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When Prophecy Fails: A Social and Psychological Study of a Modern Group that Predicted the Destruction of the World

Leon Festinger,

Henry W. Riecken

Stanley Schachter

3.87 · Rating details · 572 ratings · 74 reviews

In 1954 Leon Festinger, a brilliant young experimental social psychologist in the process of outlining a new theory of human behavior - the theory of cognitive dissonance - and his colleagues infiltrated a cult who believed the end of the world was only months away. How would these people feel when their prophecy remained unfulfilled? Would they admit the error of their In 1954 Leon Festinger, a brilliant young experimental social psychologist in the process of outlining a new theory of human behavior - the theory of cognitive dissonance - and his colleagues infiltrated a cult who believed the end of the world was only months away. How would these people feel when their prophecy remained unfulfilled? Would they admit the error of their prediction, or would they readjust their reality to make sense of the new circumstances?

"We've all experienced the futility of trying to change a strong conviction, especially if the convinced person has some investment in his belief. We're familiar with the variety of ingenious defenses with which people protect their convictions, managing to keep them unscathed thru the most devastating attacks. But human resourcefulness goes beyond simply protecting a belief. Suppose an individual believes something with a whole heart; suppose further a commitment to this belief, suppose irrevocable actions have been taken because of it; finally, suppose evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that the belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of such beliefs than ever before. Indeed, s/he may even show a new fervor about convincing and converting others to this view. How and why does such a response to contradictory evidence come about? This is the question on which this book focuses. We hope that, by the end of the volume, we will have provided an adequate answer to the question, an answer documented by data."

When Prophecy Fails is a classic text in social psychology authored by L. Festinger, H. Riecken and S. Schachter. It chronicles the experience of a UFO cult that believed the end of the world was at hand. In effect, it's a sociopsychological study of a modern group that predicted the destruction of the world & the adjustments made when the prediction failed to materialize.

"The authors have done something as laudable as it is unusual for social psychologists. They espied a fleeting social movement important to a line of research they were interested in and took after it. They recruited a team of observers, joined the movement & watched it from within under great difficulties until its crisis came and went. Their report is of interest as much for the method as for the substance."--Everett C. Hughes, The American Journal of Sociology. ...more

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Paperback, 264 pages

Published January 1st 1964 by Torchbooks/Harper & Row (NY) (first published 1956)

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Feb 07, 2013 T-bone rated it did not like it

I love cults. I have belonged to many and hope to join more in the future. Cults are a great way to meet new people. So imagine my disgust when I realized this book was not about a cult, but about a bunch of delusional psychologists who infiltrate a perfectly rational doomsday group so they can peddle their ludicrous "research" as a legitimate contribution to learning. I don't mind psychologists when they confine themselves to wondering why they themselves are crazy, but I do not abide them ...more

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Feb 01, 2018 Mike rated it really liked it

Recommended to Mike by: Mark

Shelves: failed-visionary-cults, the-50s

This is an account of a small and relatively benign mid-century millenarian cult in Chicago. They believed that the world would end in a great flood on December 21st, 1954, and that they would be rescued by a spaceship- but what happens after the leaders prophecy fails to come true? It turns out that while disconfirmation of the prophecy causes some members of the group to abandon their convictions, the convictions of others are strengthened- as is their desire to proselytize.

One of the authors
This is an account of a small and relatively benign mid-century millenarian cult in Chicago. They believed that the world would end in a great flood on December 21st, 1954, and that they would be rescued by a spaceship- but what happens after the leader’s prophecy fails to come true? It turns out that while disconfirmation of the prophecy causes some members of the group to abandon their convictions, the convictions of others are strengthened- as is their desire to proselytize.

One of the authors is Leon Festinger, who developed the theory of cognitive dissonance. It occurred to me as I read that the experience of dissonance, as far as I understand it, is not necessarily a bad thing; if you're aware of experiencing it (and I guess that's the tricky part), it can work as a sort of alarm bell that lets you know things aren't lining up, that something's not right. You believed that the world was going to end on a certain date- fair enough, we've all been wrong before- but now that the date has passed and the world hasn't ended, how are you going to choose to interpret that? Are you even going to be conscious of making a choice?

