The Four Tests: What It Will Take to Keep America Strong and Good

by Daniel Baer

An authoritative, illuminating, and ultimately optimistic look at America’s future and the “tests” the United States must meet to maintain leadership and power in the 21st century—from the former US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

With today’s fraught global and political climate, American hegemony is over and the assumption that America maintains its dominant status in global politics is waning. The divisions between us, economic changes driven by globalization and technology, as well as climate change, pandemics, and the resurgence of authoritarianism, make it difficult to be optimistic about America’s future. But what if we use this moment as an opportunity to think about what might come next, and how to build what we need to succeed?

If we’re going to allow ourselves to diagnose a “polycrisis” then we should also admit the possibility of “polyprogress.” This book is a roadmap for those who want to take America’s challenges head on, and who hold on to the conviction that we can tackle them.

In The Four Tests, Baer argues that we are living through a transition moment and lays out the four tests we must

While each test poses significant challenges, the US has advantages that some of our most vexing competitors lack. Meeting these tests demands changes in behavior and culture—from politicians, corporate leaders, and citizens. But if we meet these tests, then we can be confident of America’s future. The question is not whether we can succeed—but whether we will.

Straightforward and non-polemical, Baer’s pragmatic approach will provide fodder for discussion for Trump-supporting aunts and their Elizabeth Warren–stan nephews far beyond the beltway.

Genres: Nonfiction, Politics

272 pages, Hardcover

First published September 19, 2023

Reviews

[Kathryn Bashaar · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting and fairly easy to read take on the challenges facing our nation in the coming decade or so.
We're in so much trouble in so many ways that it can feel overwhelming. But Baer zooms out and boils down the tasks ahead into four related categories.

Scale is his first category. He explains that size matters. We aren't the biggest country in the world by population. Most likely fairly soon, we will not longer have the biggest economy. We can certainly increase our population by allowing more (controlled) immigration. We are lucky that so many people still want to come here. But Baer also emphasizes the need to form common cause with allies. We are bigger together.

Next he addresses investment. The nations who will win the coming decades are those who invest in their people. Conservatives won't like this chapter. Baer urges lots of investment in early childhood and in making higher education (including vo-tech) more affordable. Even in the area of investment in research and technology, he envisions a large role for government in basic research, leaving the practical applications to private industry.

Conservatives will also not like the chapter on fairness. Baer gives all the reasons why countries with extreme income inequality tend to fail.

Lastly, he deals with identity. What holds us together as a nation? In Baer's view, it is the "pursuit of happiness" that Jefferson famously put into our Declaration of Independence. We should be a nation where people are free to thrive in their own way, as long as they aren't hurting anyone else. And what holds us together in that pursuit is that we live in a country that protects that. But the deal is we have to accept the democratic process that protects our freedoms. Lately, even that hasn't seemed doable.

Baer is neither an optimist nor a pessimist. He is a realist. He isn't naive about the difficulties we face in passing the four tests that he lays out. But he also reminds us of the strengths that we bring to the tasks. So this is a somewhat hopeful book.

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[Erik Brown · Rating 5 out of 5]

“Our status as a trusted actor has more of a significant impact on the strategic outlook for the U.S. than it did in an era of U.S. relative hegemony. Reversing the decisions that the United States has taken, tearing up the commitments it has made, sending a message that the United States may dramatically change its engagement with the world with each new election, reduces the United States’ credibility as a partner. It also harms our ability to make future deals. And we will need more deals in a world where we have less ability to dictate outcomes. The United States’ success requires generating the advantages of scale through alliances and partnerships rather than only through its own coercive ability; the loss of U.S. credibility is a strategic loss, it is the loss of an aspect of American power.”

“Idealists are worriers at heart. To believe in the possibility of progress toward a set of ideals is to be concerned about achieving it. To embrace agency is to carry it as a burden. But the way we think about history can cause us to be more depressed than we ought to be about the present. Progress is the product of that muddling through, of taking opportunities as they arise and not knowing when or how they will.”

[Rayna]

So refreshing to read something about American policy that was logical, self aware, and not full of fear mongering or “identity politics”. Instead of just feeling like everything is hopeless and unfixable, it was so nice to know there are actual policy changes that can be made to make our lives better.

[Kyle · Rating 5 out of 5]

Supremely intelligent and pragmatic. Dan lays out a pessimist's antidote to our current doom spiral -- how we can, slowly, without waiting for heroes, chart a path to the next phase of American history. He posits that the divisions in the country do not need to be mended for us to move forward -- rather, they need to be tempered back into debate rather than vitriol -- together to a new representation of what America could be in a hegemon-less world. It reads like a Warren campaign document with sharper realism regarding the America we exist in every day, and feels like an after-dinner conversation on the porch that makes you feel like the solutions are all within reach.

[Patrick Hackett · Rating 5 out of 5]

Dan is one of the smartest people I know — read his thoughtful and intelligent book!