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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Annie Duke (Goodreads Author)

3.84 · Rating details · 7,032 ratings · 771 reviews

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call real ...more

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Hardcover, 288 pages

Published February 6th 2018 by Portfolio Penguin (first published 2018)

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Mar 31, 2019 Holdon Son rated it really liked it

Light 4. Follows a very by-the-book path in the vein of Gladwell/Levitt (pop culture analogy, thesis statement, bits about statistics, back to analogy), but I feel like there's parts of this I can definitely apply to real life.

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Jun 01, 2020 Mario Tomic rated it liked it

The book started strong, the fundamental idea of viewing life decisions as a poker game where not all factors are known and we have luck at play was great. However, the book itself ended up borrowing a lot of components from other similar books and it wasn't unique enough compared to other books on decision making. If you've been reading a lot about decision making there's probably not much new information here for you.

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Jun 02, 2019 Kauther, A. rated it liked it

I didn’t mind the repetitiveness that much. But someone for the love of FUCK tell Annie Duke that one feels *well*; one does not feel *good*. Am I an extremist Grammar Nazi for expecting sound grammar in a book?

The book was clearly intended for a deeply American audience, as shown by its style and Duke’s choice of stories and analogies. Most annoyingly, the highly detailed stories about American sports. It is truly difficult to follow the points she is trying to make when you haven’t the faintes ...more

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Nov 17, 2019 Terri Mead rated it really liked it

There was so much goodness in this book that I wrote a blog post on why more women should be playing poker and how we should be approaching life as Annie suggests in the book. I listened to it and then bought the hard bound copy so I could highlight sections and refer back periodically.

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Mar 21, 2020 Mike rated it it was amazing

Well written book on what poker teaches you about irrationality in humans.

Derek Sivers wrote a fantastic summery which covered literally all of the key concepts in the book. I copy it here for my use in remembering the book. Find it here - https://sivers.org/book/ThinkingInBets
__________________________________________________________

A bet is a decision about an uncertain future.

Two things determine how your life turns out: the quality of your decisions, and luck. Recognize the difference betwee ...more

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Jan 24, 2020 Manas Saloi rated it it was amazing

If I had completed this in 2019, it would have been in my top 20 books to read list. As someone who has played Poker for a long time, I connected with this book even more

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May 30, 2018 Zhou Fang rated it liked it · review of another edition

I had relatively high expectations for this book as I found it on multiple reading lists. However, I was ultimately disappointed as this book ended up being a literature review of the same studies that have generated many self-help and popular psychology books over the past decade. Annie Duke incorporates her experience both as a doctorate student in psychology and a poker player into the theme of the book (which is mostly about focusing on the process of making positive expected-value bets). Ho I had relatively high expectations for this book as I found it on multiple reading lists. However, I was ultimately disappointed as this book ended up being a literature review of the same studies that have generated many self-help and popular psychology books over the past decade. Annie Duke incorporates her experience both as a doctorate student in psychology and a poker player into the theme of the book (which is mostly about focusing on the process of making positive expected-value bets). However, I don't think this book really adds anything new to the existing literature on similar subjects from books such as Thinking Fast and Slow, Nudge, and others written by behavioral economists. Overall, Duke explicitly shies away from incorporating too much about poker into her book, despite her unique perspective in this area. Instead, she writes yet another unexciting addition to the volumes of psychology literature reviews.

Duke's thesis is that most decisions in life are more like poker than they are like chess. In other words, probability affects the outcome of most decisions. Thus, even if one makes the "right" decision on a probabilistic basis, that decision does not always correlate with the "right" outcome. She opens the book using Pete Carroll's call in the 2015 Super Bowl as the example:

"Pete Carroll was a victim of our tendency to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. Poker players have a word for this: “resulting.” When I started playing poker, more experienced players warned me about the dangers of resulting, cautioning me to resist the temptation to change my strategy just because a few hands didn’t turn out well in the short run."

One aspect that she does focus on which I do believe is insightful is our innate tendency to believe things we hear as facts.

"Two years later, Gilbert and colleagues demonstrated through a series of experiments that our default is to believe that what we hear and read is true. Even when that information is clearly presented as being false, we are still likely to process it as true."

"The subjects were not equally likely to ignore some statements labeled “true” as they were to rely on some statements labeled “false.” Rather, their errors went in one direction: under any sort of pressure, they presumed all the statements were true, regardless of their labeling. This suggests our default setting is to believe what we hear is true."