In addition, there are some complicating factors. First of all, remember, you told everyone at the office that you believed the world was ending. Going to be hard to look those people in the eye now. Not to mention that in the age of social media, you've probably already told everyone on Facebook and Goodreads, as well. Going to be a lot of comments with laughing emojis when you log in again, aren't there? Maybe you ended a relationship. Maybe you quit your job. Maybe you donated all your money to the cult. And furthermore, it makes sense to assume that this belief satisfied some personal need or longing you had- you were tired of this world of injustice and suffering, maybe, and you believed you'd been chosen to be rescued from it. That must have been a good feeling. Besides, look how much you've given up for that belief already- was that all for nothing, a fantasy?

Your unconscious mind isn't going to let you give up this kind of conviction without a fight.

And Festinger and his co-writers show us how easy it can be to rationalize: the aliens gave us a second chance; we got the date wrong, turns out the flood is next year, we need to prepare even harder now; something we did helped to avert the flood, which means this is actually a miracle. It's not being aware of dissonance that gets us into trouble, but rather the unconscious desire for what the authors call consonance, however we can get it.

While this is a case study, it's pleasurable to read; a bit novelistic, empathetic while at the same time finding some humor in what really is an absurd situation. Some other reviewers have suggested that the integrity of this study is compromised because the authors infiltrated the cult...and heck, for all I know they're right. But I am not a scientist, sociologist, psychologist or any combination of those things, so I did not trouble myself with the integrity of the study; I was just kind of amused that it reached the point where the cult seemed to be composed of about an equal number of observers/cult members, without any apparent suspicion or violent reprisal on the part of the latter.

Mrs. Armstrong's response was immediate and almost frightening in its initial ambiguity. "You've been sent", she declared. "They sent you." Fortunately for our observer's poise, Mrs. Armstrong went on to explain that "they" referred to the Guardians or people from outer space who were watching over the chosen on earth and guiding their actions.

The reader might start to wonder what kind of cult these people are running here, anyway. They should be ashamed of themselves. This is not exactly the Manson family.

But of course that's a good thing. These are relatively innocent people, lost souls searching for meaning. When I first read this book, however, a couple of years ago, I think I drew some very self-serving and probably snobby conclusions from it. The UFO angle makes that easy to do, both because it sounds kooky and because it foreshadows the far less benign Heaven's Gate cult of the 1990s. Those poor saps who get drawn into things like this, I remember thinking.

But in fact, there's probably a lesson in this for the great majority of us. What's lingered for me is the simple idea that it is just very, very difficult to change your mind, to accept that you were wrong and to learn something from it. When a narrative sweeps across a community or a country, it's sometimes difficult to even remember, as you accept the narrative, that you're making a choice about how you're going to understand what's happened. Maybe the first step is to remember that it's a choice. ...more

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Jan 01, 2019 Ill D rated it it was ok

Recommends it for: Wannabe Gentlemen and Scholars

Shelves: reviewed

In my very last year of college I decided to pursue a minor in religious studies. Not realizing how completely worthless it was, I took multiple classes concerning all sorts of religious phenomena. While some were interesting (Religions of India was great) others not so much (Jewish messianic movements was surprisingly boring.) In either case much like the seminal Mircia Eliade (who I found to be mind-mindbogglingly overrated) Leon Festinger's When Prophesy Fails was most usually muttered in the In my very last year of college I decided to pursue a minor in religious studies. Not realizing how completely worthless it was, I took multiple classes concerning all sorts of religious phenomena. While some were interesting (Religions of India was great) others not so much (Jewish messianic movements was surprisingly boring.) In either case much like the seminal Mircia Eliade (who I found to be mind-mindbogglingly overrated) Leon Festinger's When Prophesy Fails was most usually muttered in the same breath or at least the same paragraph as the aforementioned by professors of all stripes.

Almost a decade later, with half the globe traveled, and multiple false starts under my belt, I finally ~~read~~ trudged through Festinger's prophesy about a doomed prophesy gone wrong.

Just like Eliade and his work I seriously have no idea why this piece of crap deserves the accolades it does. From a complete lack methodology, except a rubric set out at the beginning which conveniently matches the researchers future conclusions, to some highly questionable and irritatingly opaque actions made by the researchers/observers within, the only prophesy that failed here was that this book would live up to its high praise. Oh boy.

