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Irrational Exuberance

Robert J. Shiller

3.98 · Rating details · 6,918 ratings · 266 reviews

As Robert Shiller’s new 2009 preface to his prescient classic on behavioral economics and market volatility asserts, the irrational exuberance of the stock and housing markets “has been ended by an economic crisis of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.” As we all, ordinary Americans and professional investors alike, crawl from the wreckage of our ...more

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Paperback, Second, 304 pages

Published February 22nd 2005 by Currency (first published March 15th 2000)

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Sep 15, 2014 Geoff Noble rated it it was ok · review of another edition

I really battled to get into this book. I didn't enjoy it at all. We all know that market bubbles exist and I really don't think Robert Shiller added much to the discussion (I will no doubt come under fire here from all the fans out there). This was summed up for me in the last chapter when he listed things that could go wrong in the future. He listed every conceivable scenario in the world. While I agree that you need to consider all possibilities and investing is about probabilities, it is in ...more

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May 07, 2016 Robert P. Hoffman rated it it was amazing

This is a book that needs to be reread in order for the points to absorbed.

Shiller starts out with three chapters that present statistics showing that stocks and real estate are not investments that people can count on to earn a good long-run return. He shows that if people got into the market at the wrong time they could end up having to wait for a long time before the value of stocks returned to the price that people paid for the stocks. He shows similar statistics for real estate.

In the chapt ...more

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Mar 23, 2013 Omar Halabieh rated it really liked it

This book serves as an awakening call from "the present...whiff of extravagant expectation, if not irrational exuberance, in the air. People are optimistic about the stock market. There is a lack of sobriety about its downside and the consequences that would ensue as a result." The author advances that "we need to know if the price level of the stock market today, tomorrow, or any other day is a sensible reflection of economic reality, just as we need to know as individuals what we have in our b This book serves as an awakening call from "the present...whiff of extravagant expectation, if not irrational exuberance, in the air. People are optimistic about the stock market. There is a lack of sobriety about its downside and the consequences that would ensue as a result." The author advances that "we need to know if the price level of the stock market today, tomorrow, or any other day is a sensible reflection of economic reality, just as we need to know as individuals what we have in our bank accounts." That being said, the purpose of the book is to advance "a better understanding of the forces that shape the long-run outlook for the market."

This book covers a myriad of factors ranging from technology, to cultural to psychological that aid the formation and reinforcement of speculative bubbles. It ends with a section on implication of these findings on the various members of society whether individuals, institutions or government.

Below are key excerpts that I found particularly insightful:

1- "Many of the foregoing factors (that are candidates for causing a market boom) have a self-fulfilling aspect to them, and they are thus difficult, if not impossible, to capture in predictive scientific explanations."

2- "There are many ultimate causes for this exuberance...and the effect of these causes can be amplified by a feedback loop, a speculative bubble, as we have seen in his chapter. As prices continue to rise, the level of exuberance is enhanced by the price rise itself...The changes in thought patterns infect the entire culture and they operate not only directly from past price increases but also from auxiliary cultural changes that the past price increases helped generate."

3- "The role of the news media in the stock market is not, as commonly believed, simply as a convenient tool for investors who are reacting directly to the economically significant news itself...The news media are fundamental propagators of speculative price movements through their efforts to make news interesting to their audience. "

4- "Ends of new eras seem to be periods when the national focus of debate can no longer be upbeat. At such time, a public speaker may still think that it would be good business to extol a vision of a brilliant future for our nation's economy, but it is simply not credible to do so. One could, at such times, present a case that the economy must recover, as it always has, and that the stock market is underpriced and should go up, but public speakers who make such a case cannot achieve the command of public attention they do after a major stock run-up and economic boom. There are times when an audience is receptive to optimistic statements and times when it is not."

5- "We have explored the justification people have given, at various points in history, for changing market valuations, and we have seen evidence of the transitory nature of these cultural factors. Ultimately, however, the conclusions we draw from such evidence depend on our view of human nature and the extent of human abilities to produce consistent and independent judgements."

