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Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline

Darrell Bricker,

Jon Ibbitson

3.88 · Rating details · 958 ratings · 199 reviews

From the authors of the bestselling The Big Shift, a provocative argument that the global population will soon begin to decline, dramatically reshaping the social, political, and economic landscape.

For half a century, statisticians, pundits, and politicians have warned that a burgeoning planetary population will soon overwhelm the earth's resources. But a growing number of From the authors of the bestselling The Big Shift, a provocative argument that the global population will soon begin to decline, dramatically reshaping the social, political, and economic landscape.

For half a century, statisticians, pundits, and politicians have warned that a burgeoning planetary population will soon overwhelm the earth's resources. But a growing number of experts are sounding a different kind of alarm. Rather than growing exponentially, they argue, the global population is headed for a steep decline.

Throughout history, depopulation was the product of catastrophe: ice ages, plagues, the collapse of civilizations. This time, however, we're thinning ourselves deliberately, by choosing to have fewer babies than we need to replace ourselves. In much of the developed and developing world, that decline is already underway, as urbanization, women's empowerment, and waning religiosity lead to smaller and smaller families. In Empty Planet, Ibbitson and Bricker travel from South Florida to Sao Paulo, Seoul to Nairobi, Brussels to Delhi to Beijing, drawing on a wealth of research and firsthand reporting to illustrate the dramatic consequences of this population decline--and to show us why the rest of the developing world will soon join in.

They find that a smaller global population will bring with it a number of benefits: fewer workers will command higher wages; good jobs will prompt innovation; the environment will improve; the risk of famine will wane; and falling birthrates in the developing world will bring greater affluence and autonomy for women. But enormous disruption lies ahead, too. We can already see the effects in Europe and parts of Asia, as ageing populations and worker shortages weaken the economy and impose crippling demands on healthcare and social security. The United States is well-positioned to successfully navigate these coming demographic shifts--that is, unless growing isolationism and anti-immigrant backlash lead us to close ourselves off just as openness becomes more critical to our survival than ever before.

Rigorously researched and deeply compelling, Empty Planet offers a vision of a future that we can no longer prevent--but one that we can shape, if we choose. ...more

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Hardcover, 304 pages

Published February 5th 2019 by Signal Books

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Feb 19, 2019 Miranda Reads rated it it was amazing

Shelves: received-to-review

4.5 stars

Population decline isn't a good thing or a bad thing. But it is a big thing.

Throughout my childhood, I've heard time and time again about the rise and fall of human population.

Well, for the past few decades, we saw a rise like no other but soon (very soon) that will reverse.

And the consequences will affect everyone, everywhere.

The human herd has been culled in the past by famine or plague. This time, we are culling ourselves...

And what has changed so much that the hu ...more

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Aug 28, 2020 Henk rated it liked it

Shelves: owned, non-fiction

Interesting read, but at times repetitive and bit light on the analysis of reasons of current differences in fertility - 2.5 stars rounded up
The United Nations estimates that the nations of Eastern Europe collectively have lost 6 percent of their population since the 1990s, or eighteen million people. That’s the equivalent of The Netherlands simply disappearing from the earth.

In general I found Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline a smooth and convincing read. In terms of message ...more

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Feb 12, 2019 Charles Haywood rated it liked it

Anybody who has been paying attention has long grasped the truth: underpopulation, not overpopulation, is our problem. This will soon be true on a global scale, it is already true in most of the developed world. "Empty Planet" explains why this is undeniably so. Unfortunately, the explanation is shrouded in confusion and ideological distortion, so the authors are never able to provide a clear message. Instead, they offer rambling, contradictory bromides combined with dumb “solutions” until the r ...more

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Feb 06, 2019 Peter Tillman rated it it was amazing

Shelves: reread-list, high-prority, sci-tech, travel, history, at-bg-pa, trade-economics

WSJ Review: https://www.wsj.com/articles/empty-pl...
(Paywalled. As always, I'm happy to email a copy to non-subscribers)
"Pulling examples from extensive on-the-ground research in settings as disparate as São Paulo favelas, Seoul universities and Nairobi businesses, the authors combine a mastery of social-science research with enough journalistic flair to convince fair-minded readers of a simple fact: Fertility is falling faster than most experts can readily explain, driven by persistent forces. WSJ Review: https://www.wsj.com/articles/empty-pl...
(Paywalled. As always, I'm happy to email a copy to non-subscribers)
"Pulling examples from extensive on-the-ground research in settings as disparate as São Paulo favelas, Seoul universities and Nairobi businesses, the authors combine a mastery of social-science research with enough journalistic flair to convince fair-minded readers of a simple fact: Fertility is falling faster than most experts can readily explain, driven by persistent forces. In Brazil and China astonishing numbers of women opt for permanent sterilization well before the end of their fertile years (half of Chinese couples take this route). In South Korea and Japan women delay childbirth until their 30s or forgo it altogether. There even has been an unexpected collapse in fertility among Hispanics in the United States: They, like most of America’s other ethnic groups, now have below-replacement birth rates. The drivers of global fertility decline are here to stay."