If that wasn't frustrating enough the vast majority of the book reduces to a boring record of the stupidity within. Since all names were changed to protect the not-so-innocent, basically the book embodies a mind numbing catalogue of... Peggy Sue got this dumb revelation, John Smith showed up and said this, and so on and so on and so forth. Without the real names, and places, and dates within we just get a series of highly generic records of dumb people believing in dumb shit. Which isn't much too different from the average day but for some reason this book has some super-duper status in the religious studies departments.

Perhaps most damning of all is the methodological contamination within. Since the researchers planted their grad-student-pretend-believers into the mix the experiment became unflinchingly distorted from the get go. This only gets worse as future plants and their appearances/actions basically confirm the dumb-dumb leaders belief. Ruining the experiment at best and partaking in academic fraud at worst, everything is pretty much wrong here.

Low on analysis and high on stupid details, this tale of a UFO cult gone wrong was damned from the beginning.

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Feb 25, 2012 Chad Kettner rated it really liked it

Shelves: religion, science

In 1954 Leon Festinger, an experimental social psychologist, invented and tested the theory of cognitive dissonance. "Cognitive Dissonance" is today a recognized term for having a state of mind which seeks to deny an inconvenient truth - perhaps someone with a smoking habit denies the health risks of smoking, or someone with a gambling habit denies their overall losses, or whatever else. In Festinger's original study, "When Prophecy Fails", he discusses a cult who denies the continued failures In 1954 Leon Festinger, an experimental social psychologist, invented and tested the theory of cognitive dissonance. "Cognitive Dissonance" is today a recognized term for having a state of mind which seeks to deny an inconvenient truth - perhaps someone with a smoking habit denies the health risks of smoking, or someone with a gambling habit denies their overall losses, or whatever else. In Festinger's original study, "When Prophecy Fails", he discusses a cult who denies the continued failures of their prophecies that Jesus would return to earth on a flying saucer.

The study is quite clinical in nature, and therefore a bit slow throughout - but when it comes to driving home the point of cognitive dissonance it does an excellent job. The daily meetings of the deluded group were infiltrated by research students assigned by Festinger. The book records the students' observations - the prophecies that were made and the responses to the failures. The refusal to acknowledge the disappointment at Jesus' non-arrival (even in the midst of specific dates being passed by) and the world's continued existence gave rise to the term 'cognitive dissonance'.

Festinger points out the parallels with the Millerites from the 1840s, a much larger group whose End Times prophecy failed - but instead of acknowledging they were wrong, the prophecies were simply explained away and gave rise to the Seventh-day Adventist church. Festinger's core argument is that when nearly everything is invested in the hopes of a prophecy - even a blatant failure gives rise to new hopes and new interpretations - and larger cases of cognitive dissonance. As one character from the cult described in the book said during the study: "I've had to go a long way. I've given up just about everything. I've cut every tie: I've burned every bridge. I've turned my back on the world. I can't afford to doubt. I have to believe. And there isn't any other truth" (pg. 170).

It's important to point out that Festinger doesn't mock or make fun of the study group in any way - even though their beliefs are beyond laughable (Jesus was going to come on a space ship!). Instead, Festinger uses it as a touching account of what can happen to ordinary people under extraordinary circumstances, and clearly empathizes with the struggles the group endured for their failed beliefs. ...more

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Feb 19, 2009 Jonathan rated it really liked it

On oft repeated chestnut in the perpetual debate between Christianity and its non-believers goes something like this: There are three possibilities about Jesus and/or the Apostles or Early Christians. They were either madmen, liars or telling the truth. Each of the former possibilities is then addressed with what might not be terrible arguments and, thus discounted, the third branch of the argument is arrived at as being true. I have never heard the previous two possibilities adequately On oft repeated chestnut in the perpetual debate between Christianity and its non-believers goes something like this: There are three possibilities about Jesus and/or the Apostles or Early Christians. They were either madmen, liars or telling the truth. Each of the former possibilities is then addressed with what might not be terrible arguments and, thus discounted, the third branch of the argument is arrived at as being true. I have never heard the previous two possibilities adequately dismissed, but the real issue with the argument, its real flaccidness, is that it is a false trichotomy. Humans are not either mad, liars or truth tellers - they slide effortlessly between the three states often within the span of single sentence, act or feeling. But most importantly, the argument fails to address the most complicating of factors: madness, lies and truth may manifest in a social group without any single person being obviously responsible for any of them. It is this phenomenon which makes "When Prophecy Fails" most interesting, since it describes the rise and counter-intuitive climax (after a prophesied global flood fails to occur) of a real UFO Cult in the Great Lakes area around the 1950s. The purpose of the work was originally scholarly - the authors wished to study whether disconfirmation - a shocking, undeniable reality which invalidates the beliefs of a group of people, can actually increase the fervor with which the believers prosylatize others into their belief system, as seems to be the case from several historical examples sited in the introduction (most notably the Millerites). Whether the observations of the authors, who infiltrated the cult by posing as believers, bear out this conclusion is of secondary importance (although the argument is good that they do, so far as these things can be born out). The real meat of this book is the fascinating insight it gives into group madness. We see the cult develop from a band of mystics and Scientologist housewives into a coherent, self deluding movement. For those into this kind of thing, the book also provides insight into the connections between Theosophy, Dianetics/Scientology, the 1950's UFO phenomenon, and the New Age Movement which are also fascinating. I recommend the hell out of this book.
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Mar 11, 2012 Isidore rated it it was ok