6- "Two kinds of psychological anchors will be considered here: quantitative anchors, which themselves give indications for the appropriate levels of the market that some people use as indications of whether the market is over-or underpriced and whether it is a good time to buy, and moral anchors, which operate by determining the strengths of the reason that compels people to buy stocks, a reason that they must weigh against their other uses for the wealth which they already have (or could have) invested in the market."

7- "The effects of new stories on the stock market sometimes have more to do with discovery of how we feel about the news than with any logical reaction to the news. We can make decisions then that would have been impossible before the news was known. It is partly for this reason that the breaking off of a psychological anchor can be so unpredictable: people discover things about themselves, about their own emotions and inclinations, only after price change occur. Psychological anchors for the market hook themselves on the strangest things along the muddy bottom of our consciousness."

8- "Rationale response to public information is not the only reason that people think similarly, nor is the use of that public information always appropriate or well reasoned."

9- "Policies that interfere with markets by shutting them down or limiting them, although under some very specific circumstances apparently useful, probably should not be high on our list of solutions to the problems caused by speculative bubbles. Speculative markets perform critical resource-allocation functions, and any interference with markets to tame bubbles interferes with these functions...Most of the thrust of our national policies to deal with speculative bubbles should take the form of facilitating more free trade, as well as greater opportunities for people to take positions in more freer markets. A good outcome can be achieved by designing better forms of social insurance and creating better financial institutions to allow the real risks to be managed more effectively. The most important thing to keep in mind as we are experiencing a speculative bubble in the stock market today is that we should not let it distract us from such important tasks." ...more

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Jan 07, 2015 Vonetta rated it really liked it

Two subjects I love: finance and psychology. Which is called behavioral finance, but whatever.

All I can say is, I read the wrong edition. Ugh. The third edition is Shiller's grand middle finger to the markets after the crash of 08/09 and subsequent recession. I should have read that instead, but this was a solid, still relevant (and eerily prophetic) blast from the past. ...more

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Sep 16, 2017 Mehrsa rated it really liked it

I read this because I got to have dinner with Shiller recently and I wanted a reminder of his theories. I wonder if it's outdated or it's still true that markets are over priced. I think he's absolutely right that they're not efficient, but is it time to sell? He said he didn't know. ...more

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Jan 31, 2021 Karen rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Considering the current Gamestop stock frenzy, this seems like a timely read.

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Aug 30, 2015 Aristidis Marousas rated it liked it

A little dry for me. I actually ended up skimming through most of it because you could get the main point of each chapter in each chapters' final paragraph.

I can see why this is a popular book, as Shiller discusses a lot of history about the stock market. However, I do not feel as though I've really learned any new aspects about the markets, besides some small details of history discussed.

If you're reading this book then you probably already know that there's more to the stock market than luck, ...more

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Jun 17, 2016 Karl rated it really liked it

This book is kind of dangerous. Shiller is wrong on the big picture but super convincing. Problem is he argues through analogies not basic principles. He puts up this analogy where

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Mar 09, 2020 Brian Yahn rated it liked it

What a time to read a book about market panics & pandemics!

It's interesting that when the market goes up, people assume it makes sense, because they're making money and they like it. But when the market goes down, they think it's an over-reaction, because they liked the higher number better -- because that was their imagined net worth.

In reality, if stocks were valued in any true sense, prices almost never make any sense. When the market goes up, it's not because of fundamentals. And when it goe ...more

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Mar 20, 2019 Yousif Al Zeera rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Shelves: yz, nonfiction

Stock market, bond market and real estate market. When, where and why in a bubble? What is psychology's role into the markets? Is it really efficient markets? In-depth coverage with historical case studies and comparison studies of trends of different markets shed loads of light into the subject. Suitable for business graduates (banking, finance, accounting, etc.). The appendix (The author's Noble Prize Speech) is a bit advanced and can be skipped in case you can't withstand too much mathematica ...more

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Aug 14, 2014 Oren rated it really liked it

Robert Shiller is my favorite person to see interviewed on economics. He chooses his words carefully, always saying the economy is unpredictable while being heralded as a prophet. No matter how many times he stares into a camera and tells people he has never predicted the future of the economy, people still believe the myths. Like Kurt Cobain yelling songs about how much he hates his job and fans while growing more popular by the hour.