Very interesting, and will have society-shaking effects if they are right. Their most profound insight: women are the key to this whole fertility business. Well, doh. As women become urbanized, better educated and better able to control their own fertility -- the old paternalist, "husband is BOSS, period" business gets tossed. Having kids in the city is *very* expensive. As opposed to on the farm, where you could put them to work. When the women figure this out, they have fewer kids. It's an irreversible decision, for each woman. And very fast. And the UN hasn't noticed yet -- see second comment.

Last 3 0r 4 chapters suffer a bit from repetition, but the book holds up, and I think they are right: the "population bomb" has been defused, likely forever, and more countries will face the problems of graying populations that Japan is facing now. The next big nation to face that will be China: after the disastrous one-child policy, fertility rates there haven't recovered. The book predicts 1.4 to 1.5 children per Chinese woman for the rest of this century, which would collapse China's population to as low as 625 million by the end of this century, with a peak population of maybe a billion? I'm not sure I have these numbers right--confusing paragraph (p.162-163), and book is overdue.

Highly recommended for those interested in population trends! 4.6 stars. Very good, thought-provoking book. ...more

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Jan 08, 2019 Angie Boyter rated it liked it · review of another edition

Shelves: netgalley

A 3+ for sure and maybe rounded up later if I find myself talking about the book to friends!
A different take on world population trends and their implications
It is almost a cliché today to speak about global overpopulation and its implications for humanity and our planet. The United Nations predicts that the world population will grow from seven billion to eleven billion in this century then level off sometime after 2100. In Empty Planet Canadian authors John Ibbitson and Darrell Bricker challen A 3+ for sure and maybe rounded up later if I find myself talking about the book to friends!
A different take on world population trends and their implications
It is almost a cliché today to speak about global overpopulation and its implications for humanity and our planet. The United Nations predicts that the world population will grow from seven billion to eleven billion in this century then level off sometime after 2100. In Empty Planet Canadian authors John Ibbitson and Darrell Bricker challenge predictions such as these but instead think population will peak around the middle of this century and then begin to decline. The future they envision is a much more favorable one, although certainly not without its challenges. The environment will be healthier, and fewer people will lack adequate nutrition, but old people will constitute a larger portion of society, requiring services but not themselves any longer contributing to economy.
The authors cite a wealth of sources and provide copious footnotes. In addition to using various academic and government studies, they visited all the inhabited continents and explored social and demographic trends worldwide, from Japan to Kenya to Quebec to Australia. They liven their statistics with interesting glimpses of cultural practices. I was intrigued, for example, by the Kenyan dowry tradition whereby the groom’s family pays the bride’s family for the right to claim the bride. This use of the term “dowry” to refer to a payment from groom’s to bride’s family (rather than vice versa) was so unusual that I actually did some research to make sure it was correct. I should have trusted the authors more!
An aspect I found somewhat less satisfying was the authors’ anecdotal accounts of their visits to cities on six continents (Brussels, Seoul, Nairobi, Sao Paolo, Mumbai, Beijing, Palm Springs, Canberra, and Vienna). In each location the authors describe a social gathering organized by someone like a local academic where they met generally well-educated, upwardly mobile people to talk about their lives. For example, in Sao Paolo the women graduate students surprised the authors with their descriptions of the pressures they felt. These accounts were interesting, but each represents one very nonrandom data point, and it is hardly valid to generalize or consider them typical of the society.
A great deal of the book is devoted to immigration as a solution to the declining birth rate in developed countries, arguing that immigration is needed to beef up the economy, provide fodder for the workforce and sources of innovation, and keep the ratio of working people to non-productive retirees and children under control. This left rather unsettled the question of what the immigrants’ homeland can do to protect its own interest, but the authors did not claim to have perfect answers to all aspects of the challenge of population shifts, growth, and decline.
Empty Planet presents a more optimistic picture of our planet’s future than most of what I see today, which tends to emphasize “the global overpopulation crisis”. It is full of interesting data and insights and a colorful picture of world culture. Even if you do not accept all of the authors’ conclusions or agree completely with their projections, it is definitely worth your time, as it will give you a much better basis for making up your own mind.
My thanks to Netgallet and the publisher for an advance review copy of this book. ...more

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Feb 16, 2019 Chris Edwards rated it liked it

Empty Planet is a worthwhile read, though it does have its blind spots. Its fundamental thesis that urbanization and education are accelerating fertility declines at a much faster rate than the media and powers that be are indicating, and that that will have profound consequences, is sound. Indeed, it’s refreshing to read a book that aims to go against the grain of opinion – as so many claim to do – that’s written by bona fide professionals who have worked in the field. The complex topics of dem Empty Planet is a worthwhile read, though it does have its blind spots. Its fundamental thesis that urbanization and education are accelerating fertility declines at a much faster rate than the media and powers that be are indicating, and that that will have profound consequences, is sound. Indeed, it’s refreshing to read a book that aims to go against the grain of opinion – as so many claim to do – that’s written by bona fide professionals who have worked in the field. The complex topics of demography, large scale social changes, and politics are laid out in a digestible and enjoyable fashion. The urbanization and sexual emancipation that the developing world is currently experiencing, which will produce a much less crowded world, has for too long been underestimated. It’s nice that this belief is finally being given due consideration.