Shelves: weird-non-fiction

As a glimpse into the largely unknown world of Eisenhower era mysticism, the book is fascinating. As an exemplification of cognitive dissonance, it is pretty much a failure. Festinger & Co.'s methodology was so flawed as to hopelessly compromise any conclusions they wished to draw.

Festinger heavily infiltrated and manipulated the cult. At one key moment, of the fourteen participants, no less than five were his secret "observers". Naturally, as even Festinger admits, the advent of so many As a glimpse into the largely unknown world of Eisenhower era mysticism, the book is fascinating. As an exemplification of cognitive dissonance, it is pretty much a failure. Festinger & Co.'s methodology was so flawed as to hopelessly compromise any conclusions they wished to draw.

Festinger heavily infiltrated and manipulated the cult. At one key moment, of the fourteen participants, no less than five were his secret "observers". Naturally, as even Festinger admits, the advent of so many "converts" into such a tiny group would have the distorting effect of greatly increasingly the commitment of the true believers. The observers were instructed to badger "Mrs. Keach", the leader of the cult, into firming up her very vague prophecies into an unequivocal prediction, so that Festinger could study the consequences of prophetic failure (at one point he alludes to the "awful possibility" that she might never make a sufficiently clear prophecy as to permit "disconfirmation"). In other words, he manipulated the cult leader into taking a position she would likely never have otherwise assumed. The fact that careers were ruined, that people were threatened with legal action and institutionalization, or forced to leave their homes to get away from the resultant public scandal does not appear to have raised any ethical qualms in Festinger and his associates.

Festinger went into this project with a preconceived theory about what would happen. When he reports what *did* happen, he downplays developments which are of no help to him, and plays up those which are, oversimplifying a complex situation. A vital part of his theory demands that the disillusioned cultists enter into active proselytizing as a means of averting the stress of cognitive dissonance. In this case they never did, and usually went out of their way NOT to proselytize. For the most part Festinger ignores this little problem. Toward the end, he concedes the expected proselytizing never occurred, but argues that the cult's decision to inform the media about their "message" following the failure of "Mrs. Keach"'s prophecy would fulfill his theory's requirements. The trouble is, the cult's recruitment of the media was atypical, measured, and brief in duration––scarcely the all-important emotional buttress his theory demands.

On the whole, "Mrs. Keach" and her friends come across as likable, well-meaning oddballs, Festinger and his agents as cold-blooded and unscrupulous, treating human beings as if they were lab rats, and not terribly scientific into the bargain. As for cognitive dissonance, it's an interesting and useful theory, but this book does not make a convincing case for it. It does show that people will rationalize their way out of challenges to cherished beliefs: ironically, this is as much true of Festinger & Co as it is of the cultists. ...more

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Apr 25, 2014 Tom rated it liked it

