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The Curse of Cash

Kenneth S. Rogoff

3.57 · Rating details · 212 ratings · 37 reviews

From the New York Times bestselling author of This Time Is Different, "a fascinating and important book" (Ben Bernanke) about phasing out most paper money to fight crime and tax evasion--and to battle financial crises by tapping the power of negative interest rates

The world is drowning in cash--and it's making us poorer and less safe. In The Curse of Cash, Kenneth Rogoff, From the New York Times bestselling author of This Time Is Different, "a fascinating and important book" (Ben Bernanke) about phasing out most paper money to fight crime and tax evasion--and to battle financial crises by tapping the power of negative interest rates

The world is drowning in cash--and it's making us poorer and less safe. In The Curse of Cash, Kenneth Rogoff, one of the world's leading economists, makes a persuasive and fascinating case for an idea that until recently would have seemed outlandish: getting rid of most paper money.

Even as people in advanced economies are using less paper money, there is more cash in circulation--a record $1.4 trillion in U.S. dollars alone, or $4,200 for every American, mostly in $100 bills. And the United States is hardly exceptional. So what is all that cash being used for? The answer is simple: a large part is feeding tax evasion, corruption, terrorism, the drug trade, human trafficking, and the rest of a massive global underground economy.

As Rogoff shows, paper money can also cripple monetary policy. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, central banks have been unable to stimulate growth and inflation by cutting interest rates significantly below zero for fear that it would drive investors to abandon treasury bills and stockpile cash. This constraint has paralyzed monetary policy in virtually every advanced economy, and is likely to be a recurring problem in the future.

The Curse of Cash offers a plan for phasing out most paper money--while leaving small-denomination bills and coins in circulation indefinitely--and addresses the issues the transition will pose, ranging from fears about privacy and price stability to the need to provide subsidized debit cards for the poor.

While phasing out the bulk of paper money will hardly solve the world's problems, it would be a significant step toward addressing a surprising number of very big ones. Provocative, engaging, and backed by compelling original arguments and evidence, The Curse of Cash is certain to spark widespread debate. ...more

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Hardcover, 283 pages

Published August 19th 2016 by Princeton University Press (first published July 19th 2016)

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Sep 06, 2016 Athan Tolis rated it really liked it

Shelves: ec-and-finance

Back in the days of the Apollo 11, the program ran into a major problem: the biro ball-point pen could not work in the absence of gravity and was useless in space. A bit like what happens if you try to use yours on a wall. Famously, a high-tech solution was devised that solved this problem once and for all. “Space pens” featuring micro-canisters of pressurized gas were designed and fabricated in time for the mission. The gas applied the pressure to the ink and copious notes were duly taken in sp ...more

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Sep 18, 2016 Kammie rated it did not like it

This book is farcical.

Rogoff's solutions are de facto debt defaults and admissions that the government can not pay it debts. His solution is quite simply a back-door method to debt default by the government and at the expense of individual liberty and privacy.

I did enjoy reading the book, but Rogoff's arguments are spurious and meant to further the interests of government and not the interests of the people whom government actually serves.
Perhaps Rogoff should consider writing a book in praise o ...more

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Jan 11, 2017 I rated it did not like it

The failed demonetisation experiment in India is enough to show the shallowness of this Harvard economics professor's arguments

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Jun 03, 2017 Sathya rated it really liked it

Phasing out cash and the likely implications for its aren’t exactly watercooler talk. Yet, this was the focus of a lot of conversations that I used to have with an ex-colleague, where we imagined several scenarios of an economy operating without cash, how it would function and how it would affect the man-on-the-street in the short and long terms. Thus, The Curse of Cash was one I picked up with much interest and I wasn’t disappointed.

The book is a well-thought argument for the removal of cash f Phasing out cash and the likely implications for its aren’t exactly watercooler talk. Yet, this was the focus of a lot of conversations that I used to have with an ex-colleague, where we imagined several scenarios of an economy operating without cash, how it would function and how it would affect the man-on-the-street in the short and long terms. Thus, The Curse of Cash was one I picked up with much interest and I wasn’t disappointed.