This is especially relevant for today's world in which we are barraged by both information and disinformation. Interestingly, higher cognitive ability makes people more susceptible to this type of bias, not less:

"The researchers tested subjects for seven cognitive biases and found that cognitive ability did not attenuate the blind spot. “Furthermore, people who were aware of their own biases were not better able to overcome them.” In fact, in six of the seven biases tested, “more cognitively sophisticated participants showed larger bias blind spots.”

She also provides some interesting ways to set up a structure to seek truth in an uncertain world:

"There are several ways to communicate to maximize our ability to engage in a truthseeking way with anyone. First, express uncertainty. Uncertainty not only improves truthseeking within groups but also invites everyone around us to share helpful information and dissenting opinions. Fear of being wrong (or of having to suggest someone else is wrong) countervails the social contract of confirmation, often causing people to withhold valuable insights and opinions from us. If we start by making clear our own uncertainty, our audience is more likely to understand that any discussion that follows will not involve right versus wrong, maximizing our truthseeking exchanges with those outside our chartered group.

Second, lead with assent. For example, listen for the things you agree with, state those and be specific, and then follow with “and” instead of “but.” If there is one thing we have learned thus far it is that we like having our ideas affirmed. If we want to engage someone with whom we have some disagreement (inside or outside our group), they will be more open and less defensive if we start with those areas of agreement, which there surely will be. It is rare that we disagree with everything that someone has to say. By putting into practice the strategies that promote universalism, actively looking for the ideas that we agree with, we will more naturally engage people in the process of learning with us. We will also be more open-minded to what others have to say as well, enhancing our ability to calibrate our own beliefs."

Ultimately, there are a few good insights in this book, but it's not really worth the read. ...more

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Apr 13, 2020 Vincent rated it liked it

O the sting of that Super Bowl play, still feel it as a Seahawk fan. I liked the authors explanation of probabilities and statistics and how you can still be wrong, even though you have made the best choice. I also liked her analysis of the 1 yard line play and how it could have looked if it worked. I also liked her explanation of the probabilities of its success.

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Mar 16, 2018 Howard rated it really liked it

Shelves: self-help

"Our capacity for self-deception has no boundaries."

There is no luck. With a combination of learning and truth-seeking, you can make better decisions in almost every area of your life.

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Mar 25, 2020 Matthias rated it liked it

Shelves: self-improv, psychology

This is a good book with sound advice, if a bit frothy as so many of these kinds of books. It is well written and easy to read, although the whole poker narrative fell a bit apart in the latter half of the book, which I didn't mind as I actually enjoyed it more than the repetitive first half. My Kindle progress meter read 67% when I hit the last page of actual content, the rest was acknowledgements, notes and references, which was a bit disappointing. Overall a light but enjoyable book.

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May 12, 2018 Nick rated it really liked it

Duke's book belongs in the category of books-that-are-useful-to-read-because-they-correct-a-cognitive-bias-you-probably-have. She argues that life is more like poker than chess – you make bets on an uncertain outcome. So don’t mistake the results for the goodness or badness of the decision - your bets will work sometimes, not other times. You make your best decision based on the odds, but you can’t always control the outcome.

Other insights of note in this thoughtful book: our prefrontal cortex i ...more

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Jan 01, 2019 Terry rated it really liked it

Shelves: skepticism, audiobook, non-fiction, 2018, critical-thinking

Thinking in Bets is a compendium of tactics and considerations from a world-class and well-decorated poker champion discussing the lessons being in an environment where beliefs have costs and probabilities associated.

The author goes through a number of issues people have thinking rationally about uncertainty and how to deal with them. One example is when the author asks businesses about their best and worst made decisions and the firms generally reply with the best and worst outcomes. Often a de ...more

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Feb 03, 2020 Zandelicious rated it really liked it

Solid book, I think the key concepts of the book is to give you many tips and insights on how to have an ‘accurate representation of how the world is’.

It’s never black and white, due to the lack of information and uncertainty present. Also, we need to differentiate between causation due to luck or skill, to turkey dissect if the decision made is a quality one. As we can be making poor decision and yet have a positive outcome due to luck or vice versa.

Thus it is always beneficial to be thinking ...more

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Mar 22, 2018 Scott Wozniak rated it it was amazing

This is the best book on disciplined, strategic thinking that I've read in a long time, maybe the best I've read overall. It managed to be humble and challenge me. It gave me broad understanding and specific situations. And, unlike many of the others I've read in this category, the author didn't indulge in trying to push her politics as the most rational.

