Goodreads helps you keep track of books you want to read.
Start by marking “Probability Theory: The Logic of Science” as Want to Read:
Probability Theory: The Logic of Science
Enlarge cover
Rate this book
Clear rating
Open Preview

Probability Theory: The Logic of Science

4.38  ·  Rating details ·  459 ratings  ·  17 reviews
Going beyond the conventional mathematics of probability theory, this study views the subject in a wider context. It discusses new results, along with applications of probability theory to a variety of problems. The book contains many exercises and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate-level courses involving data analysis. Aimed at readers already familiar with ap ...more
Hardcover, 753 pages
Published June 9th 2003 by Cambridge University Press (first published April 9th 1999)
More Details... edit details

Friend Reviews

To see what your friends thought of this book, please sign up.

Reader Q&A

To ask other readers questions about Probability Theory, please sign up.
Popular Answered Questions
Justin The equations before 2.16 involve differentiation and continuity, which are introduced early on in the calculus sequence, and rigorously defined in…moreThe equations before 2.16 involve differentiation and continuity, which are introduced early on in the calculus sequence, and rigorously defined in the study of analysis.

The book is targeted towards scientists, grad students, or "advanced undergraduates," so I think it would be difficult to attempt it without previous university-level math exposure.

I'm taking 3rd year math courses at my University, but this book may be above where I'm at as well. I'll probably read it at some point, when I finish my next stats class that has an emphasis on probability. If I can make sense of the equations I'll let you know.(less)

Community Reviews

Showing 1-30
Rating details
Sort: Default
|
Filter
Paul
Mar 30, 2013 rated it it was amazing
Folks who follow me on Twitter know this is essentially my 2nd bible. (Yes, the first one is The Bible.)

There's really no way to delve into that other than to recapitulate the book, but let me just hammer one point, which I take to be central, home: good old-fashioned Aristotelian two-valued logic is a special case of probability theory properly understood. Conversely, probability theory properly understood is a generalization of good old-fashioned Aristotelian two-valued logic.

Jaynes makes no c
...more
Joshua
May 13, 2016 rated it it was amazing
A "frequentist," according Jaynes, is someone who believes in random variables. That would be just about anyone who uses probability theory, right? "No," Jaynes would say. It's anyone who uses orthodox probability theory. The alternative, espoused here, is to consider probability as a measurement for propositions about reality. I'm afraid that I'm not going to be able to explain it any better than that, but if you read the first two chapters of this book, you will concede that it's a neat idea. ...more
Dana Larose
May 06, 2010 marked it as to-read
*sigh* Why do I love adding math books I'm most likely not smart enough to understand?
Benson Lee
May 19, 2015 rated it really liked it
It's a good book - it approaches probability from the right direction and develops interesting, useful results. However, the author is often wordy and spends a bunch of time trying to convince the reader why the Bayesian interpretation of statistics is superior to frequentist interpretations.. why would I be reading a book about Bayesian statistics if I thought it was a waste of time, and why do I need to read about application of these ideas to determining whether ESP is real or not? Anyway, st ...more
Jake
Dec 28, 2015 rated it it was amazing
“Our theme is simply: probability theory as extended logic. The ‘new’ perception amounts to the recognition that the mathematical rules of probability theory are not merely rules for calculating frequencies of ‘random variables’; they are also the unique consistent rules for conducting inference (i.e. plausible reasoning) of any kind, and we shall apply them in full generality to that end.” - E.T. Jaynes’