So I've been wanting to read this book for years. I've read s Robert Shiller is my favorite person to see interviewed on economics. He chooses his words carefully, always saying the economy is unpredictable while being heralded as a prophet. No matter how many times he stares into a camera and tells people he has never predicted the future of the economy, people still believe the myths. Like Kurt Cobain yelling songs about how much he hates his job and fans while growing more popular by the hour.

So I've been wanting to read this book for years. I've read some of Shiller's academic papers and enjoyed them. Shiller really digs into the complete picture of economics, delving, or forging even, into the area of psychology in order to fill-out the frame. In this book, Shiller and his research associates have put huge amounts of time into looking at past significant changes in the stock and housing markets in order to try and understand them. This time included data base and internet searches for news stories including certain phrases to try and understand the prevalence of certain ideas.

One of these ideas is economic bubbles. Bubbles are those events which can't reasonably be explained by fundamental ideas of business or economics. They are agreed to be strictly events of sociology or some outside influence that suddenly causes business or market changes by extraordinary force. One of the issues of studying economics is that much of it is learned from history. Few people understand this fact. Many believe that the future of economics can be predicted or calculated/modeled with certainty. Shiller is clearly in a camp of people who don't believe that but is also, as a scholar, open to what can be learned from such calculations and models. Several bubbles are identified and attempts are made to understand or explain them in hindsight.

The efforts to employ psychology come up short for me. They get very close but don't offer satisfying results. As an example, there is a section which talks about epidemic diseases and how they spread. These models are then applied, with agreed limitations, to the spread of information. This is done to try and explain how an idea like, 'Houses never lose money" spreads through society and causes changes in prices through buying activity. These ideas all made sense but I never quite got the exact connection. The psychology was too light. Perhaps it's there, if I were to scour the notes section and references. I suspect Shiller has been quite thorough but the words themselves left me wondering, "Exactly what is the connection with psychology?" I believe it's there. Perhaps another reading is in order. I wonder what his wife, a psychologist or social scientist of some kind, thinks about his efforts to combine psychology and economics. It comes off a bit "psychology light."

The ideas of psychology and economic fundamentals are contrasted toward the middle of the book with the "efficient markets" theory. This theory essentially says that the market, in the long term, will always obey supply and demand laws. All of the people transacting to make up the economy serve to even-out lawbreaking events and therefore, the economy lends itself to predictability and, even, calculation. Shiller even admits that perhaps the reason some of his ideas show problems with the idea of an efficient market is that there hasn't been enough time to adequately, statistically signficantly, measure.

This book covers huge ground. Toward the end there is even some scathing commentary on how the United States military preference might play into future states of economy. The killing of so many people will no doubt find some retribution.

While I've leaned on Shiller's ideas and information heavily in a decision not to spend a large percentage of my net worth on a house, I came away from this book thinking intensely about how much I've leaned on the stock market. Shiller's idea of wise investing is clearly different form that espoused by the 401k support brought-in by the financial institutions holding the funds. I will look closely again at how my money is invested.

Good luck to those trying to predict the future state of the economy. Experts agree that is not the point. One can only try to learn from the past by taking reasonable actions based on fundamentals and the hypothesis that the past presents tendencies which will be repeated. Luck might swing one way or the other so best to learn as much as you can and apply the ideas so as not to be unlucky. ...more

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May 06, 2014 Anil Swarup rated it really liked it

The term "irrational exuberance" was first used by Alan Greenspan in 1996 when he perhaps perceived a bubble building up in the stock market. He did precious little to either elaborate this concept or take any step to prevent bubble from bursting as it eventually did at the turn of the century. In this seminal book, Shiller attempted to convince the reader about the existence of such irrational exuberance. He even explores the causes of such an exuberance. He delves into the history of past thre ...more

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Mar 17, 2015 Ondrej Kokes rated it really liked it

Shelves: econ

I very much enjoyed this book. It may seem a bit dry to a non-economist (and admittedly even to me, an economist), but it offers a brilliant overview on financial economics and gives you a good idea why Shiller was awarded the Nobel prize in 2013.

