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Extinction: Evolution and the End of Man
Sixty-five million years ago the dinosaurs were destroyed in a mass extinction that remains unexplained. Out of that devastation, new life developed and the world regained its equilibrium. Until now. Employing radically new perspectives on the science of life, scientists are beginning to uncover signs of a similar event on the the end of man.
In telling the story of the last sixty-five million years, Michael Boulter reveals extraordinary new insights that scientists are only now beginning to understand about the fossil record, the rise and fall of species, and the nature of life. According to Boulter, nature is a self-organizing system in which the whole is more important than its parts. The system is self-correcting, and one of its tools is extinction. If the system is disrupted, it will do what it must to restore balance.
This book is a thoroughly researched introduction to the new developments in the science of life and a chilling account of the effects that humans have had on the planet. The world will adapt and survive; humanity most probably will not.
In telling the story of the last sixty-five million years, Michael Boulter reveals extraordinary new insights that scientists are only now beginning to understand about the fossil record, the rise and fall of species, and the nature of life. According to Boulter, nature is a self-organizing system in which the whole is more important than its parts. The system is self-correcting, and one of its tools is extinction. If the system is disrupted, it will do what it must to restore balance.
This book is a thoroughly researched introduction to the new developments in the science of life and a chilling account of the effects that humans have had on the planet. The world will adapt and survive; humanity most probably will not.
- GenresScienceNonfiction
224 pages, Paperback
First published March 22, 2002
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Displaying 1 - 6 of 6 reviews
January 30, 2025
This book goes back, way back, to the Big Bang and the Earth’s development, a lot of which is known because of researching fossils (a lot of the book concerns fossils). From his research on fossils the author has projected that an extinction level event occurs approximately every 26-million-years. Boulter writes that so much damage has been inflicted on the Earth due to pollution and massive harvesting of forests (to turn it into pastureland) that many large animals have already gone extinct. He writes that the next event may entirely eliminate homo sapiens. He does make note that many rodents will survive and will love not having to compete with us for resources. Boulter says that extinctions are necessary to retain life on Earth and says evolution thrives on culling. He believes that what we are now doing to the environment is putting the final nails in our coffin. I learned lots from this book and I really enjoyed it EXCEPT for the numerous (at least 40) printing errors – ‘are’ spelled ‘arc,’ ‘I’ spelled ‘1,’ ‘diversity’ spelled ‘diversitv,’ and ‘Chapter’ spelled ‘Chaptkr,’ etc. Even misspelling some of the researchers’ names, which to me is inexcusable, so only 3 stars.
July 14, 2019
Dense, somewhat difficult, fascinating
While I think that paleobiologist Michael Boulter is certainly correct in his assertion that we are going to go extinct, as all creatures eventually do, I don't think we will go the way of the mammoth or the giant sloth or the Neanderthal. Our exit may very well be totally unique. We may go the way of the dinosaur, of course, our world obliterated by a cosmic catastrophe, or we may blow ourselves up, and then watch the survivors die out in the ruins. But more likely we will pass away quietly as our culture transforms us from what we are now to creatures that are partly the result of genetic engineering and partly the result of mechanical ingenuity, until one day we may notice that we are so different from the humans of the past as to be an entirely different species.
But Boulter is not concerned here with cultural evolution. He is looking at the biological evolution of life on earth primarily through the fossil record and in particular through Fossil Record 2, a huge database that he has studied extensively. His theme, despite the book's title, is the diversity of life, the radiation of living groups, etc., and how an understanding of that diversity through an analysis of the fossil record can shed light on the evolutionary process. He analyzes the growth of life's diversity after the major catastrophic events in the earth's history and plots curves and comes to the conclusion that biodiversity is an example of exponential growth, and that the phenomenon of evolution is another example of a self-organized system (such as sand piles and the weather) driven by "power laws and pink noise." (p. 125)
Some of the interesting conclusions that Boulter comes to along the way to forecasting our extinction is that we probably did do in the Neanderthal. (He lists "selfishness" as one of our distinctive traits that the Neanderthal apparently didn't have enough of.) And yes, we wiped out the major fauna of North America within a thousand years or so of our arrival from across the Bering Strait. In fact, we are now living through a period of mass-extinctions, in particular of large mammals, and we are a major factor in those extinctions.