As someone who is interested in demography as a hobby, I can’t speak much to the trends taking place in Africa and South America (though I do believe the authors’ points on them), but I was bothered by their analysis of the United States.

Namely, I don’t understand how anyone who has spent so much time studying demography could have the opinion that “Spanish will supplement English as the common tongue” in the US. There are widely available studies that disprove this assertion, which is erroneously held by far too many people, ironically. Five minutes on Pew Research will tell you that Spanish in the United States is on the same trajectory that German took in early 20th century America: dead by the third generation. And if every other group on earth is going to become less religious over time, why doesn’t that apply to American Latinos? It is nice however that they (briefly) allude to Richard Alba’s belief that our social categories will simply expand, and never reach a majority-minority tipping point.

But it’s in later chapters that this book’s issues really become apparent. Its attitude is deeply neoliberal, and some of its analysis ultimately comes across as contradictory. Increasing immigration is a fundamental necessity for Bricker and Ibbitson, who have little time for its critics. Yet the book’s fundamental thesis is that in the not so distant future, developing nations aren’t going to have surplus populations to send to us. The push and pull factors will lessen over time. So where will these people come from?

Increasing population is the foundation of economic growth, they say, which is of course the key to everything. Now, I understand the benefits of regarding humans as economic units, but it’s not the be all and end all. There will be some positives to a smaller population in Japan and elsewhere, alongside just a smaller ecological footprint. The glut in housing will make it more affordable again. Labor shortages will finally improve wages. The book spends zero time dwelling on these benefits to regular people. I can’t help but feel that Bricker and Ibbitson run in Toronto circles dominated by affluent business and property owning people, who are more than happy to see wages continue to stagnant, and property prices continue to rise.

In fact if you’re from Canada, perhaps you’ll know the sort of Toronto-bubble that I’m referring to. The hard capitalistic attitude hidden behind the insufferable virtue signalling. They champion multiculturalism purely because it facilitates greater immigration, which in turn creates economic growth. Economic growth is the only thing that’s important to them. They have no real love for regional or indigenous cultures of any kind in the long run. The book even bizarrely goes so far as to lament that mass immigration has doomed Indigenous populations around the world to cultural and demographic annihilation, whilst waxing romantic about Canada’s own mass immigration system that will continue that process. Oh well! It’s sad, but Canada must maintain its GDP growth! They even go so far as to admit that “the weaker the culture, the easier the task of promoting multiculturalism. The less the sense of self, the less the sense that another is the Other”. In what universe should a "weak culture" and "less sense of self" be sought after? Let alone be enriching?

So, Bricker and Ibbitson come across in these later chapters as the perfect example of naïve, sheltered cosmopolitans who speak of vast changes with an air of detachment. They will never see their own culture wiped out by globalization. They will never experience the indignity of a layoff that comes with being viewed solely as a unit of output in a global economic system. It leaves a bad tastes in one’s mouth when you appreciate their way of viewing the world. ...more

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Oct 26, 2019 Raghu rated it really liked it

As far as I can remember, the received wisdom on the future of the earth has always been that humanity is reproducing at unsustainable rates, consuming more and more resources in the process. Thomas Malthus suggested it first in 1798. It was reiterated more forcefully in the 1960s by William Paddock, Paul Paddock, and Paul Ehrlich. Now, in the 21st century, we have almost daily reminders of the earth's bleak future by climate change activists. If overpopulation doesn't get you, climate change wi As far as I can remember, the received wisdom on the future of the earth has always been that humanity is reproducing at unsustainable rates, consuming more and more resources in the process. Thomas Malthus suggested it first in 1798. It was reiterated more forcefully in the 1960s by William Paddock, Paul Paddock, and Paul Ehrlich. Now, in the 21st century, we have almost daily reminders of the earth's bleak future by climate change activists. If overpopulation doesn't get you, climate change will get you anyway. Amidst all this gloom and doom, this book gives you some back-handed relief, if not on climate change, at least on overpopulation. It says dramatically, "The great defining event of the 21st century – one of the great defining events in human history – will occur in three decades, give or take when the global population begins to decline". However, before we could rejoice in the good news, they douse it with, "Once that decline begins, it will never end." This book is a contrarian one, arguing against the prevalent impression on population growth and its fallouts. Let us look at the arguments of the authors in greater detail and evaluate them critically in the following sections.