It also offers a nice perspective on the economic climate between recession as the second edition was published in 2005 (the third ed is out now, 2015) and so it contains new material compared to the very first edition that came out just before the .com ...more

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Jan 11, 2017 Mike Thicke rated it really liked it · review of another edition

Shelves: economics

Shiller is rare among economists both for his sense of history and his openness to engaging with other disciplines (qualities that he shares with Thomas Piketty). In the first edition of this book, published in 2000, Shiller argued that the stock market was in the midst of a bubble. What is now known as the Dot-Com Bubble ended just as it was published. In the second edition, published in 2005, Shiller argued that the housing market was overvalued. In this edition, he argues that the stock marke ...more

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Sep 11, 2015 Daniel rated it it was amazing

One of the best books on investments ever written. I wish I had read this when I was younger, rather than reading books like 'the Dow 20,000' etc. Painful lessons learnt. ...more

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Sep 15, 2017 Andy rated it liked it

Shelves: nonfiction

This was pretty interesting and well written. The 3rd edition, updated in 2014 includes material on the 2008 mortgage driven crisis and even current "state of the economy" in 2014.
Shiller speaks very lightly: he doesn't say "The economy is going to go bust." He says: his CAPE ratio for the markets (a 10-year average PE) has only been higher at 2 times in history: 1929 and 2000. And that was 2014. That's scary but you just can't predict the future. We could have a booming economy and stock market ...more

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Mar 21, 2020 James Ford rated it it was ok

Unfortunately most of the ideas in this book are now fairly basic, although I admit that at the time it was written it was probably more enlightening (this was written pre-internet trading, pre-online financials, pre-online news and blog sites, etc.). The main point is that markets are not always rational for a number of (fairly obvious) reasons. A few interesting takeaways for me:

1. "New era economic thinking": this was the one very good chapter in my opinion. This chapter discusses the fact th ...more

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May 30, 2017 Jai Gupta rated it liked it

The book gets its name and theme from the buzzwords used in Alan Greenspan's speech as the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board in 1996. It focuses on how the mood of 'irrational exuberance' is pushing up the stock prices and stretching the valuations and how the levels of the US Stock markets are way above rational. With thorough research and groundbreaking findings, Prof. Shiller convinces us about his theory of the unprecedented bubble. P/E ratios were dramatically out of line with histor ...more

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Nov 28, 2017 Omar rated it really liked it

This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers. To view it, click here.

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May 18, 2018 Samridhi Khurana rated it it was ok

It is a literature on the bubbles existing in the world of financial markets. Shiller takes us through the various bubbles that sustained themselves due to herd mentality and feedback mechanisms in the markets. The underlying message of the book is to question the efficient market hypothesis and to caution the investors against the soaring markets due to amplification effects. Apart from this key message, I found most of the content to be repetitive and redundant.

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Nov 22, 2017 Cameron rated it liked it · review of another edition

This book did not tell me a lot. Humans are irrational creatures. Our financial market shares in this irrationality, despite what experts want to tell us. Thus, we should try to hedge our bets as much as possible.

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Aug 29, 2020 Hildey rated it liked it

Shelves: finance-investing

A discussion of speculative bubbles and behavioral finance. I found the parallels drawn between biological/psychological concepts and the markets to be the most interesting especially given the current pandemic. However, there were also more than a few parts that were dry and didn't offer much new. ...more

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Nov 24, 2020 Morten Hovland rated it liked it

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Jun 12, 2019 Chris Coccaro rated it it was amazing

Shelves: finance, psychology, history

Predicting two major recessions, Shilling lays out his thoughts on the stock market - feeling very much like a systematic dismantle of the seemingly flimsy market that many in the world look up to as a marker for American status, wealth, and the direction of the country (and in some cases, the world). An excellent piece on financial psychology that predicted not one, but two different crashes.