My problem with this book is that it is sometimes hard to follow Boulter's argument since he is not as direct as he might be. Then again it may be that I need to read more carefully! At any rate, the fact that biodiversity follows an exponential curve until it hits a catastrophic event is certainly one of his points. And that evolution is an example of a self-organizing system like that of a sand pile, and behaves in similar ways with large changes occurring less often than small changes, etc., is another. Do "groups of animal and plant Families follow clear rules in their origin, expansion, peak diversification and eventual extinction?" is a question he asks. (p. 124) His answer is yes, and the pattern can be traced. He adds that "extinctions are an essential stimulus to the evolutionary process." (p. 183)
The "new idea" (as he terms it, p. 182) that mass-extinctions come from "within" as a feature of self-organization does not seem convincing to me, although it is certainly intriguing and worthy of further study. He writes: "So modern man is kicking the sand pile and causing a severe avalanche that only started to crash down at the end of the last ice age...the fundamental cause continues: human aggression. The first phase was our killing other mammal species...then through human history our killing of one another."
But is it only a temporary irony that today there are more humans on this planet than ever before?
Aggressive we are. And we kill each other with an amazing abandonment, but have such actions led us toward extinction? The evidence is all to the contrary mainly because our reproductive abilities and our ability to exploit planetary resources outweigh our murderous tendencies. And besides the cause of at least some of the great mass extinctions of the past (huge meteorites) clearly came from without.
Boulter sees small animals inheriting the earth after we are gone. He notes (p. 193) that "insects and birds are still at the early stage of high diversification." What this means is that a group of animals that is continuing to diversify (continuing to grow in the number of species) will be safe from extinction until the diversification slows. This is a nice scientific understanding, but what it says to me is that a successful body and behavioral style (e.g., a Family or order or some other classification of organisms) is less likely to go extinct than a less successful one. One might say, QED.
He speculates (his terminology, page 176) that "our system is in free fall, out of control." We won't need "nuclear weapons," he posits, "or the inventions of science fiction writers." We are "doing very well...just with our use of fossil fuels." Exactly what he has in mind here is not entirely clear. Does he mean that we will pollute ourselves to death?
Elsewhere he writes about global warming, caused in part by our burning of fossil fuels, but advises that fluctuations in temperature are common, and that for much of the history of life on this planet it was hotter than it is now, and that, in fact, for 250 million years from before the P-Tr mass-extinctions until the Miocene there was no frost on earth. (p. 113) Furthermore, "between AD 900 and 1300 cattle were farmed in Greenland and the French tried to embargo English wine." (p. 122)
In short, this is not a text for the casual reader. It is dense, and in places, technical. But what Boulter has to say is worth the effort.
--Dennis Littrell, author of “Understanding Evolution and Ourselves”
While I think that paleobiologist Michael Boulter is certainly correct in his assertion that we are going to go extinct, as all creatures eventually do, I don't think we will go the way of the mammoth or the giant sloth or the Neanderthal. Our exit may very well be totally unique. We may go the way of the dinosaur, of course, our world obliterated by a cosmic catastrophe, or we may blow ourselves up, and then watch the survivors die out in the ruins. But more likely we will pass away quietly as our culture transforms us from what we are now to creatures that are partly the result of genetic engineering and partly the result of mechanical ingenuity, until one day we may notice that we are so different from the humans of the past as to be an entirely different species.
But Boulter is not concerned here with cultural evolution. He is looking at the biological evolution of life on earth primarily through the fossil record and in particular through Fossil Record 2, a huge database that he has studied extensively. His theme, despite the book's title, is the diversity of life, the radiation of living groups, etc., and how an understanding of that diversity through an analysis of the fossil record can shed light on the evolutionary process. He analyzes the growth of life's diversity after the major catastrophic events in the earth's history and plots curves and comes to the conclusion that biodiversity is an example of exponential growth, and that the phenomenon of evolution is another example of a self-organized system (such as sand piles and the weather) driven by "power laws and pink noise." (p. 125)
Some of the interesting conclusions that Boulter comes to along the way to forecasting our extinction is that we probably did do in the Neanderthal. (He lists "selfishness" as one of our distinctive traits that the Neanderthal apparently didn't have enough of.) And yes, we wiped out the major fauna of North America within a thousand years or so of our arrival from across the Bering Strait. In fact, we are now living through a period of mass-extinctions, in particular of large mammals, and we are a major factor in those extinctions.
