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Пришестя роботів. Техніка і загроза майбутнього безробіття

4.04  ·  Rating details ·  5,434 Ratings  ·  567 Reviews
У книжці футуролога з Массачусетського технологічного інституту Мартіна Форда йдеться про штучний інтелект і роботехніку, чиї можливості вже перевершують всяку уяву, руйнують стереотипи і конкурують з людським мозком. Автор скурпульозно досліджує технологічні інновації і моделює недалеке майбутнє, коли машини замінять людей і заживуть своїм життям. Ця книжка похитне віру ч ...more
Hardcover, 400 pages
Published 2016 by Наш формат (first published May 5th 2015)
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Kevin Varney The author's main suggestion was universal basic income, but how do you pay for it?
Nursing is a job that is hard to automate. It will be a long time…more
The author's main suggestion was universal basic income, but how do you pay for it?
Nursing is a job that is hard to automate. It will be a long time before robots have enough dexterity and versatility for that. I think a lot of the trades are resistant to automation. A robot can't climb your roof and fit a TV aerial. I was talking about this with some friends. I have a friend who's a sports masseur; robots can't do that. Her daughter's a hairdresser; robot's can't do that. Another is a pest controller; robots can't do that. Another is a teacher; robot's can't keep control of a class. There are other jobs which even if they could be automated, you might prefer a real person, e.g. barmaid. Jobs like book-keeping could be automated, and a lot of white collar jobs could be de-skilled.(less)
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Warwick
A popular campfire ghost story among businesses and economists these days is the ‘jobless future’ – the idea that rampant industrial automation and computerisation will soon mean a world where intelligent robots can do everything we can better and more efficiently than we can do it. At this year's World Economic Forum, everyone seemed keen to argue against this scenario, and I spent most of the week trudging across Davos from one freezing interviewee to another who wanted to tell me why it wasn' ...more
Hadrian
Deeply unsettling vision of the future where automation and machine learning replace a greater percentage of the human workforce, causing a mass reduction in employment and a reduced role in consumption. Conjures up images of the nightmare world of 'Elysium', where elites shutter themselves off from the unemployed, wanting, masses.

Calls for a massive restructure of government and society to adapt to this change in employment structure, and he makes the case this will happen whether we want to o
...more
Richard
May 22, 2015 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
Recommends it for: Pretty much everyone under 55
Update October 2015: (previous updates after my review)

Something pretty close to the top end of the human cognitive spectrum might be the skill of seeking a pattern in a mass of chaotic data. Oh, sorry — that's another trick a computer seems to be able to do much more easily than us. See System that replaces human intuition with algorithms outperforms human teams.

                            ❦

In the coming years, your job is very likely to evaporate. That might mean now , or it might mean twe
...more
Clif Hostetler
Oct 26, 2015 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: current-events
The premise of Rise of the Robots is simple: technology is accelerating so rapidly that automation is on the verge of taking over not just straight-forward physically oriented jobs but also "brain power" jobs as well in such fields as law, healthcare, journalism, engineering, and computer programming.

Similar sorts of warnings have been around since the time of the Luddites. So it's easy to disregard these warnings as one more dystopian prediction of the technological future (e.g. Where's the fl
...more
Mal Warwick
Jun 01, 2015 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: nonfiction
Warren Buffett, who ought to know, recently told shareholders of his investment company, Berkshire-Hathaway, that the development of driverless cars poses a “real threat” to the insurance industry. Buffett cares a lot about insurance, because he’s got billions invested in it. But he might have broadened his concern to encompass the entire economy. Because the emerging application of robotics poses a “real threat” to the future wellbeing of our country and the world. In Rise of the Robots, Silico ...more
Knut
May 04, 2016 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: technology
Martin Ford is a Silicon Valley software entrepreneur and to put it simply, a polymath. He did not without reason win the 2015 Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year Award: Rise of the Robots – Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future is the first book in the 21st century which succeeds to combine the impacts of technology and economics onto mankind. It therefore rightly deserves to take the book award from the 2014 winner Capital in the 21st century, because Thomas Piketty’s analys ...more
Atila Iamarino
Uma discussão bem interessante e embasada sobre automação e o futuro do mercado de trabalho. O Martin Ford consegue deixar bem claro que não tem um limite definido para o tipo de trabalho que será automatizado – até fazer hambúrguer em lanchonete está a perigo – e dá uma boa perspectiva sobre os avanços em várias áreas de tecnologia. É um livro que vai ficar desatualizado em poucos anos, mas por enquanto vale muito.