The book is a well-thought argument for the removal of cash from economies – albeit slowly starting with bigger denominations. Though some parts of it are repetitive (if I had a penny for every time the author said that small denomination notes or coins should be left to operate indefinitely…), the book included a decent consideration of the economic implications and potential fallouts of removing cash from circulation – including involved discussions of negative interest rates and alternates to a cashless existence, such as digital currencies.

The author argues that the phasing out of cash should start in more developed economies (the US, the UK or the European Union), pointing out that emerging economies might not yet be ready for such a transition. He also argues that many of the problems that people posit could arise by removing cash from the system can be tackled or nullified by phasing out physical currency incrementally over a long period of time.

And this is true – when small changes are made, governments give enough time for people to acclimatise and adapt and accept the new normal, making further introductions of changes easier to implement.

The important point that the author fails to consider in the book is the fact that entirely digital currency transactions kill the possibility of any privacy for people. According to him, people should be permitted to have private shielded transactions on the edge of the system, once cash has bene phased out, but doesn’t define how this would work in practice. Removing physical currency from any economy will curtail a lot of criminal activities (one of the strongest arguments for removing cash), but it will also mean the collapse of privacy for populations.

The other lapse is the lack of coverage on the potential social implications of such a transition – slow as it might be – especially on the reasonable percentages of people who live without accounts and do not come into contact with the banking system at all (even in developed economies).

The book demands some awareness of macroeconomics, and it will certainly help if you get into it with some awareness of the currency changes taking place around the world and the toying of banks with negative interest in the last few years (particularly after the 2008 financial crisis).

Highly recommended if you are looking for a cogent economic argument for phasing out cash. If you are more interested in the social angle, then give this one a miss.
...more

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Jun 20, 2017 Karel Baloun rated it liked it

Rogoff effectively proves that large denomination bills only help crime and tax evasion, and that they have no other legitimate utility. He does this with very strong data and analysis, and shows governments allow this explicitly for profit (~0.5% of GDP, in seigniorage, in two distinct ways), and charts a more profitable path for democratic governance. Just this, in 30 pages would have been 5-stars, and the first sections of 100pgs may be worth a read, if you want to be convinced of this pretty ...more

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Oct 25, 2016 Travis Scher rated it liked it

Very academic in style, but an important topic to those interested in the future of money and macroeconomic policy. The author does a good job presenting his case, but two arguments for eliminating most paper currency are basically unrelated - first, to reduce crime and tax evasion, and second, to enable effective negative interest rate policy. This left the book feeling a bit disharmonious, but both are arguments are interesting in their own right.

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Feb 05, 2017 Iworld1991 rated it really liked it

A timely read in light of the chaotic demonetization in India.

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Jul 21, 2018 Zhi Wei Lee rated it really liked it

Good read for those wanting to understand the potential adverse effects of cash usage. The book is not without its critics, but I would recommend it to anyone who has an interest in either encouraging greater cashlessness or in defending the use of cash. I've summarised the gist of the insights from the book below, but this may obscure some of the finer nuances and analytical details (e.g. data analysis) - for which reading the book itself would be necessary IMO.

Arguments for phasing out cash
- ...more

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Dec 18, 2016 John Mihelic rated it it was amazing

Rogoff argues that we should eliminate big bills like US $100 and its big economy equivalents. Doing so will have two benefits.

The first benefit is that most people do not use large bill. These are in the financial system in the gray and black economy where having dense stores of value that are also a medium of exchange facilitates crime like drug dealing and human trafficking. There is profit to the issuing countries of these bills, a seignorage income that would be lost if these bills were pul Rogoff argues that we should eliminate big bills like US $100 and its big economy equivalents. Doing so will have two benefits.

The first benefit is that most people do not use large bill. These are in the financial system in the gray and black economy where having dense stores of value that are also a medium of exchange facilitates crime like drug dealing and human trafficking. There is profit to the issuing countries of these bills, a seignorage income that would be lost if these bills were pulled from the economy, but the ills caused and made easier by their presence are worse than the loss.

