Will 2011 Be the Year of the Ebook?
At the very beginning of the year, USA Today made an announcement that made many in the publishing business take note. The week after the holidays, their top six bestsellers -- enormously popular books like Girl with the Dragon Tattoo -- sold better in ebook than in print. This makes sense, as everyone who received an ebook reader -- a Kindle, Sony Reader, Nook, iPad, and the like -- was no doubt eager to try it out. Additionally, who wants to brave the cold to go shopping for a physical book the week after Christmas when many bookworms had likely already unwrapped a month's worth of reading. Of course ebooks sold better than print that week.
But what if the jump in ebook sales is more indicative of a larger trend? What if 2011 is going to be the year that ebooks make "the leap" and become the dominant form of reading? We thought it might be illuminating to look at the growth of ebooks on Goodreads over the past two years as an indication for where we're headed.
To look at the rise of ebooks on Goodreads, we started by checking the total number of reviews posted to Goodreads for each of the three major formats (audiobooks are a pretty distant fourth, so we didn't include those numbers). The trouble with this approach is that Goodreads has been growing at such a rapid rate that the numbers of reviews is rising. To account for the growth of Goodreads itself, we decided instead to look at what percentage of reviews are tied to the ebook edition, as opposed to the paperback or the hardcover. The numbers were somewhat interesting. Here are the graphs for paperbacks, hardcovers, and ebooks from January 2009 to December 2010:
Paperbacks:
Hardcovers:
Ebooks:
As you can see, ebooks are clearly on the rise. They currently represent a little under 4% of the total reviews on Goodreads, so while paperbacks and hardcovers are still much more popular, ebooks are gaining ground. There are a few caveats here, as there are with any set of data. First, not everyone on Goodreads shelves exactly the edition they are reading at that moment. As you can see from this poll, better than half of responders don't shelve the exact edition of their book. In fact, most shelve an edition with the same cover as theirs. This no doubt skews our data on editions somewhat. If you assume that only 40% of people are adding the specific edition, the number of ebook readers out there is likely much higher. The other caveat is that many of most our data sources were not providing the actual ebook editions via their APIs and data feeds at the beginning of 2009. By the end of 2010, most were. It stands to reason that with the actual ebook editions available for the first time, we would see a rise in the number of people choosing those editions, which indeed we do.
But even if we assume that ebooks represent, says, 8% of the reviews on Goodreads, that means that physical books are still much more popular than ebooks. This makes sense, as even though USA Today found ebook sales to be outpacing print sales for the most popular books, it made no such claim about the market as a whole. Most industry analysts have put ebook marketshare at anywhere from 3% to 10%, meaning that our numbers are more or less in line with theirs.
Still, a jump from less than 1% to nearly 4% (and likely higher) is a significant increase in activity. From the three format graphs, we can see that most of this is coming at the expense of paperbacks. We thought it might be interesting to look at who is reading these ebooks. Just for fun, here are the graphs of the reviews by format for women and men.
Women:
Men:
As you can see, women seem to be adopting ebooks at a faster rate than their male counterparts. Not coincidentally, women are also reading fewer paperbacks than they were a year ago, while men have read hardcovers and paperbacks at roughly consistent rates. If these graphs are an accurate representation of the current book reading (and book buying) market, then it would appear that it's the paperbacks more than hardcovers that are losing ground to their electronic brethren. This is somewhat surprising, as many ebook sales seem to happen during the first weeks of a book's release, the time usually reserved for hardcover sales. It's possible that the paperback slippage is due to avid readers -- those who have read 50 or more books in the past year -- switching from paperbacks to ebooks. This makes some sense, as readers who read more stand to benefit the most from switching to ebooks, while a light reader might not read enough to offset the cost of a device.
The numbers back this up, to a degree. Goodreads members who rated 20 or fewer books last year posted an average of 3.0% of their reviews on ebook editions. Members who rated 21-50 books last year posted 2.8% of their reviews to ebooks. But users who rated more than 50 books last year posted 3.8% of their reviews to ebook editions. These very active readers are clearly the vanguard of ebook consumption.
How about you? Have you changed your reading habits in the last year? Are you reading more ebooks, or are you a fan of the physical?
But what if the jump in ebook sales is more indicative of a larger trend? What if 2011 is going to be the year that ebooks make "the leap" and become the dominant form of reading? We thought it might be illuminating to look at the growth of ebooks on Goodreads over the past two years as an indication for where we're headed.
To look at the rise of ebooks on Goodreads, we started by checking the total number of reviews posted to Goodreads for each of the three major formats (audiobooks are a pretty distant fourth, so we didn't include those numbers). The trouble with this approach is that Goodreads has been growing at such a rapid rate that the numbers of reviews is rising. To account for the growth of Goodreads itself, we decided instead to look at what percentage of reviews are tied to the ebook edition, as opposed to the paperback or the hardcover. The numbers were somewhat interesting. Here are the graphs for paperbacks, hardcovers, and ebooks from January 2009 to December 2010:
Paperbacks:

Hardcovers:

Ebooks:

As you can see, ebooks are clearly on the rise. They currently represent a little under 4% of the total reviews on Goodreads, so while paperbacks and hardcovers are still much more popular, ebooks are gaining ground. There are a few caveats here, as there are with any set of data. First, not everyone on Goodreads shelves exactly the edition they are reading at that moment. As you can see from this poll, better than half of responders don't shelve the exact edition of their book. In fact, most shelve an edition with the same cover as theirs. This no doubt skews our data on editions somewhat. If you assume that only 40% of people are adding the specific edition, the number of ebook readers out there is likely much higher. The other caveat is that many of most our data sources were not providing the actual ebook editions via their APIs and data feeds at the beginning of 2009. By the end of 2010, most were. It stands to reason that with the actual ebook editions available for the first time, we would see a rise in the number of people choosing those editions, which indeed we do.
But even if we assume that ebooks represent, says, 8% of the reviews on Goodreads, that means that physical books are still much more popular than ebooks. This makes sense, as even though USA Today found ebook sales to be outpacing print sales for the most popular books, it made no such claim about the market as a whole. Most industry analysts have put ebook marketshare at anywhere from 3% to 10%, meaning that our numbers are more or less in line with theirs.
Still, a jump from less than 1% to nearly 4% (and likely higher) is a significant increase in activity. From the three format graphs, we can see that most of this is coming at the expense of paperbacks. We thought it might be interesting to look at who is reading these ebooks. Just for fun, here are the graphs of the reviews by format for women and men.
Women:

Men:

As you can see, women seem to be adopting ebooks at a faster rate than their male counterparts. Not coincidentally, women are also reading fewer paperbacks than they were a year ago, while men have read hardcovers and paperbacks at roughly consistent rates. If these graphs are an accurate representation of the current book reading (and book buying) market, then it would appear that it's the paperbacks more than hardcovers that are losing ground to their electronic brethren. This is somewhat surprising, as many ebook sales seem to happen during the first weeks of a book's release, the time usually reserved for hardcover sales. It's possible that the paperback slippage is due to avid readers -- those who have read 50 or more books in the past year -- switching from paperbacks to ebooks. This makes some sense, as readers who read more stand to benefit the most from switching to ebooks, while a light reader might not read enough to offset the cost of a device.
The numbers back this up, to a degree. Goodreads members who rated 20 or fewer books last year posted an average of 3.0% of their reviews on ebook editions. Members who rated 21-50 books last year posted 2.8% of their reviews to ebooks. But users who rated more than 50 books last year posted 3.8% of their reviews to ebook editions. These very active readers are clearly the vanguard of ebook consumption.
How about you? Have you changed your reading habits in the last year? Are you reading more ebooks, or are you a fan of the physical?
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Caitlin (Ayashi)
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Jan 26, 2011 10:20AM

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When an e-book sells, the publisher still gets the $$, the author gets a (often minimal) royalty. And the reader gets the pleasure of reading the exact same book (hopefully--e-books are often abysmally edited and proofed) as is released in print. So what's lost? Not a thing.


I read a lot of ebooks, but I'm not very good at remembering to select the ebook edition when I'm rating a title. If I'm typical, then the results may be better than they look.
I wonder if anything could be done to make it easier for people to enter it accurately? Perhaps letting you specify in your profile a default edition type - so as I normally read ebooks, it would be good if ebook editions are selected automatically by default, without me needing to remember?

Since I got my Nook for Christmas (not long), I haven't ready any paperbacks/hardbacks at all. And aside from the ones I already have stocked up to read, I don't intend to. I'll probably go all ebook from now on. It's more convenient, doesn't take up any space at home, and is cheaper anyway!