My problem with this book is that it is sometimes hard to follow Boulter's argument since he is not as direct as he might be. Then again it may be that I need to read more carefully! At any rate, the fact that biodiversity follows an exponential curve until it hits a catastrophic event is certainly one of his points. And that evolution is an example of a self-organizing system like that of a sand pile, and behaves in similar ways with large changes occurring less often than small changes, etc., is another. Do "groups of animal and plant Families follow clear rules in their origin, expansion, peak diversification and eventual extinction?" is a question he asks. (p. 124) His answer is yes, and the pattern can be traced. He adds that "extinctions are an essential stimulus to the evolutionary process." (p. 183)
The "new idea" (as he terms it, p. 182) that mass-extinctions come from "within" as a feature of self-organization does not seem convincing to me, although it is certainly intriguing and worthy of further study. He writes: "So modern man is kicking the sand pile and causing a severe avalanche that only started to crash down at the end of the last ice age...the fundamental cause continues: human aggression. The first phase was our killing other mammal species...then through human history our killing of one another."
But is it only a temporary irony that today there are more humans on this planet than ever before?
Aggressive we are. And we kill each other with an amazing abandonment, but have such actions led us toward extinction? The evidence is all to the contrary mainly because our reproductive abilities and our ability to exploit planetary resources outweigh our murderous tendencies. And besides the cause of at least some of the great mass extinctions of the past (huge meteorites) clearly came from without.
Boulter sees small animals inheriting the earth after we are gone. He notes (p. 193) that "insects and birds are still at the early stage of high diversification." What this means is that a group of animals that is continuing to diversify (continuing to grow in the number of species) will be safe from extinction until the diversification slows. This is a nice scientific understanding, but what it says to me is that a successful body and behavioral style (e.g., a Family or order or some other classification of organisms) is less likely to go extinct than a less successful one. One might say, QED.
He speculates (his terminology, page 176) that "our system is in free fall, out of control." We won't need "nuclear weapons," he posits, "or the inventions of science fiction writers." We are "doing very well...just with our use of fossil fuels." Exactly what he has in mind here is not entirely clear. Does he mean that we will pollute ourselves to death?
Elsewhere he writes about global warming, caused in part by our burning of fossil fuels, but advises that fluctuations in temperature are common, and that for much of the history of life on this planet it was hotter than it is now, and that, in fact, for 250 million years from before the P-Tr mass-extinctions until the Miocene there was no frost on earth. (p. 113) Furthermore, "between AD 900 and 1300 cattle were farmed in Greenland and the French tried to embargo English wine." (p. 122)
In short, this is not a text for the casual reader. It is dense, and in places, technical. But what Boulter has to say is worth the effort.
--Dennis Littrell, author of “Understanding Evolution and Ourselves”
April 16, 2024
Human extension
The author of postulates that human extinction is already in the works. The book goes back to the earliest extensions and goes up until our present time. He looks at what caused these extinctions and what could possibly cause human extension. He looks at various variables, which would include the extension.as far as humans, he looks at selfishness, aggression, and war, which are very much characteristics of today’s human existence. I found a book very interesting and I recommended for those who like to read about human extinction.
The author of postulates that human extinction is already in the works. The book goes back to the earliest extensions and goes up until our present time. He looks at what caused these extinctions and what could possibly cause human extension. He looks at various variables, which would include the extension.as far as humans, he looks at selfishness, aggression, and war, which are very much characteristics of today’s human existence. I found a book very interesting and I recommended for those who like to read about human extinction.
March 29, 2023
Not a good representation of thoughts of paleontologists. Constantly spitting back at the founders of natural science doesnt make him look good.