The other benefit is that by not having cash around, it gives the central banks more space to move interest rates if necessary. Right now, there is an effective floor at zero percent that the Federal Reserve and its sister institutions can’t go much lower because once you impose significant costs to keeping money in reserves, then the option is to hold cash. There is some cost to holding large quantities of cash so Japan and some European banks have gone a bit below zero, but not that far. This space is important because even conservative Taylor rules of setting the interest rates would have been significantly negative in the aftermath of 2008. The zero-bound kept the Fed from going lower and it may have significantly increased the duration of the downturn in the aftermath of the crisis (especially since in the US and Europe where there was little help from fiscal policy because austerian parties bought into the fallacious idea of the family analogy for governments).

I’m on Rogoff’s side here, especially since it isn’t new to me as I have seen the idea at length in the work of Miles Kimball (ex-Michigan, now at CU) as he has made the argument on his blog. I’m more a supporter because of the second reason, which I am sure is the more controversial part of his argument – many people are suspicious of central bank activity, and they feel that giving the banks more leeway would encourage the activist central banks. I am of the opinion that independent monetary policy needs all possible weapons in its quiver as we have seen inaction at the exchequer cause real damage in the real economy.
...more

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Nov 05, 2017 Darshan Pala rated it liked it

Rogoff is a successful economist who has also worked in the federal reserve in the days of the great moderation, however, he presents a very deep foresight into inherent limits the federal reserve has in dealing with recessions. He presents a somewhat convincing case of retiring cash money from the economy in favor of going digital. He does so by citing many plausible explanation, the most serious one being the limits cash puts on a central bank ability to prescribe negative overnight rate. He g Rogoff is a successful economist who has also worked in the federal reserve in the days of the great moderation, however, he presents a very deep foresight into inherent limits the federal reserve has in dealing with recessions. He presents a somewhat convincing case of retiring cash money from the economy in favor of going digital. He does so by citing many plausible explanation, the most serious one being the limits cash puts on a central bank ability to prescribe negative overnight rate. He gives many other moral and social reasons in favor of his case, the main one being to discourage malicious transactions in the underworld, which mainly deals in cash which is basically untraceable. The book gets pretty technical in the second half, Rogoff has clearly spent a lot of time in thinking about this topic and deeply cares for it. He gives several legal, social, fiscal, political and contractual limits that this plan may have, but is very quick in dismissing every one of them as a mere detail that can be ironed out with relative ease. He also presents alternative ways that the policy can be implemented, the most convincing being the Kimball-Agarwal approach of a dual currency. He concludes by giving a wake up call to all the wanna-be libertarians that cryptocurrencies like bitcoin cannot compete with a large organization like the government which has tremendous incentives in keeping its monopoly on the monetary supply.
Although, it seems that Rogoff has clearly done his research, I feel that he misses a much deeper point made by Hayek: it is very difficult to understand all the subtle things that help a market function. Extending the central bank's powers is not the part of the solution, it may very well be the cause of the problem in the first place. He acknowledges this Austrian/Chicago view in the book but is still convinced that something is better than nothing and there must be a balance between the Hayek and Keynes.
Overall, a provocative read for anyone interested in macroeconomics. ...more

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Dec 05, 2016 Xavier Shay rated it really liked it

If you can accept the idea that a central bank should manage currency, this is a very well written book with a nuanced argument that seems pretty reasonable. Basically phase out the big notes, keep the small ones, while fairly addressing any potential objection you care to come up with. Many 1 star reviews (mostly on Amazon) likely written by people who didn't read it.

"Almost 80% of the US currency supply is in $100 bills."
"showing that 1 in 20 adults carries around a $100 bill is not quite the ...more

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Aug 16, 2017 Nils rated it really liked it

Shelves: deviant-globalization

Not entirely clear that we needed a book-length treatise on this topic, but certainly this book is the definitive statement of both the social ills caused by the circulation of large amounts of large-denomination cash (notably, the facilitation of various crimes and associated money laundering) , but also the way cash represents a very serious part of the Lower-bound constraint on monetary policy, I.e. The ability to set negative interest rates during financial downturns.