A fascinating and ambitious study but I can't really accept its conclusions because the method of study was so invasive. I mean let's work this out, we've got a cult of maybe a dozen people, six or seven of which are true believers (which is actually on the high side if you get right down to it). These people are horrible at recruiting new converts and aren't really interested in doing so. So you infiltrate this group with FOUR observers and sit back and watch. SUDDENLY the group adepts an A fascinating and ambitious study but I can't really accept its conclusions because the method of study was so invasive. I mean let's work this out, we've got a cult of maybe a dozen people, six or seven of which are true believers (which is actually on the high side if you get right down to it). These people are horrible at recruiting new converts and aren't really interested in doing so. So you infiltrate this group with FOUR observers and sit back and watch. SUDDENLY the group adepts an attitude of assuming that people who are "chosen" to join them will come on their own accord. At least one of the observers relates a fictitious dream that echoes some of the groups fundamental beliefs in order to gain entry, and SURPRISE the group begins to gain confidence in some of its more outlandish beliefs due to outside confirmations... Are we seeing a trend here? The involvement of the authors tipped the scales in these people's kooky belief system, and very well could've been the catalyst for the sensational prophecies that soon followed. Obviously the only moral way to do a study of this kind is to have direct involvement, but I believe that the zeal of the researchers ultimately corrupted any kind of organic development this "cult" could of been capable of. This is especially true of the fifth mole who tried to join after the prophecy failed in order to gauge the resiliency of these people's beliefs. They treated this late stage addition attempter as if he possessed the answers to why their prediction failed. If that doesn't prove that outside involvement heavily influenced these people than what could? How about including a story about a prank caller telling the cult to come to his house because there is a cataclysmic "flood" starting in his bathroom, and then relating how the cult fell for this story and actually tried to visit the fake address this person left because they were so gullible and confused. Oh wait, that actually happened in this book. So clearly the researchers responsible for this book are at least partly to blame for some of the members of the cult selling of all their earthly possessions, being made a mockery of in the press, and ultimately being mind screwed, because no matter how you slice it they influenced this group of people. Again, I liked the idea behind this book and thought it was an interesting effort, but ultimately I kept reading because the whole thing turned into a bit of a train wreck. Also the middle aged lady who spoke with the voice of the "creator" and who was completely believed by the group made me crack up. ...more

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Jun 03, 2011 Chris rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Shelves: apocolypse, culture, psychology, skepticism, nonfiction

You're a good person, right? Of course you are, I never doubted it for a moment. We all like to think were good people - fair, honest, generous, all that. Very few people, if asked, would say, "Well, I'm a right bastard and I don't care who knows it!"

So imagine that you - a good person - do something bad. Genuinely bad. You cheat on your spouse. You lie to a friend. You steal from your boss. You commit an act which, if someone else did it, you would roundly condemn them, forcing them into public ...more

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Jan 31, 2009 Andrew rated it it was amazing

Shelves: nonfiction

Nobody could write this book today. The researchers and their graduate students document their undercover penetration of a Apocalypse cult in pitch-perfect, meticulous detail; the only problem is that they violate just about every principle of scientific inquiry and social psychological ethics in the process. Despite its scientific shortcomings, the book is a fascinating and occasionally touching portrait of people who are desperately looking for self-validation in an impersonal world. The dry ...more

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Jan 01, 2017 Michael Perkins rated it really liked it

A man with a conviction is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.

Leon Festinger, A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1... ...more

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Jun 13, 2019 Jaedon rated it liked it · review of another edition

Shelves: non-fiction, psychology, sociology

The subject material is fairly interesting, and the primary group of interest really a perfect fit for the authors to test their hypotheses regarding the impact of the provable disconfirmation of prophecy on prophetic groups. Their introduction to several such groups throughout history is interesting if dry, but my primary complaint about this book and the reason for dropping two stars off the rating is this: when it comes to discussing the main group, there seems to have been little to no ...more

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Mar 29, 2019 Francis Bezooyen rated it really liked it

Some reviewers have criticized this study for the fact that by infiltrating the cult in question the researchers influenced the events that took place within it. However, the authors do a good job of outlining just what kinds of influence their actions had, and I feel assured that it was as minimal as possible if any kind of deep observation of this group were to be conducted at all, and also that there remains an enormous amount of "clean" data from which one may pluck out very useful insights. ...more

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Dec 31, 2018 JK rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

Required reading in the age of QAnon, Jordan Peterson and the catastrophic failures of neoliberal centrism.