I would summarize the book's thesis as follows:
Societies go through fertility in five stages. If we take Sweden as an example, in the 18th century, it was in Stage 1, when birth rates and death rates were both high. In the 19th century, it transitioned to Stage 2, where birth rates remained high, but death rates began to slowly decrease, mainly due to significant advances in the war against disease. In the early 20th century, Sweden entered Stage 3, where both birth rates and death rates declined slowly from their highs. The main reason for the declining fertility was urbanization. As societies develop economically, they become more urban. Urbanization leads to universal education, irrespective of class, and gender. Education paves the way for women's liberation and contributes to waning religiosity. Greater feminine freedom means less pressure from family and church to make babies and more opportunities in the world outside. This freedom leads to reduced fertility and hence, smaller families. Gradually, the reduction of fertility leads the country to Stage 4, which is the Goldilocks Stage. At this stage, the death rates continue to decline, but the birth rate is at or near the level needed to sustain the population. Up to this point, most demographers agree.

The authors' point of departure occurs here. They contend that the process does not stop at Stage 4. The march of urbanization continues relentlessly across the world, leading to women's liberation in all societies. It results in greater secularization and fewer kids in all nations. Once there are fewer kids, people organize according to the new reality leading to even lower fertility. Eventually, societies reach a fertility rate of 1.5, which is the 'Low Fertility trap' called Stage 5. Once a country reaches this Stage, the fertility rate cannot rise back above it again. Unfortunately, many countries in the world are already there. Hence, the world will get much smaller and much sooner than most people think.

The UN projects the world population to rise from its present 7.6 billion to 11 billion by the year 2100. However, the authors and many other experts do not agree with this forecast. The authors say that the planet's population will peak at around nine billion sometime between 2040 and 2060 and then start declining after that. By the end of this century, we could be back to where we are right now, which would be 7.6 or 7.7 billion.

Many environmentalists might rejoice at the idea of fewer and fewer humans on the planet. But the book cautions against the downside of population decline by pointing out the prevalence of a large number of the elderly, lack of innovation, slower growth, fewer schools, less demand on the economy, extinction of small indigenous communities and their languages, etc. The book bats for higher immigration on the Canadian model for countries that have reached Stage five. It does not hold out much hope for China, though. The authors feel that China will get old before it gets rich, unlike Japan. Its population could plummet to as low as 600 million by the end of the century from its present 1.4 billion. The authors paint an optimistic picture of Africa and its growth this century.
In the Americas, they believe that the US and Canada would do well in the 21st century. The main reason for this is their acceptance of immigration as an essential part of their nationhood. It will help them combat the low fertility trap and keep their societies young, vibrant, and innovative. The US may see its population reach 550 million and Canada at 100 million by the end of the century.

I agree with the authors' prophesy about the world's population peaking by mid-century and then declining after that. However, this is not a new idea. Even twenty years ago, Fred Pearce had advanced the same thesis of population decline in his book 'Peoplequake.' The authors' other contention that a nation is condemned to perpetual population decline once it reaches the 'low fertility trap' is more interesting. It is substantiated by what has been happening already in some countries. Fertility had fallen below 1.5 births per woman by the early 1980s in Germany, Austria, and Italy. Their experience is that it has continued to fall to even lower levels and has remained below 1.5 births per woman for more than 20 years now, almost a demographic generation. Since then, countries in Southern Europe, East Asia, and most Central and Eastern European countries have joined them.
This book does not provide much data to support many of its futuristic projections on Africa, China, and India. For example, they base their predictions on China and India on what they heard from NGOs and bureaucrats sotto voce, in contrast to official statistics. Elsewhere, it is mostly anecdotal evidence through interviews in slums and other places. The main argument here is that the world is fast urbanizing, which will lead eventually to low fertility.

I am skeptical about scientists' long-term projections for humankind as a whole. I feel that they do not give enough credence to the strength of humanity's survival instincts and the ability to take corrective measures when faced with existential threats. Historically, population-based forecasts have been wrong by stunningly wide margins. The future does not arrive overnight. It comes gradually, over decades. These changes progressively and continually affect the way we live, the way we interact with one another, and the way we adjust to them. Societies respond in real-time to these changes and find ongoing correctives for their survival. In the 1960s, futurists predicted a famine-stricken future for a poverty-stricken India with a hundred million deaths due to starvation. But a newly independent India responded to the severe droughts in the 1960s with a lot of policy initiatives and determination. Famine-like conditions never occurred in independent India.