I found myself re-reading multiple passages as while the book is dense, and sentences are long and somet ...more

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Aug 03, 2020 Steven Siswandhi rated it really liked it

Shelves: business-and-economics

The main thesis is that often stock/bond/real estate prices go up for petty reasons such as opinion or news item which has little relevance with how the fundamentals are doing. Shiller spends a lot of time exploring this theme by detailing crowd psychology. I like the final chapter where it explains that the solution is not just to impose rules, but to give people option to invest in products that will enable them to hedge their risk. Overall a good overview on how market prices behave.

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Jul 24, 2015 Vincent Li rated it really liked it · review of another edition

An excellent inbetween book. Not too academic and dry but also not too simplistic. The most complete treatment of bubbles I've read.

Shiller is a great empiricist, and tests out efficient markets hypothesis through various econometric tests and survey data. Shiller actually asks investors through extensive survey data to see what their motivations and logic is, a pretty simple but radical move from assuming them to be rationally calculating agents. Through this data Shiller shows how irrational, An excellent inbetween book. Not too academic and dry but also not too simplistic. The most complete treatment of bubbles I've read.

Shiller is a great empiricist, and tests out efficient markets hypothesis through various econometric tests and survey data. Shiller actually asks investors through extensive survey data to see what their motivations and logic is, a pretty simple but radical move from assuming them to be rationally calculating agents. Through this data Shiller shows how irrational, and self contradicting investment behavior can be. Additionally, Shiller does alot of searches through news and media in order to see if the news portion of efficient markets theory holds i.e. is there actually news that explains price movements? To my knowledge both of these attempts at gathering data are novel (and in hindsight) obvious.

An interesting take on speculative bubbles. Shiller shows (at least to my satisfaction) that 1) Bubbles in asset prices do exist and 2) We should look beyond pure financial theory to explain the behavior of bubbles. Shiller explores possible explanations for increases in asset price, and shows that at least, there is no real rational basis for certain increases in prices (looking at population growth, construction price and interest rates do not explain the housing prices for example), and that certain implications of efficient markets are violated. In particular, he could not find any news to explain large price movements, and that stock prices are too volatile compared to dividends growth (an apparent violation of the Gordon discount model).

Shiller then goes on to suggest some possible explanations for the behavior of bubbles. He argues many factors, a combination of social, psychological and cultural factors. He goes in length about feedback loops, herd behavior, word of mouth contagion, and the role of media in drawing attention to issues. Shiller discusses how certain vivid stories (in particular "new era" theories) can capture the imagination of investors and unmoor asset prices. Shiller also describes how irrational enthusiasm, mixed in with a convincing story can overwhelm quantitative fact and forecasts driving self-creating bubbles. Sometimes investors, encouraged by the raise in prices, jealous of others "success" and with a gambler's high can pile on into markets. Shiller also surveys behavioral economics, in particular anchoring, and overconfidence in their roles in bubbles. This section actually seems a bit weak to me, Shiller seems to be throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks, and some of these explanations (while I believe happen to be true) are difficult if not impossible to falsify.

Ultimately, Shiller suggests improving markets by broadening participation, encouraging opinion leaders to educate investors and reducing short constraints (for example creating markets to allow investors to short asset prices such as housing easily). An enjoyable (if somewhat technical at points) read overall. ...more

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Dec 01, 2015 Tom rated it it was amazing · review of another edition

Shelves: favorites, future-reference

The third edition of Irrational Exuberance by Shiller analyses and explains the influence of structural, cultural, and psychological factors in the creation of bubbles. The book reads as the mix of an academic economic research paper and a popular non-fiction book, and contains an abundance of useful references to prior research.

Shiller does not shy away from expressing his own view throughout the book. This is particularly useful for the reader without an advanced economic background: the figu The third edition of Irrational Exuberance by Shiller analyses and explains the influence of structural, cultural, and psychological factors in the creation of bubbles. The book reads as the mix of an academic economic research paper and a popular non-fiction book, and contains an abundance of useful references to prior research.

Shiller does not shy away from expressing his own view throughout the book. This is particularly useful for the reader without an advanced economic background: the figures and formulas in Irrational Exuberance would have otherwise been difficult to grasp.