Um ponto que fica muito evidente é como o processo de substituição já está aconte
...more
precaf
Jul 26, 2015 rated it it was ok  ·  review of another edition
“Rise of the Robots" begins with a survey of the technology landscape – an over-clocked world where change seems to follow Moore's Law – doubling in speed every couple of years. Ford paints a picture of the capabilities of robots and the dismal economic climate for humans that has existed since the mid-seventies: real wages are declining; wealth is being concentrated in the hands of 1% of the nation; half of all college graduates are not finding work that can use their college education; even hi ...more
บอมบุง พ่อยอดคะน้าอ่อน
ถือวาเปน Non Fiction เรืองเทคโนโลยีทีอานสนุกและเปิดหูเปิดตาดีครับ นาเสียดายทีบางชวงตอนดันไปใชเวลากับเรืองนโยบายซะเยอะ โดยเฉพาะนโยบายดานสุขภาพ (ตอนอานบทนัน รูสึกเหมือนอานหนังสือคนละเลม) แตโดยรวมแลว ถือวาเปนหนังสือแนะนำในยุคนีครับ แมวาหุนยนตอาจไมไดผงาด 100% ในยุคเรา แตกนาสนใจวาโลกในอนาคตทีมีระบบเศรษฐกิจไรงานจะเปนอยางไร ...more
Clare O'Beara
This is a top-class, broad look at our use of machinery to do our work in the past, present and somewhat scary future.
We look at how co-operative strategies such as the co-ordinated build, factory, design teams and production line speeded up our work and production.
But today we have better tools to make the tools that make the machines, and we have faster, smarter computers. We are even approaching machine intelligence in some areas, and as I write the chess and go champions have been beaten b
...more
Peter Mcloughlin
Many times people have cried wolf about automation and the risk of extreme unemployment from computers and robotics but this time the wolf may actually make an appearance. AI which always like Brazil was destined for future greatness and always would be is finally becoming a reality. The book details developments that have a serious potential of displacing not only manual and low level clerical workers but professionals who never thought they could be rendered redundant by robotics and AI. We a ...more
Bryan Alexander
Rise of the Robots is a brisk, accessible overview of current thinking about the possibilities of automation.

Martin Ford takes us through the major issues, technologies, and problems. He begins with several chapters exploring what we mean by automation (robotics plus good software), the importance of developments over the past decade, and the macroeconomic context. Then the chapters advance through the potential impact of automation on white collar jobs (management, professions), education, hea
...more
Stephen
Dec 24, 2017 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
Excellent book to start the New Year off with as it really makes you consider the future.
It doesn't sound too appealing though - mass unemployment, increasing inequality as all but the highest level jobs get replaced by machines and ultimately the threat that we aren't in control at all as the machines become super intelligent. And of course the problem, for the economy that machines might be cheaper but they aren't consumers - liked the story of Henry Ford II and his union leader - Ford: "How a
...more
Ken-ichi
Most of this book makes a pretty convincing case that automation is going to replace most jobs in the next 50 years, maybe less. I think I buy that, and thus I am personally worried, since a good portion of my job as a software engineer is probably automatable (in large part the actual coding I do involves writing boilerplate and figuring out how to integrate third party software, which, in theory, a machine could do quite well, with far less angst; in short, I am already a blue-collar coder, an ...more
William Kyle Spratt
Argues for larger taxes and a guaranteed income globally to combat the displacement of jobs due to technology. A lack of understanding of economics drives the author to this incorrect conclusion that taxes will create prosperity rather than individuals be responsible on acquiring new skills to adjust to the shift in jobs available. Author also cites incorrect statistics on productivity and wages and spends little time on the emergence of new technology and what the world will look like. I sugges ...more
Son Tung
Dec 24, 2016 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
The first book which introduces me to the real advancement + implication/speculation of AI tech for future economy. There is a prospect that not only old jobs but also white collar jobs will be replaced by the rise of more and more sophisticated intelligent machines. The results are serious, its about the widening gap of wealth, work crisis and social inequality.
Miles
May 06, 2015 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
If you decide to read one piece of nonfiction this summer, let this be it.

Martin Ford’s Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future is one of the most intelligent and important works of futurism to date. Although the book’s title might trigger images of popcorn and 3D glasses rather than a sober analysis of Earth’s economic future, Ford’s arguments are politically balanced, meticulously supported, and cleanly presented for non-specialists. His message––that technological un
...more
Katia N
Feb 16, 2017 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
The book is a bit patchy in the quality of its analysis. But, I guess, the author is pioneering the new area in a wider public discourse. I could not find any other mainstream, relatively impartial and newer book on the subject.

What I liked about the book was the detailed and clear analysis of the current economic trends, such as the decline of labour share in GDP, inequality, inability of recent graduates to find suitable jobs etc.

What i did not find so convincing was the casual link between
...more
Rushi
Dec 26, 2015 rated it liked it  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: 2015, non-fiction
Rise of the Robots (RoR) was voted as the Financial Time's Business Book of the Year* for 2015.

I found the book to be a disappointment. RoR goes over well trodden territory around automation, the shift of from a labour driven economy to a capital driven economy and the impending collapse of the consumption due to the shrinking middle class. Mr. Ford also provides a brief tour of the issues around the emergence of general purpose Artificial Intelligence** and nano technology. The book concludes w
...more
Quintin Zimmermann
Rise of the Robots begins and ends like a dry, dense textbook replete with graphs, charts and statistics.

It is the middle part of the book that was the most illuminating and fascinating at times. I expected the author to delve solely into the loss of the blue-collar, menial jobs to robots, only to realise that the white-collar professionals are just as vulnerable to technological innovation.

