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A Brief History of the Future

Jacques Attali,

Jeremy Leggatt (Translator)

3.63 · Rating details · 550 ratings · 58 reviews

What will planet Earth be like in 20 years? At mid century? In the year 2100? Prescient and convincing, this book is a must-read for anyone concerned about the future.

Never has the world offered more promise for the future and been more fraught with dangers. In this powerful and sometimes terrifying work, Attali analyzes the past and pinpoints nine distinct periods of huma ...more

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Kindle Edition, 324 pages

Published September 22nd 2011 by Arcade Publishing (first published 2006)

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Jul 13, 2009 Brooks rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Very interesting review of history. The premise is that human civilization continues to march toward greater openness in market/capitalism and in freedom. With the rise of the renaissance, there have been a rise and fall of leading cities in this area. As one falters, another rises - Bruges, Venice, Antwerp, Genoa, Amserdam, London, Boston, New York, and LA. Much of this is based on Turner's work on Great Cities - must be centers of trade, be innovators, and welcome immigrants. With this history ...more

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May 17, 2021 AURORA rated it did not like it · review of another edition

Ok, I read this book and all I can say it is not worth reading, even if you are interested in transhumanism. The first 50% is very simplified history. Author's vision is that there are 3 kinds of power: religious, military and mercenary, and, of course, he is a fan of the latter. The second part is his futuristic speculations of how this mercenary power will take over the globe. He is speaking about the market, technologies, about the violence, ultimate solitude of the individual etc. But all th Ok, I read this book and all I can say it is not worth reading, even if you are interested in transhumanism. The first 50% is very simplified history. Author's vision is that there are 3 kinds of power: religious, military and mercenary, and, of course, he is a fan of the latter. The second part is his futuristic speculations of how this mercenary power will take over the globe. He is speaking about the market, technologies, about the violence, ultimate solitude of the individual etc. But all that is not like predictions, but more like some modelling, while ignoring all the complexity of history, society and technology. So it is more like some kind of manifesto or some political speech for the Davos-like forum.

I read the book because of the quote below that is said to be from the book. It was not in the book, at least not in my copy. There was nothing about so offensive as euthanasia of idiots or similar eugenics, but at the same time the tone of the author's voice was similar and the things he is talking about is probably more cloaked, but still very NWO-conspirative. For example, he is talking about the man-made pandemics, a lot about micro-chips, nano-robotics etc. (he calls all those "nomadic devices", about the gray-goo and blue-goo.

I still leave this citation here, to check up later:
"In the future it will be a question of finding a way to reduce the population. We will start with the old man, because once he is over 60-65 years old, man lives longer than he produces and it costs society dearly.
Then the weak and then the useless who do not contribute anything to society because there will be more and more, and especially finally the stupid.
Euthanasia directed at these groups; euthanasia must be an essential instrument of our future societies, in all cases.
Of course, we will not be able to execute people or organize camps. We will get rid of them by making them believe that it is for their own good.
Too large a population, and for the most part unnecessary, is something economically too expensive. Socially, it is also much better for the human machine to stop abruptly rather than gradually deteriorate.
We won’t be able to pass intelligence tests on millions and millions of people, you can imagine!
We will find something or cause it; a pandemic that targets certain people, a real economic crisis or not, a virus that will affect the old or the elderly, it does not matter, the weak and the fearful will succumb.
The stupid will believe it and ask to be treated. We will have taken care of having planned the treatment, a treatment that will be the solution.
The selection of idiots will therefore be done by itself: they will go to the slaughterhouse alone.“ ...more

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Aug 11, 2020 Terry Quirke rated it liked it · review of another edition

The book starts with a recap of human history, focusing on the history of capitalism and identifying trends and then extrapolates these trends from the early 1300s all the way through to 100 years into the future.

The style of presentation is like a lecture, with sentences of prediction tied in with history and data to support the premise. Dealing with a huge topic here so the points are made from a high level, there's no getting down into the weeds with this.