(Of course, in a sense t ...more

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Jan 11, 2017 Field rated it liked it

This has been the only book that I strongly agree with half of the content and disagree with the rest.

The book in general talked about 2 opinions, one serving the other. First, the author proposed to reduce the supply of cash, or paper money to be specific. Accordingly, individuals and companies will be forced to hold the majority of the assets in electronic banking accounts. Therefore, the country can easily apply a negative interest rate to stimulate when a recession is foreseeable.

I strongl ...more

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Feb 13, 2018 Ben rated it it was ok

Rogoff's position here is basically that cash enables a whole range of illicit activity, and constrains monetary policy. He spends roughly equal time on each and maybe shouldn't, as the first issue feels like it gets a cursory treatment and the latter being a very deep dive into the mechanics of Federal Reserve policymaking, the history of negative interest rates, etc.

I am not an economist -- maybe this book (though it is not presented that way) is calibrated to work in economic circles. Maybe ...more

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Sep 22, 2018 Fabio krauss stabel rated it it was ok

The author has a interesting points on how a cashless society would work. But he is a huge ideologue. He proposes full control of money by governments via banning cash. His main points are : if you're not money laundering or evading taxes, it shouldn't affect you. The fact that then negative interest rates become easy to implement is seen as a positive thing.

He also fails to mention how cashless societies make financial ostracism something extremely easy to do. Check what Julian Assange or Snowd ...more

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Apr 05, 2018 Evan rated it liked it

Shelves: audiobook

This book presents a strong challenge to my belief that cash is worth keeping. However, the book epitomizes the adage, "If you don't have a good reason, you better have many." At times, Rogoff throws every possible argument at readers just to see what sticks. IMO, it would be better to present a more concise set and offer possible counterarguments.
About half of his argument relies on the difficulties of monetary policy at the effective lower bound, and how a cash-minimal society would obliterate ...more

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Dec 26, 2017 Terence Ward rated it did not like it

The author has served on the board of the Federal Reserve, and since his ideas were universally ignored there, he wrote a book about them instead. It's easy to tell he is an economist, because he quickly presumes the myth of barter — deftly debunked in David Graeber's magnum opus "Debt" — is real. That red flag early on should be enough to warn off the educated, at least.

Rogoff's notion is that paper currency is a bad thing. He spends half the book sowing fear about criminals and terrorists, but ...more

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Aug 17, 2017 Viewpoints Radio rated it it was amazing

Shelves: viewpoints_radio

For generations, cash was the way Americans paid for things. But in the age of debit cards, credit cards, and virtual payments like Venmo or Bitcoin, cash is becoming less and less necessary for most of us. This week on Viewpoints Radio explore why that is, and who is still using cash in this new economy. Listen now: https://viewpointsradio.wordpress.com...

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Jan 23, 2018 Steven C. rated it it was ok

The author provides many compelling points to eliminate cash... specifically the large denominations. I wasn’t intriguing reading this book and the arguments provided. However I felt the author drifted from the topic many times and I became disinterested. It felt more like a required textbook at times.

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Jan 15, 2018 Dwijendra Kashyap rated it really liked it

Not sure why big bills need not be in circulation? Cash is curse for humanity now, as it is used more as black money than as means of exchange, particularly big denominations. Logically explained, data intensive good effort. Must read for all citizens who know the meaning of curse.

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Sep 24, 2017 Ben Ewing rated it it was ok

A supremely interesting idea (that we should kill off cash, or at least large bills), but I found myself skimming.