In the same way, it is possible that in the future 'Stage 5 world', with young people being at a premium, we may see a different dynamic between Capital and Labor. Labor, being a scarcer commodity, may get dominance over Capital and force the ruling classes to provide for substantial welfare towards supporting and raising their families. Such a shift could result in fertility rates going up again towards Stage 4. Consequently, women may achieve greater fulfillment by having both a career and a family with a couple of children. Even if women do not go for more than one child, society's attitudes towards immigration might undergo radical changes when confronted with Stage 5 existential angst. It could result in making hitherto insular Asian cultures like those in Japan, China, and Korea more foreigner-friendly. Today's Persian Gulf countries are a great example. As countries with great wealth, small populations, and severe labor shortages, the Gulf states rely heavily on imported labor to fuel the development process. They have twice as many foreign immigrants as native Arab citizens.

All this means is that it is too early to predict an empty planet heading for terminal decline with too many unsustainable older people or massive socio-economic and political problems. We hear today alarming portends of rising oceans, inundated coastal cities, a hot planet melting its icy poles, and so on from environmentalists. Only our grandchildren and great-grandchildren will know for sure whether all this fear-mongering bears a resemblance to reality. But, if history is any guide, even if none of this comes true, it wouldn't stop the next generation from believing in a new catastrophe that scientists and environmentalists would predict for their future! ...more

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Mar 22, 2019 Gina rated it it was ok

Shelves: first-reads, non-fiction, current-events

I received this book as a First Read. I considered doing a DNF but decided to finish reading it just to see what other nonsense the author had to share. He uses some serious semantic and mental gymnastics to declare that we have already eradicated famine and extreme poverty throughout the world. He also spins some yarns about natural resources not being depleted. The book as a whole reads as a giant propaganda piece by corporations to encourage people to continue to do what they're doing and mak ...more

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Jun 08, 2019 Andrea rated it it was amazing

Shelves: library, nonfiction, read-sorted, nonfiction-arts-sociology

Contrary to the very popular doomsayer warning, we should not worry about the overpopulation, but rather take heed of the alarming trend in declining fertility rate on the global scale. Soon enough the overwhelming boom will reach its peak and the numbers will slowly start counting backwards. For some nations, like China, the change will come like a crashing down avalanche. For some it will be a slow trickle. But nevermind the pace, the reality is that most countries will end up with the largest ...more

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Oct 26, 2018 Jen Juenke rated it it was amazing

Shelves: non-fiction

This book was an eye opener. I never thought about some of the ramifications that can/could/are happening with population stagnation and population decline.
The authors lay out their argument of depopulation of the Earth might be the best thing to happen. The more educated women are, less religion in the society, and other factors are driving the decrease of fertility rates.
I loved all of the facts, stats, and stories, especially the dinner parties around the world.
The future is not all doom an ...more

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Feb 17, 2020 Delaney rated it did not like it

I finished this book because I wanted to be sure that after chapters of saying the world's population is declining due to women getting more rights and urbanization he was surely going to recommend policy that focuses on access to childcare and women not being penalized in their careers for having children but by the end of the book he had not (other than to briefly say childcare programs like in Quebec are costly but have no real impact). What an oversight. If we want women to have more kids ma ...more

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May 04, 2019 Cara rated it did not like it

This was a one page article, at most, expanded into book form.

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May 25, 2019 Bryan Alexander rated it really liked it

Shelves: futurism, history, health, demographics

This is a powerful, very accessible, and at times very surprising book.

Why is Empty Planet a surprise? Because for a couple of generations many people dreaded human overpopulation as a planetary challenge of the highest order. As I wrote in 2017,

Back in the 1960s and 70s many people feared overpopulation, and for good reasons. Human population was rising. Serious research, most notably The Limits To Growth (1972; based on a powerful computer simulation), suggested crises to come, ranging from ov

...more

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Mar 14, 2019 Daniel rated it it was amazing

Forget about Malthus and his spiritual descendants. Depopulation is the real problem. Urbanisation, high living standard, contraception, abortion, emancipation and education of women and government intervention (one child policy, stop at 2 in Asia) all drive this trend. There is no escape. The authors travelled around the globe to interview women and asked how many children they would like: basically mostly 1 to 2.

Countries without immigration such as Japan, Korea, China, Russia and Eastern Eur ...more

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Dec 30, 2019 Mark Lawry rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

Nothing new here to anybody who read books on economics at any point after about 1900. We all know rich nations such as France and Canada well before WWI knew they had a problem. They have been trying to implement policies to push up fertility rates all this time. None of them have ever worked. This fact was known before modern cheap birth control methods.