Attalli sees capitalism running rampa ...more

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Dec 15, 2017 Arne rated it it was ok · review of another edition

The next 100 years (Friedman) >>

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Aug 03, 2013 Allan Dyen-Shapiro rated it really liked it · review of another edition

This book was recommended to me by a political scientist friend. Starting with a recap of human history, focusing on the history of capitalism, it identifies trends and extrapolates these trends 100 years in the future. Predicted is an age in which the (American) empire of predatory capitalism extends to the point of near destruction of the world, followed by a time of many different wars and collapse, followed by a time in which the hell of unfettered markets and hatreds leads nongovernmental o This book was recommended to me by a political scientist friend. Starting with a recap of human history, focusing on the history of capitalism, it identifies trends and extrapolates these trends 100 years in the future. Predicted is an age in which the (American) empire of predatory capitalism extends to the point of near destruction of the world, followed by a time of many different wars and collapse, followed by a time in which the hell of unfettered markets and hatreds leads nongovernmental organizations (relational enterprises) to bring about a world based on altruism and mutual caring.

The style is lecture: one sentence after another of future prediction, interrupted only occasionally by historical tidbits and data meant to support the point. The range is global--the entire world is encompassed.

My major problem with Attali's predictions is his timeline. He pegs 2050 as the time when unfettered markets will lead the world to economic collapse. He mentions ecological devastation, and does indeed impart it's worsening to capitalism entities--actually "nomadic" entities--globalized capitalism that owes allegiance to no one state, but he doesn't give it enough weight. We have passed many turning points on global environmental destruction. The world doesn't have until 2050. His prediction that the US and Europe will look like today's Africa as they collapse is probably correct, but it's too delayed. If ocean acidification collapses coral reef ecosystems--that's the end of Thailand and the Philippines as viable countries. Sea level rise will devastate Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc. Desertification will lead to even further chaos in much of Africa. And that's just scratching the surface.

We've already had financial meltdown, and the world didn't collapse. The surveillance state is here, but I don't feel I'm living in an Orwellian dystopia. Piracy, Islamic fundamentalism--all these things are happening. But in my eyes, the environmental issues will be the most disruptive.

As for whether humans will see their folly, hmm... Not really sure.

Anyway, the book was quite interesting and worth reading. I don't think any of the individual ideas were shocking, but the totality of the picture painted is a worthy jumping off point for discussion. ...more

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May 03, 2015 D.L. Morrese rated it liked it · review of another edition

This highly speculative tale of things to come begins with a brief overview of where we've been. I was put off by an obvious error on page 7 which states that all primates other than Homo sapiens sapiens vanished from Earth 30,000 years ago. Although some species of apes, monkeys, and lemurs are endangered, many are still with us, so obviously they did not vanish. The mistake may have been due to a translation error (from the original French) because the word 'primate' is used several times in p This highly speculative tale of things to come begins with a brief overview of where we've been. I was put off by an obvious error on page 7 which states that all primates other than Homo sapiens sapiens vanished from Earth 30,000 years ago. Although some species of apes, monkeys, and lemurs are endangered, many are still with us, so obviously they did not vanish. The mistake may have been due to a translation error (from the original French) because the word 'primate' is used several times in places in which 'human' would have been a better choice. There were other questionable word choices including 'freedom', 'democracy', and 'fair' in the early pages of this book. From there it goes on to relate various paths humanity might take...often to extremes (actually to the point of falling off a metaphorical cliff). Some I thought fairly plausible...up to a point, but others seemed extremely unlikely to me. Still, they provide warnings of things to avoid. One that did make me pause was the prediction that public services might, in the near future, be privatized, effectively leaving nation states impotent to mitigate the excesses of profit-seeking corporations. What we think of as public services today (social security, unemployment protection, education, health care, workplace safety, food and drug standards, even law enforcement and courts) would be taken over by profit-seeking private insurance companies that would monitor everything (really EVERYTHING) people do and adjust their premiums accordingly. Possible, but I have to believe that we'll be wise enough to avoid such a dystopian future (which sounds to me something like cutthroat corporate feudalism). The final chapter is utopian, in which people suddenly and inexplicably become rational and altruistic. That would be nice, but it doesn't explain how we get there from here, especially considering the dire predictions it makes earlier.
As a cautionary tale, this book has value. As a prediction of the future, not so much. I have no doubt that humanity will face many of the challenges this book describes, and no doubt we'll handle some of them better than others, but I have to believe that we will handle them before they lead to the extreme outcomes described here. ...more