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Nov 13, 2018 Patrdr rated it it was amazing

Shelves: economics

I note that this book generates a wide dispersion in star allocation! In part this is probably because there is a wide range of beliefs about money, some rational, some more or less superstitious. It's certainly not the kind of book most of us would read for pleasure.
The subject matter surprised me. I had studies a fair bit of monetary economics and, as Rogoff points out, cash or currency was largely treated as a side-line of the big issues. The book convinced me that this is a mistake, mostly.
F ...more

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Apr 26, 2017 Manoj Gubbala rated it really liked it

Very informative book. Talks about the truths of cash and the role it plays in our current society. Makes you realize that big note cash is useless and is mostly used only to pay for illegal activities like drugs, human trafficking, and paying illegal immigrants. Rogoff makes his point that if we abolish cash, except for small notes, our economy would greatly benefit since it would reduce the trades of the black market by a significant amount.

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Nov 15, 2016 Mariah rated it it was amazing

In this revolutionary new book, Rogoff carefully delineates how we can transition to a cashless (or nothing greater than $20 bills) society. His plan to wean our society off of big bills is exceptionally detailed and carefully presented. His explains the concepts in a lucid, meticulous way – addressing every practical and philosophical concern with the transition convincingly (loss of liberty, plans for those that have limited access to credit, etc). His deep knowledge on the subject warrants pi In this revolutionary new book, Rogoff carefully delineates how we can transition to a cashless (or nothing greater than $20 bills) society. His plan to wean our society off of big bills is exceptionally detailed and carefully presented. His explains the concepts in a lucid, meticulous way – addressing every practical and philosophical concern with the transition convincingly (loss of liberty, plans for those that have limited access to credit, etc). His deep knowledge on the subject warrants picking up the book, even if it is simply to peruse the idea for unique conversation material. Rogoff’s thoughts are germane to every person that exists within a cash-spending society.

The organization of the book is set up so that you can navigate directly to chapters and topics of interest. Chapter 4 “Holdings of Currency in the Domestic, Legal, Tax-Paying Economy” was particularly compelling. I was shocked to read that in 2015 – based on the amount of US currency being held outside of banks – every man, woman, and child should have $4200 under their mattress. For every friend that you know that does not have $4200 in a coffee tin somewhere in their house, a large percentage of those bills are propping up the “underground economy.” Rogoff defines the “underground economy” as blatantly illegal activities such as “drug trade, extortion, bribes, human trafficking, and money laundering…”(p.58). There are also “ordinary people” and businesses that use cash to dodge reporting requirements, get a better rate for labor, and underreport revenues to tax authorities. Of course, tax evasion means that “law-abiding citizens…have to pay more.” (p. 59) In 2006, the estimated “tax gap” – what was due vs. what was collected – was $450 billion (p.60)! Eliminating this loophole seems like an elegant solution to these problems, especially in the carefully crafted manner that Dr. Rogoff proposes.

Rogoff’s concepts – while still just in the idea stage - are ahead of his time, and remarkably innovative….As such, they are challenging to conceive of, and may be met with resistance. But most good ideas started this way. How many people do you think told Ben Franklin, Thomas Edison, the Wright Brothers, or Steve Jobs how crazy their ideas were—at first, anyway? The ideas from many of the greatest people in history were rejected before the idea’s progenitor became a “visionary." Rogoff’s book is a window and roadmap into our future financial interactions that are “out there” now, but will be commonplace soon enough. ...more

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Oct 16, 2016 Warren Mcpherson rated it liked it