September 8, 2025
中譯本(簡體)：滅絕：進化與人類的終結。由博爾特的語氣來看，這本書應該是個「創見」，就是能登上頂級科學刊物的那種。那麼，創見是什麼呢？我想應該是，博爾特提出了一個「解釋進化的新模型」。這個模型主要是以「第二化石記錄」為資料庫，「生物多樣性」為主要變數，揭示地球物種數量變化與大滅絕(可能包含滅絕)之間的關係(曲線變化)。結果顯示，地球生命為混沌中產生的自組織系統(紡錘形)。大滅絕之後，生物多樣性均呈現指數爆炸形的增長曲線。這個理論可以昇華出一些關於進化的認知(哲學)概念。例如，其一，物種滅絕對進化過程是一個必要的刺激。沒有滅絕就沒有生物多樣性的新成長。進化過程會使生命愈趨複雜，但複雜性增長又會使得自組織系統的耐性降怟(脆弱性提升)，這時就會產生大滅絕(這是自組織的特性)。就像一些玄幻小說描寫的，宇宙在經歷若干個「會元」後，必然會自我「毀滅」，然後再「重啟」。玄幻小說中的理論通常是，由於修仙者過多，對宇宙資源的消耗過甚，宇宙為了自救，故必進行「大劫」，清除「業」者，以讓宇宙煥發新生。所以，宿命的看，人類做為地球生命進化的頂點，不管其智力、道德如何，恐怕都避免不了要承擔大滅絕劊子手的角色。當然，這只是我的引申。不過在書中，博爾特雖然沒有這種宿命論的論斷，但對人類「本性及行為」顯然也是悲觀的。博爾特認為，從化石記錄來看，大滅絕的進程從一萬年前就已開始，而人類就是這個大滅絕的主要推手(人類本姓滅名絕)。而到工業社會後，燃燒石油成為破壞環境的主要方式，並加遽這個大滅絕的進程。但是，作者也說，從地質年代來看，大滅絕雖是必然，但為時尚遠。也就是說，人類大概率是看不到這個大滅絕的結果了(像恐龍一樣)。但也有極小的概率，人類可能不會全部滅亡，而只是不斷進行文明崩毀與重生的循環(這個極小概率也是我的臆想)。博爾特在書中甚至推想了哪些物種可能會成為大滅絕之後的主角(當然，沒有人類)。其二就是關於「適者生存」的理解。本書的書皮折頁上雖然印有博爾特對「弱肉強食」的解釋。但由自組織理論是否可以得出如此的結論，我尚不清楚。但書末最後一句話，博爾特說：「整個進化樹的各個部分，需要的是同等的尊重」。這或許是個探析的開始。
February 19, 2016
The author and his team use data-mining and statistical analysis (pretty dull reading, to be honest) to show patterns in species diversification and extinction. In stable environments without outside interruptions, fairly normal, bell-shaped curves emerge. Species (Families, actually) expand and decline over time. There isn't much in this book to explain how, just that it seems to be a consistent pattern. And then there are mass extinction events caused by outside forces like those that occurred 245 and 86 million years ago. These break that common pattern. From statistical analysis, the current pattern of extinction shows we are currently experiencing such an event, presumably caused by human disruption of Earth's climate and environments.
From here, Boulter seems to argue that this means humanity is doomed. This seems quite a leap, especially in that he suggests no proximate cause. Basically it's something like, "We've messed up our climate. We're doomed." Clearly, Boulter is a pessimist when it comes to humanity. This comes through in some of his underlying assumptions (like peaceful Neanderthals vs. aggressive modern humans) and in not so subtle turns of phrase, one of which was 'our selfish burning of fossil fuels' (Pg 189). Sorry, but 'selfish' is the wrong word here. 'Ignorant' might work. 'Poorly considered' might be better. But my point is that people didn't really understand the possible environmental impact when they started using fossil fuels. They didn't see how what they did could effect the entire planet. We know better now, and we're starting to do something about it. It may be later than it should have been, and maybe we're a bit slow intellectually, but we can learn and we can alter our behavior. Yeah, we messed up, but we're still a young species. We're going to make a few mistakes. But we've proven we can learn, adapt, and go on. We've done it before. We'll do it again. Doomed, we may be, but I think we've got a few good years left.
From here, Boulter seems to argue that this means humanity is doomed. This seems quite a leap, especially in that he suggests no proximate cause. Basically it's something like, "We've messed up our climate. We're doomed." Clearly, Boulter is a pessimist when it comes to humanity. This comes through in some of his underlying assumptions (like peaceful Neanderthals vs. aggressive modern humans) and in not so subtle turns of phrase, one of which was 'our selfish burning of fossil fuels' (Pg 189). Sorry, but 'selfish' is the wrong word here. 'Ignorant' might work. 'Poorly considered' might be better. But my point is that people didn't really understand the possible environmental impact when they started using fossil fuels. They didn't see how what they did could effect the entire planet. We know better now, and we're starting to do something about it. It may be later than it should have been, and maybe we're a bit slow intellectually, but we can learn and we can alter our behavior. Yeah, we messed up, but we're still a young species. We're going to make a few mistakes. But we've proven we can learn, adapt, and go on. We've done it before. We'll do it again. Doomed, we may be, but I think we've got a few good years left.
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