After WWII there was a global conspiracy to improve lives everywhere by building international institutions such as the United Nations. This ...more

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Sep 06, 2019 Krishna rated it really liked it

This is one of the most hopeful books I have read in a while. For years, demographers and environmentalists have warned of the Malthusian trap; increasing human numbers coupled with limited natural resources will lead to widespread famine, economic dislocations, wars and ultimately the breakdown of society. After Malthus's initial prediction failed to materialize, subsequent generations have put forward similar stories with their own twists: Paul Ehrlich's Population Bomb, the Club of Rome's Lim This is one of the most hopeful books I have read in a while. For years, demographers and environmentalists have warned of the Malthusian trap; increasing human numbers coupled with limited natural resources will lead to widespread famine, economic dislocations, wars and ultimately the breakdown of society. After Malthus's initial prediction failed to materialize, subsequent generations have put forward similar stories with their own twists: Paul Ehrlich's Population Bomb, the Club of Rome's Limits to Growth, and Jared Diamond's Collapse. Bricker and Ibbitson say these fears are overblown and unlikely to materialize. The reason: plummeting fertility rates.

The United Nations has estimated, using moderately declining fertility rates, that the population of the world may increase to as much as 17 billion by the start of the 22nd century. If it does, the carrying capacity of the earth will be severely strained, if not exceeded. Farmlands, forests, non-renewable resources, even water, will be desperately in demand. As humans expand their footprint, the outlook for other species is likely to be dire, with another mass extinction very possible.

But Bricker and Ibbitson, surveying the latest data and demographic research, state that fertility rates have fallen much faster than anticipated. The major developed economies, and many middle-income and even some low-income countries are already under 2.1, the replacement rate. (China is at 1.6 now.) And large developing countries like India are reaching that level very quickly. The result is that, according to the new calculations, the population is likely to reach 9 billion by mid-century, and is likely to begin a decline thereafter, falling to present levels by 2100.

Bricker and Ibbitson argue that fertility rates are falling due to two factors. First, urbanization. As people move from the countryside to the city, they are separated from familial and religious pressures for large families, gain access to new ideas and better healthcare. But most importantly, children who were an asset in an agricultural setting become costs in the urban. There is less space, and food and clothing have to be bought, creating pressure for a smaller family.

The second factor is women's emancipation. Traditionally, women were under pressure from families, religious leaders and husbands to stay home and procreate. But as women get educated and enter the formal employment sector, they begin to delay marriage and pregnancy, space children further apart and limit the number of children they have over their lifetime. The costs of large families, including lost wages and opportunities, more housework and potential medical complications, fall disproportionately on women. The desired number of children for women all over the world--even in developing countries--is now one or two.

Bricker and Ibbitson conduct focus groups with women and couples from around the world --Brazilian college students, Indian slum dwellers, Korean academics, residents of a Swedish artists' commune, Kenyan executives. And with minor variations, the story stays the same. The aspiration to get educated, the difficulty of finding a spouse who will be supportive of jobs and careers, the professional penalties for pregnancy and childcare, the easy availability of birth control and sterilization. Everywhere the same desire comes up -- small families, with one or two children.

But falling populations is not an unmitigated blessing. There is a downside to it too: less economic activity since young families are heavy consumers of everything from appliances to entertainment, a shrinking tax base, less support for the elderly and children, even less creativity. Declining powers may become aggressive, burgeoning cities with creaky infrastructure may feed civil unrest and political turmoil. Schools may close as communities have fewer young people. Less spoken languages disappear and cultures die; the world becomes a more homogeneous and boring place. Countries like China, according to Bricker and Ibbitson are going to face a veritable collapse of the population due to the one-child policy. They estimate that China might even shrink to 560 million people -- a catastrophic fall of more than 50 percent of the current population -- by the end of the century.

Bricker and Ibbitson are also strong supporters of immigration -- but of the selective and controlled kind. Both Canadian, they argue for the benefits of the Canadian model of immigration based on the point system. Immigrants are carefully screened based on education, language skills and age to select the ones most likely to make a positive impact on the Canadian economy. Bricker and Ibbitson argue that such policies are likely to be more palatable to natives as well, since they too will benefit from economically productive immigrants.

But Bricker and Ibbitson have a warning too -- Canadian immigration policies work because of a strong commitment to multiculturalism. New immigrants are not required to assimilate and their traditions and religions are respected. The problem with nations like Korea, Hungary, Italy and Japan that face a shrinking population and economic contraction, is that their sense of national identity is too strong to tolerate many non-natives in their midst. And immigrants too, faced with the prospect of learning difficult new languages to assimilate or constantly questioned about their allegiance to their new country's values, are reluctant to move to these countries. Bricker and Ibbitson rue that these countries -- with almost irreversible fertility trends and low levels of immigration -- face almost certain decline.

In spite of these, Bricker and Ibbitson end the last chapter on the most hopeful note. Urbanization moves people into more energy-efficient high rises in cities, and frees up land for rewilding. Reduced pressure on fisheries, farmlands and forests allows regeneration and species recovery. With fewer young people, nations may even become more reluctant to go to war. ...more

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Mar 25, 2019 Christopher Moellering rated it it was amazing

It is cliché to call a book paradigm-shifting, but I don't know how else to describe this work by Canadian authors on the future of global population trends. In the same way that The Lexus and the Olive Tree opened my eyes to globalization twenty years ago, this one revealed the forces shaping our future as a species.

