3D Printing: Don’t Believe the Hype (cycle)?
When examined according to user base, 3D Printing is entering two distinctive phases.
Enterprise level 3D Printing has established itself as a dominant force in rapid-prototyping and rapid retooling. In the aerospace industry major companies make use of the technology to keep their fleets aloft and to research and develop aircraft of the future. Smaller companies have found niches within this market, such as those who manufacture replacement parts for cabins. When mass-production of spares ceases, maintenance work on older aircraft does not have to stall.
In addition, through techniques such as honeycombing the 3D printed replacements can improve upon original designs, adding strength at a fraction of the weight. Even small weight reductions accumulate across a fleet into vast reductions in aviation fuel bills.
GE recognized the contribution to the bottom-line 3D printing makes. In 2013 they acquired two specialist small 3D printing companies and have incorporated their technology into the GE Aviation entity.
Classic car enthusiasts have also benefited from an increase in availability of spares produced using additive manufacturing. Entrepreneurs have started businesses to support this niche market and some have recreated entire classic vehicles using the technology. The 3D printing market holds many other entrepreneurial opportunities.
While enterprise level 3D printing is entering what Gartner refer to as the “slope of enlightenment”, where early innovations and inventions are becoming monetized, the consumer phase lags behind. Initially driven by hobbyist forums and communities, entry level machines that are useable without an engineering qualification are dropping in price and capable of producing interesting results.
Currently, these results lag behind the expectations of the general public. During 2014 3D printing is likely to reach the peak of these inflated expectations. We expect to see a following period of consolidation in the consumer market while entrants recover from the initial burst of enthusiasm and re-emerge with devices ready for mass-market acceptance.
However, systems are always susceptible to shocks. The emergence of an irresistible killer application could jolt 3D printing from its current trajectory, and as the user base expands more creative minds are pondering its potential. 2014 could still hold some surprises.
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