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Oct 19, 2009 Fumi rated it really liked it · review of another edition

The author goes all out in his futurist view in this book, pretty brave for a person with many responsibilities and reputation to consider. I like his approach in leading you from the basics of history, so you can naturally integrate the future as a part of the continual history.
It takes the myth out of futurism, which I think is the point of this book.
I do think he's a bit romantic in the things he choose to feature, although his history lesson is so matter-of-fact. There is a human-ness about ...more

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Feb 25, 2021 Jerry Wall rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Rare times of finding a book that addresses your questions and reinforces your answers or adds new answers are what Monsieur Attali is about.
As we move inexorably into our future whatever it may be, it is better to have someone thinking of
better results. l This is Jacques Attali.
. . . each of the three dominant powers (religious, military, and mercantile) controls wealth. p. 2
Eating life to evade death, an instinct that still prevails today. p. 7
30,000 years ago, certain humans begin to dream o ...more

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Jun 11, 2018 Kan Yilmaz rated it liked it · review of another edition

tl;dr

The book hypothesizes that "merchant order" went through nine successive geographical "cores" associated with a characteristic technology. The core cities were:

Bruges with the central rudder stock
Venice with the caravel
Antwerp with printing
Genoa and accounting
Amsterdam with the fluyt
London and the steam engine
Boston and the automobiles
New York City with the electricity
Los Angeles and the microchip

He guesses that next core city will still be in California perhaps San Diego.

The hyperempire, tl;dr

The book hypothesizes that "merchant order" went through nine successive geographical "cores" associated with a characteristic technology. The core cities were:

Bruges with the central rudder stock
Venice with the caravel
Antwerp with printing
Genoa and accounting
Amsterdam with the fluyt
London and the steam engine
Boston and the automobiles
New York City with the electricity
Los Angeles and the microchip

He guesses that next core city will still be in California perhaps San Diego.

The hyperempire, the hyperconflict and hyperdemocracy—will take over the world one after the other.

He estimates before the 9th form US Empire will collapse which would take around 2035. Financially and politically exhausted, like other empires before it, the US will cease to rule the world. This doesn’t mean US not exists. It means it won’’t be the Empire it is today. Other countries will have similar powers to US such as Brazil, Mexico, China, India, Russia, the European Union, Egypt and Nigeria. The world will be polycentric

This polycentric world will consume worlds resources in such a sense to please the markets that they’ll destroy worlds ecology. American Capitalism in it’s highest form in all countries will create fortunes and extreme poverty. Money will trample everything in its path, including even the United States, which it will destroy gradually. Having become the sole law controlling the world, the market will establish what he calls it a hyperempire, creating both unfathomable wealth and suffering on a global scale, fortunes as well as extreme poverty; nature will be exploited and despoiled in a systematic matter; everything will be privatized, including the army, the police and the judicial system. Terrorist factions and pirates will roam the globe. He calls such a war a hyperconflict.

He guesses that if the world still continues after this point, there will be organisations and companies, cultures and habits which are more eco-friendly. He says that hyperdemocracy, a superior method of organizing mankind, will triumph around 2060, and, as the ultimate expression of freedom, it will become the driving force for history. Hyperdemocracy. A new economy, called a relational economy, producing non-profit services, will compete with the market before eliminating it, just as the market put an end to feudalism a few centuries ago. During this period, the market and democracy, which are not as distant as they are believed to be in the sense they are understood today, will become outdated concepts, vague memories. ...more

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Oct 13, 2015 Jeremy rated it it was ok · review of another edition