Narrative Science's Quill software has already automated the creation of news articles for many widely kn
...more
Jysoo
May 28, 2015 rated it liked it  ·  review of another edition
This book is more of an extended edition of “the lights in the tunnel”. The author made significant updates on the present and future of smart machine or robot. On the other hand, he didn’t add too much on potential strategies to prevent disappearance of “lights”---including tax system and virtual jobs, which I feel to be main strength of his works.
Don
Ford sets out the case for worrying about the advances being made in the fields of robotics and AI and the impacts they can be expected to have on society. He agrees that it is a familiar trope – machines replacing human workers, causing unemployment and hardship for those affected – and that the many predictions made in the past for an impending jobs armageddon have not come to pass. But he marshals a large amount of data that tells us that this time it will be different.

Drawing on mainly US ev
...more
Melinda
May 22, 2018 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: nonfiction
Seems to me the first part of this book is the better half with all the charts and data backing up Ford's general premise that workers are being replaced by technology and the widening economic gap between the top 5% and everyone else isn't helping. First, robots and automation can do simple, repetitive tasks. Next robots and AI with deep learning capability can connect and communicate with each other; robots can now "learn" on their own, correct their mistakes, and become more efficient. Compan ...more
Jay
May 02, 2018 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
This book purports to be about robots, and given the cover, with a blurry picture of a human, I assumed it would be about humanoid robots. That is but a small part of this book. In my work I always have to talk about the “march of technology”. What that means is that the solution you create today should be better than what you had yesterday, but it won’t be the best given the changes we’ll see by tomorrow. This is the idea behind this book, that technology is automating more work, in more ways, ...more
Rod Van Meter
Jun 02, 2015 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
I finished this book several weeks ago, and a number of my thoughts are already starting to fade, and the whole is starting to blend into an impression with details no longer sharp, so forgive the vagueness and brevity of the review. (The start and finish dates below are also approximate.)

Ford musters a fair amount of detail on how automation is taking over many industries, and the book is very timely, with a lot of fresh data (as of early 2015). He covers manufacturing, of course, but also cons
...more
Max Nova
Where Ford's first book was a revelation, his second book is a disappointment. He adds very little new to the conversation with "Rise of the Robots" - for the most part this book is a recycled laundry list of popular news articles about cool startups and technologies that are making progress in various areas of automation. If you've read his first book, The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future or Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolut ...more
Sandra T
Una opinione pessimista sull'avvento delle macchine nel mondo del lavoro, dalla produzione di beni alla distribuzione dei servizi, fino alla sostituzione totale degli esseri umani, anche i più istruiti e talentuosi in ambiti considerati sicuri come la creatività artistica o la costruzione e manutenzione delle macchine stesse (ahi ahi, le reti neurali). Ne esce una visione distopica in cui la massa, in larghissima maggioranza, sta erodendo il suo margine di spesa discrezionale fin dagli anni '70 ...more
Doichin Cholakov
Jun 02, 2016 rated it did not like it  ·  review of another edition
With the Swiss Referendum on the universal basic income coming in three days you might be interested in the intellectual undercurrents that made the idea so widely popular lately.

This book actually is a good point to start. It is atrociously primitive in terms of both style and quality of the research, but seems to powerfully strike a chord and has collected a good amount of raving reviews and distinctions. The argument goes like that - since when we open the whatever media we are reading we see
...more
Anetq
Jan 11, 2017 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: non-fiction
En udmærket og realistisk gennemgang af mulige fremtidsscenarier, når robotterne kommer og overtager det meste af arbejdet for os. Og vi kommer meget længere under overfladen end de sædvanlige fremtidsoptimistiske Kurzweill-disciples slideshows i stilen "Wuuuuhuuu fremtiden kommer med selvkørende biler lige om lidt" (Ja og hvad så?). Vi kommer godt ned i både global og nationaløkonomi, alle de mekanismer der er på spil, og hvad de førende eksperter mener om fremtiden - og Ford citerer ikke kun d ...more
Aaron Arnold
The Star Trek replicator has long been a dream of humanity - completely automated provision of the means of subsistence, with the potential to eliminate unprecedented amounts of drudgery. Far from everyone being freed to pursue their dreams of becoming starship captains, though, it's entirely possible that the current dramatic increase in automation will simply put humans out of work, whether those humans are low-wage burger-flippers, manufacturing workers at home or offshore, or white-shoe corp ...more
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Martin Ford is the author of the two books Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future (2015) and The Lights In the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future (2009) — both dealing with the effects of automation and mass-unemployment. He is the founder of a Silicon Valley-based software development firm, and obtained a computer engineering degre ...more
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“I find it somewhat ironic that many conservatives in the United States are adamant about securing the border against immigrants who will likely take jobs that few Americans want, while at the same time expressing little concern that the virtual border is left completely open to higher-skill workers who take jobs that Americans definitely do want.” 8 likes
“In 2012, Google, for example, generated a profit of nearly $14 billion while employing fewer than 38,000 people.9 Contrast that with the automotive industry. At peak employment in 1979, General Motors alone had nearly 840,000 workers but earned only about $11 billion—20 percent less than what Google raked in. And, yes, that’s after adjusting for inflation.” 5 likes
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