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Aug 11, 2019 Diogenes rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

Shelves: favorites

Originally published in 1956, When Prophecy Fails is undoubtedly a powerful and vanguardist work of then-fledgling social psychology in the post-industrial era. It is referenced often and I just now got to digesting this dissection of the creation of a belief system, the proselytizing and promulgating of said system, and the bizarre ways homo sapiens warp their belief systems in the face of empirical hammer-blows of rational truths, or as the authors call them, disconfirmations, and what is now Originally published in 1956, When Prophecy Fails is undoubtedly a powerful and vanguardist work of then-fledgling social psychology in the post-industrial era. It is referenced often and I just now got to digesting this dissection of the creation of a belief system, the proselytizing and promulgating of said system, and the bizarre ways homo sapiens warp their belief systems in the face of empirical hammer-blows of rational truths, or as the authors call them, “disconfirmations”, and what is now widely known as “cognitive dissonance”. What the authors witness and record with this group of Doomsdayers can easily be applied to every other belief system—political, philosophical, religious, cultural, theoretical, fad-based, lunatic-forged, etc.—throughout human history. Obviously some systems of belief, rooted in ancient mythology and chronic magical thinking, or proven by hard science and intellectual wisdom, have been galvanized into legal systems and nation-making. Here I’ll give a nod to South Park’s depiction of the origins of Mormonism for another, 20-some minute illustration of how absurdity can survive, despite all logic that contradicts it. From Charles Manson’s Family to the Obama Birthers, Flat-earthers to Jim Jones, Tyler Durden to Tucker Carlson, otherwise incomprehensible systems of belief appear to easily sway certain portions of any population, even after innumerable opportunities to question the validity of such illogic fail to sever the transfixing cords. This subject is truly fascinating, and with a somewhat morbid curiosity, one must read this book and ponder its significance with how humans behave overall. It can explain a tremendous amount in our current era, and I have to imagine such dynamics will only grow worse as the effects of a warming world take their toll on a greater number of people, and Alvin Toffler’s “future shock” predictions wrestle within the neurons of every mind.   

I can’t remember what book it comes from (I’ll take a guess at Network Propaganda by Benkler, Faris, and Roberts), but the authors quoted someone else talking about how the internet allowed every “village idiot” to communicate with one another and gather followings, leading to this tumultuous age we now exist within. This is what When Prophecy Fails portrays now in real time. It is mind-boggling, maddening, and potentially hopeless to think we can cure this. Several thousand years ago, believing in invisible deities and their storm-fueled rages, forests filled with monsters, the sea leading to the ledge of the world, was all rational given the context of the times. Now, it’s utterly mystifying. The authors summarize this dynamic well, despite the obvious patriarchal use of masculine pronouns (it was the '50s after all):

“A man with a conviction is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.

We have all experienced the futility of trying to change a strong conviction, especially if the convinced person has some investment in his belief. We are familiar with the variety of ingenious defenses with which people protect their convictions, managing to keep them unscathed through the most devastating attacks.

But man’s resourcefulness goes beyond simply protecting a belief. Suppose an individual believes something with his whole heart; suppose further that he has a commitment to this belief, that he has taken irrevocable actions because of it; finally, suppose that he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that his belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before. Indeed, he may even show a new fervor about convincing and converting other people to his view.

How and why does such a response to contradictory evidence come about? This is the question on which this book focuses. We hope that, by the end of the volume, we will have provided an adequate answer to the question, an answer documented by data.” (p. 10)

They do indeed.
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Aug 13, 2014 Louise rated it it was ok

Shelves: psychology

This is a now classic study testing the then fledgling theory of cognitive dissonance, the process by which people respond to evidence that conflicts with their deeply held beliefs. It begins with what little is known of past doomsday believers when their prophesies did not come to pass. From there it describes a 1950's group expecting the world to end in a flood and that they would be rescued by a space ship.

The text is not reader friendly. Its plodding may result from an attempt to present the This is a now classic study testing the then fledgling theory of cognitive dissonance, the process by which people respond to evidence that conflicts with their deeply held beliefs. It begins with what little is known of past doomsday believers when their prophesies did not come to pass. From there it describes a 1950's group expecting the world to end in a flood and that they would be rescued by a space ship.

The text is not reader friendly. Its plodding may result from an attempt to present the group clinically, without developing the character of the individuals. A chart of participants would have been helpful. I read this over 3 days and was constantly flipping back to see who was who especially when different names are used, such as Marian for "Mrs. Keech" or "Thomas" for "Dr. Armstrong". The reader is never really oriented to place and time. No year is ever given and only towards the end when Minneapolis is mentioned can you guess where (are "Lake City" and "Collegetown" really the places?) this is taking place.