Shelves: people-at-work

The book argues that paper cash should be phased out. It doesn't seem to make the case on merit but interestingly shows how the government may move in that direction for its own reasons.
The main argument is that cash primarily is used to support criminal activity and tax evasion. While criminals certainly do use cash, the assertion that non-criminals do not hold much of the cash outstanding rests on survey data. The obvious likelihood such data would systematically under-represent reality is not The book argues that paper cash should be phased out. It doesn't seem to make the case on merit but interestingly shows how the government may move in that direction for its own reasons.
The main argument is that cash primarily is used to support criminal activity and tax evasion. While criminals certainly do use cash, the assertion that non-criminals do not hold much of the cash outstanding rests on survey data. The obvious likelihood such data would systematically under-represent reality is not addressed. But the conclusion is frequently referred to. So I feel it represents a significant weakness in the overall argument.
Privacy is recognized as a concern but left as an open question. Perversely, Edward Snowdon is brought up as evidence that the government does in fact, abuse it's power. But the elimination of cash would give the government far more power and make if far more difficult for Snowdon to escape that power. No realistic limitation on government power is offered.
Reference to germs on money reinforces the impression the discussion of problems with cash is spurious.
There is a much stronger description of negative interest rates and the role of the central bank influencing the economy. Cash constrains the ability of the bank to move the rates significantly below zero. The author believes the bank could set the rate to negative one or two percent now but thinks it would be better for the bank to have the freedom use unlimited negative interest rates. The author believes the government would only be able to shed a small amount of debt. In this section, the author does a much better job of giving a reasonable consideration to contingencies.
The book is filled fascinating contextual observations. Interesting figures about cash circulation. The motivations and effectiveness of recent bank leaders and policies. The guiding philosophy of the federal reserve: an independent central bank run by technocratic central bankers. I hadn't thought of that and I really found it a fascinating observation.
Despite its weaknesses, the book does give a good introduction to issues currently facing the Federal Reserve.
...more

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Aug 14, 2016 Hadrian rated it liked it

Shelves: economics-finance-business, nonfiction

A provocative book which advocates eliminating cash in the form of paper bills, and replacing it entirely with electronic currency -- debit cards and the like.

Rogoff makes multiple arguments in favor of his point, which can almost lead to the point of absurdity (paper cash as a disease vector!) but his most convincing one is how paper currency facilitates crime - money laundering, bribes, tax evasion, purchase of illegal goods, etc.

Dovetailing into this argument is a more technical discussion ...more

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Dec 30, 2016 Rahul rated it really liked it

This book toys with a revolutionary idea that has so far been limited to sporadic economic papers and journals. As we speak, India a country of 1.2 billion claims to have been one of the first such partial experiments in this direction (why partial – we will come on to this later).
Kenneth Rogoff first espoused this idea around 20 years ago in his paper. Over the period of years, he seems to have gained much deeper insight in the penetration of cash in the system while serving as Chief Economist ...more

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Dec 12, 2016 Dan Graser rated it really liked it

While I understand the need for a provocative title, a more accurate name for this volume would be closer to, "Phasing out large cash notes (above $10) as a means to combat their use in crime in tax evasion while simultaneously opening possibilities towards negative interest policy measures as means for macroeconomic stability beyond the Zero Bound." Rogoff is a very informed, provocative, and passionate about his argument and he definitely makes the case for weening ourselves off of large notes ...more

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Dec 07, 2016 Jeremy Clark rated it it was amazing

This book operates on two levels. It is both positive: what the effects of removing physical cash from circulation would be; and normative: we should remove cash. I disagree with the normative argument but I find it a convincing and valuable enumeration of what would result from the removal of cash, particularly in terms of crime, tax evasion, and monetary policy (negative interest rates). I am convinced we will see a policy push for this eventually, whether we welcome it or not. It veers into B ...more

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Feb 07, 2017 Nancy Seamons rated it really liked it

An interesting concept about how cash encourages money laundering, drug running, and several other unlawful acts. A provocative way to solve some of the world's biggest problems.

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About Kenneth S. Rogoff

Kenneth S. Rogoff

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Kenneth Saul "Ken" Rogoff is an American economist and chess Grandmaster. He is the Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Economics at Harvard University.

Books by Kenneth S. Rogoff

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes

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Quotes from The Curse of Cash

“certainly influence the future course of cryptocurrencies, which we take up in chapter 14; governments everywhere are facing the question of how to balance regulation with fostering innovation in this space. Nevertheless, one should have little doubt that governments have all the tools necessary to prevent any alternative transaction media from deeply infiltrating the legal economy on a sustained basis, thereby greatly undermining their value relative to the present-day status of cash.” — 0 likes

“Security is constantly evolving. Some Federal Reserve officials have talked about using a variant of the blockchain methodology pioneered by the cryptocurrency Bitcoin to create payment platforms that have built-in security due to its distributed public ledger verification process. We” — 0 likes

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