As an undergraduate in computer science, I left my statistics course with disdain. The curri
...more
Priyank Chaudhary
Jul 27, 2016 rated it really liked it
Written in Prof. Jaynes's elegantly engrossing conversational style, full of supporting examples, and unapologetically biased against frequentists, this is a great introductory book of Bayesian statistics.
Rather than serve as a didactic textbook, it forces you to think; You'll know it well why it uses "Logic" in its title. The discussion on maximum entropy approach to select prior probability distributions, which he is famous for, communication theory, and physics of random experiments is as goo
...more
Dani Mexuto
Nov 24, 2016 rated it it was ok
Entendo mellor os Youtubes
Eric
Jul 19, 2017 rated it it was amazing
Jaynes' tome on Bayesian Statistics and its underpinnings. A really important text for me while I was working on my PhD. I found a lot of really useful guidance here on assigning prior probabilities and using maximum entropy principles. It's also just fun to read. Jaynes has a strong voice and is a bold shit-talker when it comes to the short-comings of traditional frequentist statistics.
yash kalani
Oct 29, 2018 rated it it was amazing
This book took my brain apart and rebuilt it.
Doug
Jun 18, 2009 rated it it was amazing
Shelves: text-books
This is a must read for anyone claiming to be a probabilist.
0spinboson
Sep 20, 2010 marked it as home-library
Review can be found here.
Francisco Tapiador
Nov 13, 2011 rated it it was amazing
This book is going to be huge in the next twenty years. Just keep tuned.
James
Apr 06, 2013 rated it it was amazing
A delightful thrashing of frequentist statistics through extreme precision and philosophy. A worthy read for anyone.
Steve Davidson
Dec 05, 2016 rated it it was amazing
Best book on statistics ever.
Trevor Keller
rated it it was amazing
Jan 22, 2018
Shanu Das
rated it it was amazing
Sep 15, 2015
Ikalas
rated it liked it
Aug 16, 2012
Pablo Sandler
rated it really liked it
Jun 22, 2014
Robin
rated it it was amazing
Oct 31, 2018
Syed Mohsin
rated it really liked it
Aug 24, 2014
Lars
rated it it was amazing
Sep 18, 2013
Panagiotis Papasaikas
rated it really liked it
Jan 29, 2016
Vince Neil
rated it it was amazing
Sep 13, 2015
Raj Upadhyay
rated it it was ok
Jul 11, 2017
Matthew Celnik
rated it really liked it
Feb 20, 2014
Apoorv
rated it it was amazing
May 26, 2016
Cam Spiers
rated it it was amazing
Jul 28, 2016
Qiaochu Yuan
rated it really liked it
May 03, 2013
Nelson
rated it it was amazing
Feb 13, 2012
Chase Roycroft
rated it really liked it
May 27, 2018
« previous 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 next »
topics  posts  views  last activity   
Available as a download from WUSTL 1 23 Jun 21, 2008 06:59PM  
  • Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference
  • Linear Algebra Done Right
  • Bayesian Data Analysis
  • Information Theory, Inference and Learning Algorithms
  • Probabilistic Graphical Models: Principles and Techniques
  • Topology
  • The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference, and Prediction
  • Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
  • An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Volume 1
  • The Mathematical Theory of Communication
  • Visual Complex Analysis
  • Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial Introduction with R
  • A Treatise on Probability
  • Good and Real: Demystifying Paradoxes from Physics to Ethics
  • The Princeton Companion to Mathematics
  • Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning
  • Introductory Functional Analysis with Applications
  • Concrete Mathematics: A Foundation for Computer Science

Goodreads is hiring!

If you like books and love to build cool products, we may be looking for you.
Learn more »
8 followers
Edwin Thompson Jaynes was the Wayman Crow Distinguished Professor of Physics at Washington University in St. Louis. He wrote extensively on statistical mechanics and on foundations of probability and statistical inference, initiating in 1957 the MaxEnt interpretation of thermodynamics, as being a particular application of more general Bayesian/information theory techniques (although he argued this ...more
“A paradox is simply an error out of control; i.e. one that has trapped so many unwary minds that it has gone public, become institutionalized in our literature, and taught as truth.” 1 likes
“if fallacious reasoning always led to absurd conclusions, it would be found out at once and corrected. But once an easy, shortcut mode of reasoning has led to a few correct results, almost everybody accepts it; those who try to warn against it are not listened to.” 1 likes
More quotes…