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Expert Political Judgement

really liked it 4.00  ·  Rating details ·  39 ratings  ·  7 reviews
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Tetlock first discusses arguments about whe
Published (first published 2005)

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Lee Richardson
Jun 29, 2019 rated it it was amazing
Amazing book! Nowadays, with so many opinions flying around the internet, it's hard to know: Who should we listen to? What are reliable sources of information? Whose predictions should we take seriously? How much uncertainty is these in this prediction? Do the talking heads on TV know more than the rest of us, or is it just entertainment?

To answer these questions, Phil Tetlock records the predictions of hundreds of political experts for many political events, such as the fall of the Soviet Union
Lorenzo Barberis Canonico
Dec 23, 2019 rated it really liked it
Wow, so this is the collection of Tetlock's primary research findings that paved the way for "Superforecasting". I recommend reading the latter first though.

Also, if you've read "Superforecasting" first, don't expect the same writing style for this one because unfortunately academic books are not written in the nicest way. Still, the findings and the methodologies are so impressive: they will make you believe in social science research again.
Jon Norimann
Oct 30, 2020 rated it really liked it
Shelves: economics, philosophy
Interesting book about what kind of measurable predictions and what kind of predictors, that get closest to the truth.
Jul 16, 2014 rated it it was amazing
Expert political judgement is a empirical examination of the ability of experts and non-experts to predict future political events. It reads like no other book I've read before. The author is fantastically self critical, heaping abuse onto his position from imagined detractors and then defending himself from multiple perspectives. Tetlock's ability to see outside himself and question his assumptions turns, what should be a simple and valuable examination, into a deep philosophical and empirical ...more
Estudo neo-positivista que usou métodos sofisticados para chegar a uma conclusão que já deveria ser tautológica: nem sempre os que se consideram (ou são, de fato) experts, emitem opiniões equivocadas em maior ou menor grau. Um malabarismo danado, um livro que se perde num estilo por vezes cínico e irônico que não caberia em escrita acadêmica, por vezes engessado demais para se passar por um livro de divulgação científica.
AbdulRahman عبدالرحمن
May 12, 2015 rated it did not like it
Not as expected. Long-winded and very unstructured. This book was clearly written for Academia. Very few "new" insights, not the general public.
Jeff J.
rated it liked it
Jul 31, 2018
Jan 01, 2019 added it
Lots of statistics on his empirical judgement project.
1) Experts are strikingly bad at making predictions
2) The famous/flashy/bold ones are the worst
3) Foxes > Hedgehogs (Berlin)
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