I bought this book on a whim a year ago, having spied it on the shelves of one of my favourite bookstores, Diabolik. I thought I’d better read it before the future arrived, not realizing that it had been published in 2006! I’ve long been a sucker for any kind of media that attempted to forecast what the future may be like. We do seem to be on the cusp of massive changes on this planet, but just what will they be? Will it is be dystopia or utopia for humanity? Typically the future will probably b I bought this book on a whim a year ago, having spied it on the shelves of one of my favourite bookstores, Diabolik. I thought I’d better read it before the future arrived, not realizing that it had been published in 2006! I’ve long been a sucker for any kind of media that attempted to forecast what the future may be like. We do seem to be on the cusp of massive changes on this planet, but just what will they be? Will it is be dystopia or utopia for humanity? Typically the future will probably be somewhere in-between these two extremes. When you pick up a book entitled A Brief History of the Future the expectation is that it will have at least some feasible answers. After all, according to the blurb on the back of the book Attali had previously predicted the financial rise of Asia, the advent of what he refers to as ‘nomadic technologies’ and the GFC. I approached this book with great enthusiasm, but unfortunately left it feeling underwhelmed and entertaining the thought that I would make a better futurist than the likes of Attali.

Attali notes in his forward that the shape of our future is being set by events and choices that we are making in the present; therefore logically past events have always set the future in motion. With this in mind he then proceeds with a potted history of the past, including when life itself emerged from the oceans and that momentous time when our ancestors first began to walk upright. This chapter reads like a highly generalized and accelerated version of prehistory, which unfortunately doesn’t give the reader much confidence in what will follow. There are also some glaring flaws, although they may well be caused by a fault in translation (Attali is French). Attali refers to the likes of Homo ergaster and Homo heidelbergensis (and others) as primates, when I’m certain the correct term is hominids. Also some assertions are already dated, with Attali claiming that “All these primates - neighbors but not of kin - coexist without interbreeding.” In recent years a great deal of evidence has emerged that interbreeding between some hominids was occurring. These criticisms are perhaps unfair, however much more glaring is the total lack of referencing throughout this and the following chapter. Attali makes claim after claim regarding the lives and practices of early humans without citing any kind of reliable sources. Is it really “doubtless” that cannibalism began 300,000 years ago? And that around 160,000 years ago slavery began? What discoveries or research led to these notions? Are we just meant to take his word for it? (like I ask you to take mine?).

The long chapter entitled ‘A Brief History of Capitalism’ is far more coherent and persuasive, despite its lack of citations. Attali details the history of what he refers to as the mercantile order and suggests that as the mercantile order evolved over the centuries it fostered more and more individual freedoms and therefore became an engine of democracy. Attali’s principal argument focuses on the nine ‘cores’ of the mercantile order that have been at the forefront of capitalism over the centuries - Bruges, Venice, Genoa, Antwerp, Amsterdam, London, Boston, New York and currently Los Angeles. This long chapter leads to, almost inevitably, a chapter entitled ‘The End of the American Empire’. Logically the evolution of capitalism over the centuries points to an inevitable decline in the dominant core, something that has happened again and again; mostly caused by internal dysfunctions, mainly financial, and challenges from the outside. Attali’s arguments are persuasive simply because it is all too easy to see past trends emerge again. He argues that as soon as post 2030 the “ninth form will have lived its day” and that America could become a Scandinavian style social democracy or a dictatorship. Well, we’ll see!

As to what comes next Attali points to three possible ‘waves of the future’ for this century: planetary empire, planetary war and planetary democracy. While it is too complex to adequately sum up how and why each wave could be possible there are a number of key points for each worth noting. Planetary empire involves a possible decoupling of the mercantile order from a central city core, becoming a roaming entity mostly via the borderless world wide web. Planetary war all too ominously involves multiple scenarios ranging from endless minor conflicts to all out war involving what he calls ‘pirate’ entities taking it up to the major powers. ISIS is certainly shaping up to be such an entity. Planetary democracy is, rather optimistically, the inevitable endgame for the century. While some of his arguments for this third wave are sound, some are also are also dubious. Attali cites the emergence of ‘vanguard players’, or ‘trans-humans’; altruistic citizens that will “...run relational enterprises in which profit will be no more than a hindrance, not a final goal.” The cynic in me can’t help but consider that this viewpoint is naively Utopian and that humanity will not be able to curb its self destructive impulses.