Irrational Exuberance is an invaluable read for investors, but also particularly for economic students. Shiller explains thoroughly how the structural, cultural, and psychological factors drive markets. Such knowledge can be invaluable in navigating ones investment around markets where irrational exuberance likely persists. This may best be illustrated by this quote:

“Because of the vivid and immediate personal impression the Internet makes, people find it plausible to assume that it also has great economic importance. it is much easier to imagine the consequences of [the internet] than the consequences of, say, improved shipbuilding technology or new developments in materials science.”

The implications of this can easily be translated to the present-day. For instance, Facebook and Netflix: at the time of this writing (Jan. 1, 2016), Facebook trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 105 (mkt. cap. $310b). Netflix trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 305 (mkt. cap. $50.3b). One may wonder whether such valuations are sustainable, especially while bearing in mind that such valuations have historically been proven to be unsustainable: Jeremy Siegel, “Big-Cap Tech Stocks Are a Sucker Bet,” Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2000. Such valuations are, from a historical perspective, unsustainable - although Apple and Google have been exceptions to this rule after publication of this article.

NB: the Wall Street Journal was referenced to in the book, the addition on Apple and Google are the result of my own research, and Facebook and Netflix valuations are not mentioned in the book - I merely used them as an example of how I interpreted Irrational Exuberance.

All in all, a great read. I do not give 5/5 ratings often, and it should be interpreted as a 4.5/5 in the case of Irrational Exuberance. The only flaw in this book is its lack of consistent guidance: sometimes it felt like an collection of essays rather than one large, coherent book. Not too much weight should be put on this flaw though, the overall quality of the work is outstanding, and I highly recommend this book. ...more

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Jan 02, 2017 Henrik Haapala rated it it was amazing

Shelves: favorites, wealth, knowledge

"Thus the simple wisdom—that when one is not getting
much in dividends relative to the price one pays for stocks it is not
a good time to buy stocks—turns out to have been right historically."

"The second instance of a high price-earnings ratio occurred in
September 1929, the high point of the market in the 1920s and the
second-highest ratio of all time. After the spectacular bull market
of the 1920s, the ratio attained a value of 32.6. As we all know, the
market tumbled from this high, with a real dro ...more

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Aug 11, 2015 Mark Lawry rated it liked it · review of another edition

Perhaps I’m giving him an extra star just for winning the Nobel Prize. Shiller is clearly a brilliant man and this book is well researched. However, I’m not sure we learn anything. We’ve known of booms and busts for a long time. This book is a discussion about the efficient market theory and why markets really aren’t efficient at all. I still hold to the theory myself, knowing that it is clearly wrong at times for all the reasons found in this book.

I did get hung up on a few points. He mocks t ...more

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Dec 20, 2013 Andreas rated it liked it

Shelves: economics-etc

Irrational exuberance was a book I had been wanting to read for a very long time, so the question was: was the book worth the excitement I felt when the third edition was finally released? Well, yes and no. There are a few chapters that I thought were absolutely essential, namely the chapters in the first 100 pages of the book, including the introduction.

The second part, in which Shiller makes strange comparisons (I thought the epidemic-metaphor was not entirely appropriate), and discusses var ...more

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About Robert J. Shiller

Robert J. Shiller

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Robert James "Bob" Shiller (born Detroit, Michigan, March 29, 1946) is an American economist, academic, and best-selling author. He currently serves as the Arthur M. Okun Professor of Economics at Yale University and is a Fellow at the Yale International Center for Finance, Yale School of Management. Shiller has been a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) since 198 ...more

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“Irrational exuberance is the psychological basis of a speculative bubble. I define a speculative bubble as a situation in which news of price increases spurs investor enthusiasm, which spreads by psychological contagion from person to person, in the process amplifying stories that might justify the price increases and bringing in a larger and larger class of investors, who, despite doubts about the real value of an investment, are drawn to it partly through envy of others’ successes and partly through a gambler's excitement.” — 7 likes

“Just what is a speculative bubble? The Oxford English Dictionary defines a bubble as “anything fragile, unsubstantial, empty, or worthless; a deceptive show. From 17th c. onwards often applied to delusive commercial or financial schemes.” The problem is that words like show and scheme suggest a deliberate creation, rather than a widespread social phenomenon that is not directed by any central impresario.” — 4 likes

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