I recommend this for everyone who makes decisions (which is everyone). :)

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Aug 06, 2018 Rory Toohey rated it it was ok

Dryly and formulaically written (pop culture example, followed by research and the take away). A lot of "what" and "why" to think in bets, but often missing the "how". There's a few interesting ideas to try to implement, but many of the suggestions and lessons seem to either be a) too impractical to actually employ in real life or b) require so much discipline that you'd probably not be having the issue in the first place.

I also still think Pete Carroll made the wrong call.

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Aug 03, 2018 Evert de Ruiter rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

I’m clearly on a lucky streak at the moment, as this was yet another amazing read.

What I loved in particular is that the author crafted a soundly-reasoned central narrative, supported by wonderful cross-references to books I’ve read or am planning to read.

I can’t recommend this book strongly enough to my fellow readers.

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Mar 09, 2018 Juarez Poletto Jr. rated it it was ok

Almost nothing new to the subject, again, a few funny stories, a few tips, a lot of references to other better books.

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Apr 07, 2018 Denis Bulanov rated it did not like it

Did not finish. Very derivative

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Apr 15, 2018 Prashant Ghabak rated it really liked it

Shelves: decision-making, learning, career

Nice read on Probablistic thinking.

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Aug 22, 2018 Deepak Venkatesh rated it did not like it · review of another edition

Shelves: not-so-great

The author rumbles on the same topic till the cows come home. A disappointing book. Did not learn anything new. This book could be written as a 2 pager document.

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Oct 23, 2018 Robert Sanek rated it it was ok

Recommended to Robert by: Will Clausen

Shelves: listened-to

Listened to the first third but the book didn't really grab me. Writing was pretty wordy, and it contained too many pop-sci references to studies in relation to presentation of new ideas.

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Mar 10, 2019 Diego Leal rated it did not like it

Boring.

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Jan 11, 2019 Bryan rated it really liked it

Shelves: psychology

Although I went into reading this book with eyes wide open that this is NOT a "poker book", I cannot lie that my love for the game influenced my decision to pick this up. There were poker references throughout every chapter of the book, which is to be expected given Annie Duke's long tenure as a professional poker player, but they were all high level enough that even someone with only a cursory understanding of poker could appreciate this book.

If I could summarize this book in one sentence it wo Although I went into reading this book with eyes wide open that this is NOT a "poker book", I cannot lie that my love for the game influenced my decision to pick this up. There were poker references throughout every chapter of the book, which is to be expected given Annie Duke's long tenure as a professional poker player, but they were all high level enough that even someone with only a cursory understanding of poker could appreciate this book.

If I could summarize this book in one sentence it would be, "Just because you achieved a disappointing result does not mean that you made a bad decision." Outside of poker, the one example that Duke uses throughout this book is that of Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll's decision to pass the ball in the Super Bowl against the Patriots at the end of the game a few years ago. They were on the 1-yard line with less than a minute to go, down by 4 and with one timeout. When QB Russell Wilson threw an interception, it effectively ended the game, giving the title to the Patriots. After the game, Carroll was lambasted by pundits everywhere for his bad decision. However, Duke argues (and I agree), that if you look at the various probabilities of different outcomes (including a 2% chance of an interception), Carroll still made the right bet. He just got unlucky.

The different sections of this book are variations on this theme. There is nothing overly groundbreaking that doesn't seem logical when reading it, but it is still very interesting and helpful to see a lot of these insights spelled out. In particular, Duke dives into a number of natural human biases and provides tips for counteracting them--the first tip is to be aware that these biases exist. For example, we have natural tendencies to attribute our successes to skill and our failures to bad luck. Likewise, we are apt to explain away others' successes (particularly people that we do not like) as good luck, and their failures as poor skill. The reality is that most outcomes tend to be a combination of skill and luck. Duke also encourages the reader to avoid speaking and thinking in extremes with regard to outcome probabilities. It is very rare that an outcome has either a 0% or 100% probability, so you should discount the various potential outcomes more fairly before making a decision.

Humans also have a strong tendency towards "hindsight bias". We look at an outcome that occurred (which may have been a low probability outcome) and use that to raise our expectation of that same outcome occurring again in the future.

We also have a tendency to gravitate towards those who share our ideas and opinions, leading to "group think". This environment discourages originality of thought and, again, leads us to overestimate the potential that an outcome will be favorable. Duke urges readers to use a "buddy system" to form groups of peers/friends with differing opinions and create a safe environment to provide uninhibited feedback to each other. She gives a number of examples of how her "poker group" has helped her play over the years.