With a large number of citations (endnotes, alas) they tell the impact of urbanization upon global population trends. The debunk the rhetoric and fears of the zero-population growth ...more

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Mar 11, 2019 Cherry (_forevermint) rated it really liked it

Shelves: nonfiction, bookmail

This was such a fascinating book to read! I enjoyed how the book goes into depth of how population is declining in various places all over the world and the causes. Some of the stuff did get repetitive and some chapters were a little more dry than others but overall, it was a really interesting read. I also appreciate the authors' humor sprinkled throughout. ...more

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Feb 08, 2019 Pete rated it really liked it

Shelves: nonfiction, politics

Empty Planet : The Shock of Global Population Decline (2019) by Darrel Bricker and John Ibbitson is a fascinating book that makes the case the global population is likely to peak sooner than UN population predictions suggest and looks at why populations are declining and the what the impact of declining populations is likely to be. It's a fascinating book because the fact that fertility levels are below replacement in almost all developed countries and many other countries is largely ignored.

The Empty Planet : The Shock of Global Population Decline (2019) by Darrel Bricker and John Ibbitson is a fascinating book that makes the case the global population is likely to peak sooner than UN population predictions suggest and looks at why populations are declining and the what the impact of declining populations is likely to be. It's a fascinating book because the fact that fertility levels are below replacement in almost all developed countries and many other countries is largely ignored.

The book starts by looking at the incorrect claims of various environmentalists from Malthus to Ehrlich. They point out that share of the world that is starving has plummeted and the share in absolutely poverty has also plummeted.

The book then starts looking at Europe, where populations are already starting to shrink. Throughout the authors interview people around the world to talk about their ideas of family. In Europe it is most drastic, a number of couples from Belgium who have a combined fertility rate of less than one talk about kids.

Then Korea and Japan are investigated. Japan being really 'the country of the future' in that populations are declining there. The book looks at how women wanting a career find it very hard to have kids as well given traditional roles for men in not helping much with parenting or around the house.

There is a great discussion of the economics of babies, how they have gone from a boon in agricultural societies to an economic burden in modern, urban ones. The impact of teenage pregnancy is discussed along with having kids at an older age.

The critical role of Africa in global population predictions and what is going on there is then investigated. There the fact that UN population predictions rely on African populations exploding is discussed and the impact that mobile phones and greater education and urbanisation is having is described.

Empty Planet then looks at how fertility is likely to change the size of India and China is outlined. The authors show how China's already low fertility will very likely lead to a population reduction and how India's fertility has changed and is likely to change gets a good discussion. Again the impact of information, urbanisation and education is likely underestimated.

Empty Planet then looks at how immigration driven by countries wishing to enrich themselves, such as Canada and Australia is likely to lead to those countries avoiding some of the impact of declining populations. It's a very well made point.

Empty Planet is really a fascinating book that makes a very strong case as to why global populations will peak sooner than expected and are likely to decline sooner than expected. It would have been good to get the case from a UN statistician as to why they think that population will be higher than the authors, but other than that Empty Planet is a really excellent book that describes a fascinating new phenomenon. ...more

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May 27, 2019 Mitchell rated it really liked it

Shelves: nonfiction, liked-reviews, library, published-2019

A quick read and a relatively short book. I'm so used to thinking of the population expanding and the impact of the increasingly too many humans on the planet, that the idea of the decline is hard to grasp. There were a lot of references in this book, but the authors really didn't pummel you with the facts in your face. But the facts seem clear. The population of the planet almost certainly will decline and not very long from now. And in specific places in the world it is already doing that. And ...more

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Sep 10, 2019 Anita Lyons rated it liked it

Super interesting read. Would give 3.5 stars. They are a bit US/Canada centric — this part was mediocre — I found the most interesting chapters the ones where they talked about other parts of world because I learned a lot.

Good news: the global population will likely start declining by mid century! They predict a “geriatric peace” as old people abound. Environment will be happier too

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Aug 08, 2019 Ailith Twinning rated it did not like it

Shelves: 2019

A badly defended assertion, wrapped entirely in cliche and outright shibboleth.
As for the politics. . .ugh. America desperately needs an actual left. His take on immigration is outright offensive, imperialist, trash. Bloody Liberals.

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Sep 14, 2019 John rated it liked it

3.4
I really have mixed feelings on this book.

If I rated it in terms of how well-written and interesting it was, it's an easy 5. I was really impressed with the amount of data that was presented to support the thesis - that we have much more to fear from dwindling population in the future vs. the commonly-accepted theory that the earth will be overpopulated - as well as the easily understandable and often humorous way in which it is presented.