While this is a respected study, it seems that observers couldn't help but contaminate the results. There are 5 of them in the two groups that seem to have 10 key individuals. Observers are in close quarters with group members for long periods of time and their presence alone had to have bolstered the morale of the group. Quite a bit is made of signs derived from pranksters (the spacemen from Clarion and the flooded bathroom are two that come to mind), and it would seem that the observers themselves contributed similar signs. One observer entered with a cover story that re-enforced the group beliefs and was welcomed as a sign from their outer space advisers.

Even if the observers were hidden behind one way mirrors, this study does not seem valid. Can observations from a small group holding such extreme beliefs be applied to the wider population?

Members of this group behave as predicted by Festinger's theory. They become more intense in their beliefs in proportion to what they have sacrificed for them and how much contact they have with each other when they receive the disconfirming information.

The book has some interesting moments and in some points seemed like the basis for a TV drama. But as a research study, I had higher expectations.
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Aug 09, 2015 Dominic rated it it was ok · review of another edition

THE GOOD: "So what happens when the people in the book find out that the world hasn't ended?" The strong believers with social support rationalize it ("It was just a test of our faith!") and ultimately become stronger in their faith ("When the end of the world happens for real, we will surely be picked up by the benevolent extra-terrestrial beings who tested us since we passed with flying colors!"). Others, who lacked strong social support or remained isolated from other group members and had ...more

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Jan 30, 2016 rebel rated it it was ok

Shelves: psychology, religion, dnf, sociology

Dnf at 33% (read three of ten chapters). As several other reviewers have noted, this study absolutely does not follow today's psychological ethical guidelines and so can never be repeated. A very small cult/group is infiltrated by several participant observers. No attempt is made to inform the group members of the study or to gain their consent to be studied (and then written about in a book!). Through the participant observers and the actions of the researchers themselves, the group seems to ...more

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Sep 25, 2013 Samuel rated it it was amazing

What an odd, fascinating book this is! It comes from a time when the social sciences could get away with a lot of things that nowadays would be considered highly unethical -- many of the critiques of the book center on Festinger & co.'s covert infiltration of the Seekers, as well as the ways in which their doing so changed the dynamic of the group. As a proof of its scientific theories, it's interesting, though much flawed. But as a portrait of an intriguing group of people at that strange ...more

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Jul 15, 2013 Gary Daly rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Published in the early 1950s this psychological study of 'dissonance' (look it up) straight from the coal face of people (the subjects) peddling busllshit at the expense of logic, rationality and sensitivity to the real world around them. A group of pie-holes in isolation who wait for their UFO's and mystical 'space-men' to beam them up (on one occasion whilst sining Christmas Carols on a suburban street corner) as well as the channeled truths (beamed in from the planet Clarion) about an end of ...more

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Dec 27, 2019 Jay Medenwaldt rated it liked it · review of another edition

In 1954, a group of social psychologists heard about a small cult group who believed aliens were coming to save them from a flood that would destroy the earth on Dec 21. The psychologists infiltrated the group to record everything they could about the events leading up to and shortly after the predicted destruction. This book is a detailed account of what happened and is somewhat of a lesser-known classic among psychologists.

The fact that this book is a true story and an inside account of a In 1954, a group of social psychologists heard about a small cult group who believed aliens were coming to save them from a flood that would destroy the earth on Dec 21. The psychologists infiltrated the group to record everything they could about the events leading up to and shortly after the predicted destruction. This book is a detailed account of what happened and is somewhat of a lesser-known classic among psychologists.

The fact that this book is a true story and an inside account of a cult-type group is amazing. Knowing this really happened is mind-boggling. To read a first-hand account of how people in the group acted and reacted during the time of events offers great insight into the lengths people will go to in order to maintain their beliefs, even when they are clearly disproven. The observations in this book are paralled on all sides of the modern political and religious spectrum.

The authors changed the names of the people involved and the cities where the events took place in order to protect their identities, presumably from further embarrassment since the events made national headlines. I understand the desire to do this, at least for the names, but changing the names of the cities was distracting and confusing because understanding the geography would have been helpful.

While the story, in theory, is extremely interesting, the book is written in a rather dry fashion, making it difficult to get through at times. Essentially. it's too detailed and there's not enough commentary on the events. It's just straight reporting of what happened during the year of the events and it becomes increasingly detailed as the date of the prophecy got closer. There is commentary by the authors before and after the narrative of events, but it's pretty minimal and doesn't help in understanding until after the fact. Even with two psychology degrees, I would have benefited from more discussion of the psychological theories at work.

