The author does add some of his own analysis, specifically ...more
The book offers a few new (to me) insights that are worth recalling:
The paradox of skill - in fields where skill is more important to the outcome, luck's role in determining the ultimate winner increases. And in fi ...more
Lots of examples and the math is easy... good read for just about anyone interested in sports/investing/etc.
You always stand when you have 17, but if you have 16, you take another card only if the dealer has a 7 or higher.
Reversion to the mean is most pronounced at the extremes, so the 1st lesson is to recognize that when you ...more
Most often when we speak of skill or luck, we are talking about the extremes of the spectrum. Chess champions or tennis players for skill. Casino games or p ...more
I also like that the lesson ...more
Building heavily on Nassim Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness," Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow" among others, Mauboussin connects the dots and especially over the first half of the book develops a thorough overview on the topic.
Like many good business books, the second half of the book fades a bit with too ...more
In short, luck occurs all the time all around us. We ...more
In my opinion, this is Mauboussin's best yet. He writes in the same clear, informative style, teaching the reader about statistical methods as he makes his point. And his point is always about what the data shows. He explains the design of his experiments and answers questions about success, luck, and skill. So, no stats required, but the reader will get a healthy dose in the text.
Also, I read along while I listened using whispersync. The text is well-written and ...more
It's still a recommend fr ...more
Mauboussin does a great job of weaving in statistical theory, a swath of examples, and the most influential psychological research. There's plenty of Kahneman, as to be expected. Bottom line: We're not as good as we think we are in separating luck from skill. This ...more
That said I think the last chapter was a great summary and more books should wrap things up that way!
Would courage anyone interested in the spade to read it - it's not overly challenging - but feel there are better examples.
Michael J. Mauboussin is Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. Prior to joining LMCM in 2004, Michael was a Managing Director and Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Credit Suisse. Michael joined CS in 1992 as a packaged food industry analyst. He is a former president of the Consumer Analyst Group of New York and was repeatedly named to Institutional Investors All-America R...more