Another thing I found to be interesting was the concept of "mental time travel". She advises people to try to envision their future selves and work backwards from where they want to be to help guide their decisions. She also says to not shy away from envisioning a bad outcome, so you can try to avoid the steps that may lead you there. Thinking 10 minutes, 10 months, or 10 years out also helps you keep things in perspective that are "in the moment". This can help ground you in periods of anger or stress. As an investment professional myself, I found her example of not living and dying by day to day stock market fluctuations very apt. This is something that I often find myself advising clients on in periods of market turbulence.

Overall this was a very quick read and good combination of research and anecdotes. Like many books of its kind it is still probably longer than it needs to be to get its point across. Many of these types of books could really be white papers--but white papers don't sell! ...more

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Apr 05, 2020 Raz Pirata rated it really liked it

Shelves: non-fiction, reviewed, thinking-and-decisions, education

READ IT and thank me, or better yet, thank Annie Duke, later.

“Our bets are only as good as our beliefs”

If you’re still here I’m kind of disappointed because if you haven’t read Thinking in Bets you should, hence the CAPS. But since you are still here and because I don’t mind so much that you are stubborn or not yet convinced that you should stop reading this and start reading Thinking in Bets (aren’t you just ever the defiant) I will give you a bunch of reasons to go do as I say…

1. If you have e ...more

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Jan 03, 2020 David rated it really liked it

Shelves: audiobooks, 2020, psychology-sociology

4 stars with a consideration of 5. The author is a professional poker player, and her insights into what makes successful poker harmonizes well with probabilistic thinking in statistics and psychology. I knew I would like this book coming in. In the past few years, I've made a conscious effort to not only make probabilities something I seek in every situation, but also to eliminate the words "never" and "always". Something always happens until it doesn't for some reason. Something never happens ...more

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Feb 17, 2020 Jonathan Mannhart rated it really liked it

Only giving this four stars because I knew 90% of the stuff... Sheesh. Maybe I need to reevaluate my rating strategy? What do stars even mean?

Good things: Very good introduction to probability in everyday life with Bayesian undertones and being generally mindful of dismissing (emotionally unwanted) evidence by the ways of unchecked biases. Can also be learned either by reading Yudkowsky‘s Sequences, some probability or statistics courses, or reading books you tend to disagree with in a charitabl ...more

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Sep 16, 2019 Cheryl rated it really liked it

Very interesting book about decision making. Knowing the probabilities of various outcomes and understanding the element of luck, we can make better decisions. It doesn't mean that those decisions will always be the correct decisions, because there is always a possibility that if the probability of an outcome is 80%, the outcome may very well be part of the 20% probability. Duke writes of the tendency to equate the quality of a decision and the quality of its outcome. Sometimes a decision is rea ...more

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Dec 14, 2018 Michael Huang marked it as to-read

[blinks are good. suspect book itself has little more to offer. Scan anyway]

* Judging the quality of decision by looking at the result (that is forgetting probabilistic nature of any decision) is called “resulting” by poker players.

* We have hardwired tendency to believe, not truth seeking. In fact, we tried to reinforce it with *motivated reasoning*. (I observe this behavior quite often, but it’s funny that scientists have even given it a name.) One way to reduce bias is to bet on it. When face ...more

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Sep 27, 2019 Robert Melnyk rated it really liked it

Interesting book about making decisions by thinking in terms of bets instead of certainty. In other words, understanding that nothing is 100% certain. In making a decision, the outcome of that decision is not 100% certain. So, you can make a good decision and have a bad outcome, or you can make a bad decision and have a good outcome. A prime example Duke uses throughout the book is the decision made by Pete Carroll in Super Bowl XLIX to pass on 2nd and goal from the 1 yard line with seconds rema ...more

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Jun 10, 2020 Kate rated it really liked it

At the beginning, she said the book was not about poker. For a book not about poker, I would bet "poker" was the most used word outside of "the" and "and".
Excessive poker references aside, this was actually a really good book about how to get out of the auto reactions that evolution created for you and look at situations and decisions in a more probabilistic light. She discusses how to look back at the decision and judge it not based on the outcomes (which have luck also factored in), but wheth ...more

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About Annie Duke

Annie Duke

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Annie Duke (born Anne LaBarr Lederer) is a professional poker player and author who won a bracelet in the 2004 World Series of Poker $2,000 Omaha Hi-Low Split-8 or Better Event and was the winner of the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions, where she earned the Winner-Take-All prize of $2,000,000.

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“What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of “I’m not sure.” — 8 likes

“In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.” — 8 likes

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