Overall, the book was worth reading, at least for me because of my background in psychology and how I try to integrate it into apologetics. There were some really great takeaways in the book, they were just spaced out between a lot of irrelevant details. I'm not sure I would recommend the book to anyone else unless they're a psychologist, really interested in cults, or really want to understand biased reasoning. ...more

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Mar 13, 2018 Katy Mulvaney rated it really liked it

A very intriguing read. The tone is most academic without becoming dry (usually), but the story is a heartbreaking portrait of people desperate to believe, desperate to be special, desperate to cede guidance of their life to a higher power. Desperate to be the chosen ones. Desperate for what they've dedicated their lives to to be real.

The sociologists get the closest to proof they can for their intriguing theory that disconfirmation of a prophecy (a sincerely believed one) will cause an INCREASE ...more

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Nov 28, 2017 John Petrocelli rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

Review: Completely blown away by this incredibly insightful book, which must have been painstaking to compile. Very engaging, and interesting account of a cult. Festinger and his crew were very timely and opportunistic in finding a group that was specific about a prophecy that was sure to fail. Succeeded in infiltrating and studying the cult, which proselytized selectively and infrequently before the prophesized date of the worldwide flood and rescue by aliens, but proselytized more than ever ...more

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Jun 29, 2018 Chris rated it it was amazing

A landmark social study that reads at time like a Christopher Guest movie. The authors infiltrated a group of UFO believers to examine what would happen when their belief (that the world would end by flood on Dec. 21st) was disconfirmed. I find belief (just the idea of it) fascinating, which is what led me to pick up this book.

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Jul 24, 2017 Caitlin Bronson rated it liked it · review of another edition

Shelves: religion

The hypothesis was interesting and - I'm sure - true, but author's scientific methods are pretty suspect and compromise a lot of his findings. Still, it was an interesting insight into the psychology of belief and how things like religious faith work.

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Sep 11, 2019 Lukas rated it really liked it

The lessons from this book could be summarised in a much shorter space, but the insights are nonetheless valuable.

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Jan 02, 2019 Daniel Hollands rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

Really interesting to see behind the curtain, as it were.

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Jul 11, 2018 Daniel Schulof rated it it was amazing

You can never know too much about this subject. Easy to see why it is a classic.

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Aug 26, 2017 Michael jäger rated it really liked it

Liked it a lot.....,but i need to admit that i felt bad for the Group Members and how they convinced themselves after the failed date for the Apocalypse.

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Mar 14, 2017 Thomas Laperriere rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Detailed study of strange group

A bit long in the telling and more analysis might have been helpful. I learned some important things about how people hold unreasonable beliefs and why they become hard to back away from. The role of group support. Those who were alone when disconfirming events happened doubted but those in company accepted the group rationalization. Interesting stuff!!

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Dec 18, 2019 Rachel rated it really liked it · review of another edition

What a fascinating study of a cult

This book was an amazing study of the dynamics of a doomsday cult, with the added dimension of a reluctant rather than charismatic leader. I was fascinated by the types of people drawn to it, and how they reinforced their beliefs. The conclusions about disconfirmation were, um, enlightening.

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About Leon Festinger

Leon Festinger

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Leon Festinger was interested in science at a young age, and decided to pursue a career in psychology. He received his bachelor's degree from City College of New York and went on to Iowa State University for his master's degree and his Ph.D. (which he received in 1942). For the next several years he made his living teaching at different universities until he went to Stanford in 1955.

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“A man with a conviction is a hard man to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.

We have all experienced the futility of trying to change a strong conviction, especially if the convinced person has some investment in his belief. We are familiar with the variety of ingenious defenses with which people protect their convictions, managing to keep them unscathed through the most devastating attacks.

But man’s resourcefulness goes beyond simply protecting a belief. Suppose an individual believes something with his whole heart; suppose further that he has a commitment to this belief, that he has taken irrevocable actions because of it; finally, suppose that he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence, that his belief is wrong: what will happen? The individual will frequently emerge, not only unshaken, but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before. Indeed, he may even show a new fervor about convincing and converting other people to his view.” — 4 likes

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