From shutdown to surge: How macro relief is lifting crypto and equities

Anndy Lian
From shutdown to surge: How macro relief is lifting crypto and equities

Equity markets hover at critical technical junctures while macroeconomic headwinds, particularly the spectre of a prolonged US government shutdown, have only just begun to recede. Cryptocurrency markets, deeply intertwined with broader risk sentiment, have rebounded modestly, buoyed by improved macro conditions and renewed institutional interest in Layer 1 infrastructure. Beneath the surface, divergences in both traditional and digital asset markets suggest that the current calm may be temporary and highly contingent on incoming data, policy developments, and capital flows that remain in flux.

Equity markets continue to tread carefully around key technical support levels. The S&P 500, a bellwether for global investor sentiment, finds itself sandwiched between its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, zones that often act as fulcrums between continuation and reversal. Although recent price action has been subdued, the possibility of a year-end rally persists, especially given the surprisingly strong third-quarter earnings results that delivered a 15 per cent year-over-year profit growth across the index. This strength is increasingly concentrated and increasingly fragile.

The so-called Magnificent 7, once a monolithic engine of market returns, now exhibit stark performance divergence. Tesla, emblematic of this fragmentation, encapsulates the broader uncertainty. Analyst forecasts span from bullish projections of a 6x price surge to bearish scenarios anticipating steep corrections. Such volatility in outlook underscores a market increasingly sceptical of uniform growth assumptions and more attuned to company-specific fundamentals, execution risk, and macro dependencies.

This skepticism is well-founded. While optimism around artificial intelligence remains intact, particularly in the context of long-term structural transformation, the near-term outlook for capital expenditure shows signs of potential deceleration. The year 2026 may witness a slowdown in AI-related capex, especially in downstream sectors where valuations appear stretched relative to near-term revenue visibility.

Compounding this risk is the fact that many of the Magnificent 7 remain deeply tethered to consumer behavior, whether through digital advertising, cloud services, or hardware sales. Should broader economic conditions falter, driven by persistent inflation, tighter credit conditions, or geopolitical shocks, their vaunted cash flow strength could erode faster than anticipated. Investors would be wise to adopt a selective approach, distinguishing between companies with resilient business models and those riding speculative momentum.

Currency markets add another layer of complexity. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which had been testing the psychologically significant 100 level, pulled back slightly to 99.60 following news of a Senate resolution to end the 40-day government shutdown. The dollar remains strong, and positioning appears crowded. Such crowding increases the risk of sharp reversals should upcoming macro data or, more likely, signals from the Federal Reserve shift market expectations. A stronger dollar typically acts as a headwind for US multinational earnings and emerging market assets alike, and its influence on capital flows cannot be overstated. In the context of crypto, where dollar strength often inversely correlates with asset prices, this dynamic remains a critical variable.

Global themes further complicate the narrative. China’s strategic push into humanoid robotics, exemplified by XPENG’s IRON project, signals a broader ambition to dominate next-generation industrial and consumer technologies. Simultaneously, Chinese companies are accelerating overseas expansion, challenging incumbents in markets from Southeast Asia to Latin America. India, by contrast, has underperformed relative to both China and Japan, raising questions about its near-term growth inflexion and policy responsiveness. In such an environment, a barbell strategy, combining exposure to large-cap growth leaders with defensively positioned, dividend-paying equities, offers a prudent approach to navigating regional and sectoral divergences.

The macro backdrop improved meaningfully over the weekend with the Senate’s bipartisan agreement to end the government shutdown, the longest in US history. This resolution directly addresses a significant source of liquidity drain. Since October 10, approximately US$700 billion in economic activity has been disrupted or delayed, constraining both consumer and institutional risk appetite. With the shutdown concluded, capital can begin to reallocate toward risk assets, a dynamic already reflected in the 4.83 per cent 24-hour gain in crypto markets following a 3.94 per cent weekly loss. Bitcoin’s 0.70 seven-day correlation with the S&P 500 underscores how tightly crypto remains linked to traditional market sentiment. Relief in one arena quickly transmits to the other.

Layer 1 ecosystems have emerged as a focal point of this renewed optimism. Solana’s 4.42 per cent sector gain was catalysed by Western Union’s announcement that it will launch a US dollar stablecoin exclusively on Solana in the first quarter of 2026. This is not a speculative foray but a strategic institutional endorsement of Solana’s scalability and throughput.

Similarly, Ethereum received a significant vote of confidence through EigenCloud’s US$200 million deployment of ETH-based infrastructure to support AI systems. These developments indicate that blockchain is no longer merely a speculative playground but an operational backbone for real-world financial and technological infrastructure. Institutional adoption of this magnitude validates the long-term utility of high-performance Layer 1 networks and draws capital toward ecosystems demonstrating clear use cases and execution capability.

Technically, the crypto market rebounded from oversold territory, with the 14-day RSI at 37.4 signalling exhaustion among sellers. Bitcoin retested its 50-week moving average near the US$103,000 level, a zone that often acts as a magnet for price action. Spot trading volume rose 14 per cent to US$159 billion, while derivatives open interest climbed 5.76 per cent, suggesting that traders are cautiously re-engaging.

This optimism remains tempered. Ethereum ETFs recorded US$466 million in outflows on November 7 alone, highlighting persistent institutional scepticism toward ETH despite its technological advancements. Moreover, the market must sustain a close above the seven-day simple moving average at US$3.46 trillion in total market cap to confirm bullish momentum. Failure to do so could trigger a retest of the US$3.37 trillion Fibonacci support level.

Gold’s rise to US$4,007 per ounce amid dollar softening and shutdown-related uncertainty further illustrates the fragile nature of current sentiment. Safe-haven demand remains elevated, even as risk assets rally. This duality, bullish price action coexisting with defensive positioning, is a hallmark of late-cycle or transitional market regimes.

Whether Bitcoin can hold above US$105,000 in this environment depends not only on technicals but on broader macro confirmation. Sustained liquidity normalisation, stable dollar conditions, and continued institutional validation of blockchain infrastructure must all align. Until those pillars solidify, the relief rally, while welcome, should be approached with disciplined risk management and selective exposure.

Source: https://e27.co/from-shutdown-to-surge-how-macro-relief-is-lifting-crypto-and-equities-20251110/

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