A Brief History of the Future is a moderately interesting book with some compelling ideas. Ultimately, however, the book is flawed, particularly the chapters that deal with the future, which simply make too many assumptions. It’s a tough business this futurism, but in a strange way Attali makes it appear that anyone with some understanding of history and capitalism could give it a go. I’m certainly ready and willing. I have a reasonable knowledge of emergent technologies and have a pretty good understanding of history and current events. Hey - I’m a futurist! Personally I believe that certain emergent technologies could completely alter society and what it is to be human, even more so than current computer technology coupled with the internet. If genuine AI technology is developed, possibly coupled with quantum computing, then that would be a huge game changer. If longevity drugs, now entering an exciting research and development phase, come to fruition, then society and the economy will be challenged with significant changes that have never been seen before. These three technologies (five actually - but don’t get me started on robotics and 3D printing) were touched on only briefly by Attali, leaving me to think that his vision of the future is only part of the possible story at best. ...more

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Feb 05, 2019 Cario Lam rated it liked it

The author makes some bold predictions for the future of humanity between present day, the early 21st century to the end of it. He offers both extremes, the pessimistic and optimistic. The best and worse case scenarios. I like how this work transcends nation states and political parties. The only reason I didn't give him another star was because he attempted to tackle an extremely complex topic and didn't provide enough details in the examples that he did present. ...more

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Aug 09, 2020 Agli Nanaj rated it liked it · review of another edition

Shelves: non-fiction

Fascinating books, and effectively espouses a philosophical opinion about nomadization. This idea stems from modern societies' tendency for computer jobs going out from the typical workplace, vlogging, and free reign squatting. The ideas of the new humanity that Attali describes are similar indeed to Deleuze's "dividual". Nevertheless, an excellent work for people who want to peer into the geopolitical and economic future of our planet. ...more

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May 23, 2020 David Bradshaw rated it liked it · review of another edition

Shelves: history, political, society

easier to foresee the dangers ahead - pirates, nihilists, insurance companies surveilling everyone and everything - market rule -

a sweeping romp through the past -

an interesting nugget - the oil cartel of the 7 sisters raising the price of gas - leading to decline in auto/truck manufacture - as a potential trigger to the great depression -

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Mar 31, 2019 Weiching Liu rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

A very interesting and thought provoking read. The narrative on the history is already well worth the read. There are some controversy on the future prediction, and maybe that's because it's not too bright. Still, most scenario aren't that inconceivable. ...more

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Feb 13, 2020 Budd Margolis rated it liked it · review of another edition

One of the best encapsulated human history briefs I have seen. The future? Who knows but a few years after it has been written makes some errors obvious. But thought-provoking and at times fascinating.

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Oct 21, 2020 Richard Domann rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Wow

Scary but worth reading and thinking about. Particularly in light of today’s news and social climate. Our planet being a mix of societies and individual differences will be challenged moving forward.

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Aug 21, 2019 Reynaldo Sandoval rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Insightful with some limitations. Heavy tone

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Apr 22, 2020 Jamad rated it it was ok · review of another edition

Some interesting ideas but too many assumptions without backup for me.

Interesting to read about the future during a pandemic shutdown.

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Nov 28, 2016 Nancy rated it it was ok · review of another edition

Shelves: 2016-read

With precious regard for the natural environment in any scenario. Waffly.

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May 05, 2019 Cornel Radu rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

The author must have been a social engineer or being part of the people in the know. Giving the fact that the book was written in 2006, and some of his prophecies have come to past (immigrants crisis), some of his predictions have yet to happen. It is understandable since he was heading international organizations (like European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ) , his social theory prospects that he might have a better insight into the macro societal trends. His predictions might not com ...more

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Aug 09, 2011 J Roberts rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Shelves: politics

The first portion of this book covers the historic rise and fall of previous economic empires. To be honest, it does not start out promising. Perhaps it was due to the fact that I knew most of the information already. At least it was a nice refresher on the past.