![[ A ]](https://images.gr-assets.com/users/1253302100p1/2641450.jpg)
More than half of the reading experience is the book itself. Cover art & design, typeface choices, typeface color, paper texture, paper color, linespacing, etc. The book itself is a work of art which is completely lost in the concept of the ebook. You cannot collect ebooks and display them on shelves, to glance over and touch, feel the pages, see the spine and remember the reading experience fondly.
You cannot smell ebooks, or discover a rare, old copy in a bookstore.

I just published my first novel, Mrs. Tuesday's Departure, on the kindle platform and wanted to list it in Goodreads' giveaway forum but found out they don't allow ebooks?!
Please change this policy!
Thank you,
Suzanne AndersonMrs. Tuesday's Departure



More than half of the reading experience is the book itself. Cover art & design, typeface choices, typeface color,..."
I totally agree 100% Nothing beats the feel and smell of the actual book! While I can see the advantage of an ebook for storage space, If I truly run out of room, I have the option of putting old books in a garage sale or donating them to a local library (two things you cannot do with an ebook)

Good question. I can't really explain it. The date for that spike is August 3, 2010. It's not near any major holidays (at least, not in the US). My guess is that it's a fluke, but I'm not sure. In raw numbers, the previous days saw 2300 and 5200 ebook reviews. On 8/3/10, there were 11000 ebook reviews posted. So in three days, ebook reviews shot up about 5 times. They then immediately went back to 8/1/10 levels: 2800 reviews and 2400 reviews, respectively on 8/4 and 8/5. Very odd.
I would have guessed that it was because of data clean-up (perhaps several editions were merged, generating a bunch of reviews that weren't actually all posted on that day), but the bump is actually two days long, which seems to suggest this wasn't the case.


On Goodreads, I shelve the edition I own. When I write my review on my blog, I use the coverart image of the copy I am actually reading. What's going to be interesting for me is shelving a book I already own in paper, but reading it on the Nook. In these situations, I will most likely shelve it as the paper format.



More than half of the reading experience is the book itself. Cover art & design, typeface choices, typeface color,..."
Why must it be an all-or-nothing thing? Isn't it a bit like saying "I only watch TV, I don't listen to radio and I have no intention of ever changing. Because I prefer to see what is happening not just hear".
Surely it's better to say that they are different things, both with their own strengths and weaknesses.
Sometimes a paper book is a good fit, other times an ebook is a good fit. Use whatever suits a particular situation and your needs - of course. But don't assume that one or the other being the best fit for one person in one particular situation makes it therefore the definitive absolute best and the other one bad.


That's precisely the approach I'm taking to the ebook evolution. I also love physical books, but the books that are of that caliber that Amanda(JT) referenced are not the everyday paperback. I find an ebook on par with the inexpensive mass market paperback, and for me it seems to be a better environmental choice with little loss of that quality book experience.
I have consciously tried to slow my acquisition of print books, reading through the library first and then purchasing those books that I love and want to return to again and again. My nook will allow me to check out ebooks from my library (although not as many as I'd like, not yet) but I will still invest in books that I love for my home library.
It also appears to me that there is a rise in hardback reviews, so perhaps others are taking this approach as well?

Yeah I'm glad that the Kindle edition has pages listed, because I still like to have the pages being tracked for my stats and stuff. Even if I am digitally flipping those pages, there are pages damn it! :)

More than half of the reading experience is the book itself. Cover art & design, typeface choices, typeface color,..."
Nail on the head. The book is a physical experience. The story is the act, but the book is the stage. The feel of the paper, the printed words, the smell, and the line of books on the shelf.
I spend most of my workday looking at a computer screen. I find it comforting to hold a book and turn the page in the evening.

As a bookseller in an Indie Bookstore, my job is lost as are the people who love to browse bookstores. Most of them are closing at a faster rate than ever. I hate ebooks.

Indie bookstores have been closing as the market has been dominated by the huge booksellers like Barnes & Noble and online booksellers like Amazon. Ebooks are still less than 10 percent of the total market, so I doubt that ebooks alone are responsible for the death of indie bookstores. Given the choice I'd prefer to purchase from a small local seller and generally do, when I purchase a book in print. I can't afford to buy every book I read in a high quality hardcover edition, any more than I can afford to purchase every book I read in a paperback edition or ebook edition. Many have also predicted the death of the library, but my library is more active than ever, adding ebooks to their collections rather than eliminating physical books from the shelves, and (at least according the the staff at my library) is helping bring more customers into the library physically.
I would think indie booksellers would suffer most in a tough economy. My experience with indie booksellers is that the same title will cost more there than at a big box retailer or Amazon. In a tight economy, more people are turning to less expensive options for their purchases, or not purchasing at all (another reason for my library's overflowing parking lots and large waiting lists for popular books: Amy Chua's "Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother" has 279 people waiting for their turn at one of seven copies). Ebooks aren't the sole reason for the unfortunate loss of small booksellers.




