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Deep Risk: How History Informs Portfolio Design
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Deep Risk: How History Informs Portfolio Design

4.24  ·  Rating details ·  160 ratings  ·  11 reviews
Deep risk: How History informs Portfolio Design is the third installment in the investing for adults series. this series is not for novices. This booklet takes portfolio design beyond the familiar “black box” mean-variance framework. Most importantly, the short-term volatility of financial assets, commonly measured as standard deviation, is a highly imperfect measure of th ...more
Kindle Edition, 57 pages
Published August 28th 2013 (first published August 13th 2013)
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Ian Robertson
Jan 29, 2014 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
This is the third installment in Bernstein’s series of monographs for experienced investors. Looking back at a century of economic and financial data, Bernstein identifies four deep risks: inflation, deflation, confiscation, and devastation. These risks are different from the shorter term volatility of markets; they are the unlikely risks that traditional investors and ordinary folk will not recover from. In particular, he feels the Weimar Republic's hyperinflation is instructive - recall the im ...more
Joseph
Nov 07, 2017 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Great little book that could be helpful for lots of investors particularly during bear markets.
Bob
Oct 02, 2013 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
Fantastic look at the what the difference is between short-term or shallow risk and long-term or deep risk of various types of investments and their causes (both economic and social). Most investors focus on shallow risk when making investment decisions, but should be more concerned with deep risk, especially when they are young and just beginning to save. Older savers, who are near retirement face the more difficult decision on how much to invest in shallow risk investments that tend to have a ...more
Brad Felix
An interesting portfolio theory concept which addresses real risk, not measures of price variation (standard deviation) that have been the cornerstone of portfolio theory since the 1970s. The concept is simple - in the long-run your portfolio needs to protect you from four key risks: inflation, deflation, confiscation, and devastation. Given different probabilities of these events, you can position your portfolio appropriately with the correct weighting of specific asset classes. In the modern w ...more
Chris
Mar 28, 2015 rated it it was amazing  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: investment-books
Some of the content appears in his other works - self-plagiarism is not one of this author's concerns. A good summary of what risk in investing really means especially from a long run historical perspective and in the light of other life risks. Leads to a more thoughtful asset allocation (though one with lower expected returns of course as one should be rewarded (and will be rewarded for intelligent risk) for risk in investing).
Douglas Eu
Jan 03, 2015 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
Pro: a good discussion of "shallow risk" vs "deep risk"

Con: only saw risk in the sense of loss - or in other words only looking at the negative aspect - without considering the positive aspect best remembered in that famous golf expression "no risk, no reward".
Tom Plaskon
This small book illustrates the difference between shallow and deep risk and how this informs portfolio design for retail investors.
Todd
Mar 23, 2015 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
Shelves: finance
Another in Bernstein's "investing for adults" series. Explains deep risk vs shallow risk. Good read especially if you are a DIY investor or have a large portfolio.
Niniane Wang
Mar 29, 2014 rated it really liked it  ·  review of another edition
Concise book that teaches how to evaluate portfolio risk in the face of inflation, deflation, taxes, war. Takes only a few hours to read. I found it instructive.
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William J. Bernstein is an American financial theorist and neurologist. His research is in the field of modern portfolio theory and he has published books for individual investors who wish to manage their own equity portfolios. He lives in Portland, Oregon.