But it goes astray with a leftist view of open border ...more

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Dec 23, 2019 Andrew rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

Shelves: current-affairs

As long as I can remember, I have heard talk about the overpopulated world that we are moving towards and the dire consequences it has for our future.

But even as the number of people on our planet continues to rise (at least for the time being), an underpopulation time bomb appears to be our future. Already many countries in Europe and Asia see stagnant growth rates with ageing populations and a low number of births.

While this might seem on the face of it not such a bad thing, "Empty Planet" by ...more

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May 07, 2019 Chris Csergei rated it it was amazing

Shelves: nonfiction

Empty Planet is an insightful book that is willing to go beyond accepted wisdom! The authors look at global population decline, bringing together a lot of history, statistics and data that so many others seem to be ignoring. They reject the standard talking points about population growth to look at what is really happening increase in world population. While there are many questions or predictions about the future that can not be answered, the trend-lines that they examine can give someone a lot ...more

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Dec 30, 2020 Kai rated it really liked it

3.7. For pop science writing it's pretty good and well-researched on what is happening demographically and what is likely to happen in the future (having worked on a paper on the future of population, I can somewhat verify this part). The commentary on why things are happening or will happen can get a little iffy in terms of guesswork and borderline casual racism. It's kind of like "we visited these disgusting slums of India to find out why the poors aren't having kids" vibes, but in a PC Canadi ...more

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Jun 16, 2019 Matthew Aujla added it

Demographics! Demographics! Demographics!

The authors are preaching to the choir. The world is not only getting older, it’s about to start shrinking. It’s not just Japan, it’s a global phenomenon wherever there are urbanised & educated women. How do we sustain economic growth, consumer markets, housing markets in an depopulating world?

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Jun 27, 2019 Jocelyn (foxonbooks) added it

DNF for me - an interesting concept that I was looking forward to exploring, but a little too sensational and with a bit too much focus on drama over facts. Just my opinion, and I can definitely appreciate how dramatising a topic helps people connect with dry subject matter/stats. I'm an analyst so it didn't hit that mark for me. ...more

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Sep 06, 2019 George rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

Shelves: lacpl-ebook, non-fiction

SHOCKING, AND INCREDIBLY INTERESTING.

"The great defining event of the twenty-first century—one of the great defining events in human history—will occur in three decades, give or take, when the global population starts to decline. Once that decline begins, it will never end. We do not face the challenge of a population bomb but of a population bust—a relentless, generation-after-generation culling of the human herd. Nothing like this has ever happened before.” (p. 2).

Everything about the idea of SHOCKING, AND INCREDIBLY INTERESTING.

"The great defining event of the twenty-first century—one of the great defining events in human history—will occur in three decades, give or take, when the global population starts to decline. Once that decline begins, it will never end. We do not face the challenge of a population bomb but of a population bust—a relentless, generation-after-generation culling of the human herd. Nothing like this has ever happened before.” (p. 2).

Everything about the idea of a declining population seems counter-intuitive to me. Surely the population of homo sapiens is destined to continue to expand exponentially until we have exhausted all this planet’s resources, or until we nuke ourselves into oblivion; fighting over those reasouces.

And, yet…In their incredibly interesting and readable offering: Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline, these two Canadian fellows, Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson, extend a laundry list of compelling and convincing arguments why the population will soon begin to decline—perhaps even collapse. Led by global urbanization, the empowerment of woman, and the simple economics of self-interest; the decline of the fertility rate to below replacement level (i.e. 2.1 children per woman) is already well underway, they argue.

So, instead of worrying about breeding ourselves into an ecological disaster and famine, we should be more worried about an aging population becoming too great burden on a shrinking pool of productive (and consuming) youth. Where are we going to find enough young people to prop up the economy and provide for the needs of an ever increasing older, needier, demographic?

Seems we’re damned if we do, and damed if we don’t

Recommendation: I found this book fascinating. I couldn’t put it down. Despite an abundance of statistics, the narrative moved swiftly, and was absorbing. Highly recommended for a new slant on what the not so distant future might hold for mankind.

“The future will make its own way; we must make ours. We must cherish our old and encourage our young and promote equality for all. We must welcome newcomers and share our spaces with them, while preserving freedom and tolerance, which make a society worth living in. Population decline need not be a time of social decline. But we do need to understand what is happening to us and what is about to happen. All the years we’ve been together on this earth, we have never faced such a thing. We will grow fewer. Just imagine.” (p. 240).

Crown/Archetype. Kindle Edition. 277 pages. ...more

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Dec 20, 2020 Érika Le Bourdais rated it really liked it · review of another edition

I really liked the interview aspect of this book. It was interesting to see different points of view about having children around the world. I found this book really insightful. Population decline is a topic known to few but still is a serious thing to take into consideration in the decades to come!

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“On a farm, a child is an investment—an extra pair of hands to milk the cow, or shoulders to work the fields. But in a city a child is a liability, just another mouth to feed.” — 1 likes

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