I must say-- I DO NOT pay attention to the edition, or if it is listed as an ebook or not. I just select that I am reading this book and that does it for me. I would be one to skew the results-- but not on purpose!
message 38:
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Petra X leaving on a jet plane, don't know when...
(last edited Jan 27, 2011 07:34PM)
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My year-end figures surprised me, I thought I was way down on the previous year, but actually I was up 10%. Not as good as three years ago, before the recession, but not so bad either. I have lost a lot of fiction business - almost certainly to Kindles.
Amazon selling books beneath distributors' prices has obviously hurt all booksellers, Amazon go in for loss leaders as a way of wrecking other businesses, online and bricks and mortar and thereby gaining customers who find them a) cheaper than other online sellers and b) the only place as their local little bookshop has now closed down. Amazon have extremely restrictive rules for people who sell on its site (Marketplace included). They are not allowed to sell anywhere on or offline for less than the price they sell on Amazon, not even for a sale or a special offer. This doesn't mean you get the guaranteed lowest price - people form separate companies to sell on Alibris and other dealers' sites where you will get a much better deal on postage if nothing else.
What will be lost by the spread of ebooks and online bookselling (in all media) is that you have to know what you are looking for in order to find it, unless you stumble across it by accident. A bricks and mortar bookstore has buyers who are on the look out all the time for interesting books that have little or perhaps no publicity whatsoever. Indie bookstores love their customers and nurture them and look out for books to interest them as individuals. Browsing online you see mostly what the site wants you to see, what has been paid for to be promoted. Goodreads is great in that respect, so many people reviewing and suggesting so many different books.

Why do you say that? There are huge numbers of ebooks available for free. I have (or have read) probably 100+ ebooks, and I paid for precisely 2.


Wow, as an author, you must be hoping that more than 2 people in a 100 pay for your work!

In general, if I'm paying for a book, I prefer paperback. Many people do buy ebooks, but claiming that "most ebooks are paid for" -- especially with more and more libraries that offer ebooks to borrow -- is something I'd like to see proof to back up if you're going to claim it.

When it comes to purchasing, my ideal situation would be to have an option between paper, ebook, or a slightly higher price for a combo deal. Books from my favorite authors, especially those with great covers, would be wonderful to have in both formats. But as it is, I'm willing to pay for the convenience of the ebook format that helps my physical problems and that's where my few book spending dollars go. And I do try to put the correct edition on my shelves, but some of my older books are not correct. It would help if we could choose editions using the mobile site or iPhone app instead of only using the full site.

There are still a few authors I buy in hardcover. My paperback purchases have dropped abruptly, though. Part of the reason is my irrational dislike of the trade paperback format, which has become much more common in recent years. Trades are more expensive, and I've been so used to mass market paperbacks over the years that I tend to prefer ebooks over trade editions.
I've heard complaints about reading from a screen, and I'd share them if e-ink wasn't so easy on the eyes. I could never do ebooks from a laptop or other LCD screen.

![[ A ]](https://images.gr-assets.com/users/1253302100p1/2641450.jpg)

Amanda, I so strongly agree with you. Books are so wonderful, warm. Can't picture the future without them. To snuggle up on a cold night by the fire with an ereader just wouldn't be the same.

I can't agree with him, not entirely. There are many books I will not care to own, whether in ebook or paper, because I won't read them twice. I'm willing to use my Nook for those kind of books. I also like the possibility of the Nook as another method of taking books with me when traveling without sacrificing space and weight. I'd love to be able to carry all the Harry Potter books with me when I go on vacation, so I can read one whenever I want, rather than bringing them all with me. But I will never give up the hardbound set of Potter books I own! The books I want to read over and over will be in my print collection, ideally in hardbound. Paperbacks just don't have the same appeal to me.
I wonder if there are ways for the small independent bookstore to incorporate sales of ebooks into their business plans? I think ebooks are here to stay, so how can an indie store be helped by them?