that humans can't associate past events with the current situation so they can't react properly.
The final chapter has actionable advice to recognize situations that may lead to errors.
A large chunk of the book is about how systems change in time and respond to feedback, and how bad humans are handling it. In other words, control theory is hard to do by hand even in controlled situations. However, there isn't much theory, just some argumentation that humans can't associate past events with the current situation so they can't react properly.
The final chapter has actionable advice to recognize situations that may lead to errors.
This book was recommended to me by someone at work and I'm pretty glad he did. I don't usually read this genre, but the change of pace was refreshing. Especially when the book contains useful info that can be used in the real world. Some readers may think the writer adds to many examples towards the end of the book, but I believe he simply want to tie it all together.
Fantastic book, Expresses the logic of failure of decision. So many experimental facts but find very difficult in last chapter coz too many information and facts. I think the last chapter should have been distributed equally on previous chapters. So raw, made to read few time before closing the book. Thanks its a great voyage of decision making.
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“If we want to solve problems effectively...we must keep in mind not only many features but also the influences among them. Complexity is the label we will give to the existence of many interdependent variables in a given system. The more variables and the greater their interdependence, the greater the system's complexity. Great complexity places high demands on a planner's capacity to gather information, integrate findings, and design effective actions. The links between the variables oblige us to attend to a great many features simultaneously, and that, concomitantly, makes it impossible for us to undertake only one action in a complex system.
A system of variables is "interrelated" if an action that affects or meant to affect one part of the system will also affect other parts of it. Interrelatedness guarantees that an action aimed at one variable will have side effects and long-term repercussions. A large number of variables will make it easy to overlook them.
We might think of complexity could be regarded as an objective attribute of systems. We might even think we could assign a numerical value to it, making it, for instance, the product of the number of features times the number of interrelationships. If a system had ten variables and five links between them, then its "complexity quotient", measured in this way would be fifty. If there are no links, its complexity quotient would be zero. Such attempts to measure the complexity of a system have in fact been made.
Complexity is not an objective factor but a subjective one. Supersignals reduce complexity, collapsing a number of features into one. Consequently, complexity must be understood in terms of a specific individual and his or her supply of supersignals. We learn supersignals from experience, and our supply can differ greatly from another individual's. Therefore there can be no objective measure of complexity.”
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A system of variables is "interrelated" if an action that affects or meant to affect one part of the system will also affect other parts of it. Interrelatedness guarantees that an action aimed at one variable will have side effects and long-term repercussions. A large number of variables will make it easy to overlook them.
We might think of complexity could be regarded as an objective attribute of systems. We might even think we could assign a numerical value to it, making it, for instance, the product of the number of features times the number of interrelationships. If a system had ten variables and five links between them, then its "complexity quotient", measured in this way would be fifty. If there are no links, its complexity quotient would be zero. Such attempts to measure the complexity of a system have in fact been made.
Complexity is not an objective factor but a subjective one. Supersignals reduce complexity, collapsing a number of features into one. Consequently, complexity must be understood in terms of a specific individual and his or her supply of supersignals. We learn supersignals from experience, and our supply can differ greatly from another individual's. Therefore there can be no objective measure of complexity.”
“When we set out to change things, we don't pay enough attention to what we want to leave unchanged.”
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