However, the author uses this beginning to offer a base for his theory. As in all of the future books, the information presented is a best guess of what may happen. The only problem here is that I have, after reading hundreds of current ...more

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Jul 21, 2015 Tariq Mahmood rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Shelves: economy, corporations, history, europe

A book which captures the evolution of the market city cultures, from its beginning to its possible future state. I found the argument very convincing as Jacques paints a picture based on core values aligning together to create powerfully and manipulative cultures which have dominated the world at various times. Currently Los Angles is the market leader but it's time at the top is long overdue for another culture to take its place. Jacques can see some of the values receding in Los Angles and pr ...more

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Jun 14, 2012 Kirstin Steele rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

A great overview of the trends of history since homo sapiens became the dominant primate species, especially economic history. Attali continues following the wave to the end of the 21st century, yet manages to personalize by naming some of the transhumans whom he believes will help the species survive and evolve. I recognized myself as one of the sedentaries (vs. a nomad) he describes. I wonder if the Wall Street types respect his views of the market shifts or if they think he's a New Age nut. M ...more

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Feb 28, 2014 Howard rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

Recommended to Howard by: Dan Sullivan

One will probably never think about the future the same way again after reading this book. That is neither a good thing or a bad thing - the point being that each one of us has a preconceived notion about what the future looks like, and this book challenges one to think hard about those preconceptions and their foundations in our past and what we've accepted and rejected - and most importantly, why we've accepted or rejected certain notions.

This book has a strong likelihood of making the reader ...more

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Feb 03, 2020 Brian Cham rated it liked it · review of another edition

Shelves: hundred-book-reading-challenge-2020

I thought this book was interesting. Attali covers a lot of topics and has a lot of thoughts. It's actually interesting that it was written in the mid-2000s and yet some of his predictions are already true. For example, he wrote about miniaturised and embedded technologies with "hypersurveillance". It is also funny how he wrote about purely cyber-professions in a future digital market and nowadays we can see things like professional YouTubers. I would have given this a higher rating but some of ...more

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Apr 05, 2009 Marian marked it as to-read · review of another edition

Has Jacques Attali's "Une breve histoire de l'Avenir" not yet been translated to English?? On France24.com TV I keep seeing Attali himself quoting long excerpts from it. Fascinating. But I also see another author already is using the same title in English: "A Brief History of the Future." That could make it tough. ...more

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Jul 12, 2012 Justin rated it it was ok · review of another edition

Shelves: business, opinion

The English language translation was enjoyable. The first half that is, the part concerning the past history of the planet. Accurate? Insightful? Yes.

The second half of the book, or the predicitions of the future, are tedious and at times beyond accurate scope. Didn't finish this second half.

Read the first half to two-thirds. Let me know what you think. ...more

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Mar 12, 2011 Johan rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

Shelves: french-books

Important book, everyone should be aware of the concepts explained, to understand the pigger picture and to infuence (in our own small way) the direction of the future and the fate of those around us.

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Sep 28, 2012 John rated it really liked it · review of another edition

C'est tres interessant. He traces the rise and fall of global "centres" across the centuries - where diversity, education, innovation, and creativity have flourished and then collapsed. The cycles continue. The future may or may not be predictable, but Attali's view is compelling. ...more

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Dec 03, 2015 Giorgio Giuliani rated it really liked it · review of another edition

As every book of this type it is full of really strange outcomes for our future. Anyway the exercise is really complicated thus I totally understand the point.

Being written in 2008 something should be already happened and parts of what he predicts is incredibly close to our reality. Chapeau

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About Jacques Attali

Jacques Attali

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Jacques Attali is a French economist and scholar. From 1981 to 1991, he was an advisor to President François Mitterrand. He subsequently cast doubt on Mitterrand's past as a mid-level Vichy government functionary in his retrospective of Mitterrand's career, C'était François Mitterrand, published in 2005.

In April 1991 he became the first President of the London-based European Bank for Reconstructio ...more

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“In the future, a part of this class - individuals particularly sensitive to this question of the future - will realize that their happiness depends on that of others, that the human species can only survive united and pacific. They will cease to belong to the mercantile innovative class, and refuse to put themselves at the service of pirates. They will become what I call transhumans (who will give birth to a new order of abundance). ” — 7 likes

“En 1947, la pile électrique et le transistor, innovations capitales, rendent portables la radio et le tourne-disque.
Révolution majeure, car elles permettent au jeunes de danser hors des bals, donc hors de la présence des parents, libérant la sexualité, ouvrant à toutes nouvelles musiques, du jazz au rock, annonçant l'entrée des jeunes dans l'univers de la consommation, du désir, de la révolte.” — 3 likes

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