No CPI, no confidence: How data paralysis is fueling crypto’s November slide

The macro landscape this week sits in a state of suspended animation, defined less by new developments than by their absence. At the heart of this inertia is the ongoing US government shutdown, which began on October 1 and has now stretched into its sixth week, becoming the longest in the nation’s history. This institutional paralysis has created a critical data void, most notably delaying the release of the October Consumer Price Index report that was originally scheduled for Thursday, November 13.

The White House has even conceded that this key inflation gauge for October may never be officially released, leaving a permanent blind spot in the economic record. This vacuum of information forces markets to anchor their expectations on whatever data trickles out, elevating the importance of tonight’s release of weekly initial jobless claims, which are expected to show a figure of 218,000 for the week ending November 8.

In this context of uncertainty, risk sentiment has turned cautious. US equities closed mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow showing modest strength while the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined, a divergence that speaks to a subtle but important rotation within the market. This caution was also evident in the Treasury market, where yields edged lower as investors welcomed tentative signs of progress in Congress toward a resolution that would reopen the government. The 10-year yield’s retreat to 4.06 per cent reflects this flight to safety and a renewed hope for a political compromise. The US Dollar Index, for its part, remained largely flat, closing at 99.47, signaling that traders are in a holding pattern, unwilling to make significant directional bets until the political fog lifts and the next concrete piece of economic data arrives.

The crypto market, however, has been unable to insulate itself from this broader macro malaise. It has fallen a further 0.56 per cent over the last 24 hours, a move that extends a more painful 11.7 per cent monthly decline. This persistent weakness is not a single-factor event but rather a perfect storm of three distinct, reinforcing pressures: a clear pattern of institutional profit-taking, a sharp contagion event in the derivatives market, and an uncomfortably tight correlation with the performance of US tech stocks.

The first of these bearish forces is institutional retrenchment. While spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a major structural support for the market since their launch, their influence has waned in recent weeks. Data from trackers shows a clear trend of capital flight, with the total assets under management for these funds dropping from a recent high of around US$140.7 billion to US$138.9 billion over a single week, a decline of 8.7 per cent. This outflow is more than a simple portfolio rebalance; it signals a deeper shift in sentiment among large, sophisticated players. As the 10x Research CEO warned, a sense of fatigue has set in, driven by Bitcoin’s notable underperformance in 2025 relative to both the soaring price of gold and the resilient gains in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. For institutions that bought the post-ETF approval rally, the current environment offers a compelling reason to trim their exposure and lock in what gains remain.

The second pressure point is a stark reminder of the fragility embedded in the crypto ecosystem’s leverage. The US$63 million liquidation cascade on the Popcat memecoin, centered on the Hyperliquid exchange, was not an isolated incident but a canary in the coal mine. This single event triggered a broader wave of deleveraging across the entire crypto market, evidenced by a 14.7 per cent drop in total open interest. This is the process of overextended, speculative positions, particularly in the volatile altcoin sector, being forcibly closed out, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of selling that spills over into the entire asset class. The subsequent cooling of perpetual funding rates, which fell by 41 per cent in just 24 hours, confirms a sharp and sudden reduction in speculative appetite. The market is in a defensive crouch.

The third and perhaps most inescapable headwind is crypto’s persistent and powerful link to traditional equities, specifically the Nasdaq-100. The market’s 24-hour price action has shown a correlation of 0.88 with the Nasdaq-100, its strongest link to the index since March 2025. This statistic is a powerful testament to the fact that, for all its claims of being a separate, uncorrelated asset, crypto remains a risk asset first and foremost. Its fate is now inextricably tied to the same macro forces that move the markets for Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Therefore, any pre-market weakness in the Nasdaq, such as the 1.2 per cent drop seen on Thursday, driven by fears over sticky inflation and a more hawkish Federal Reserve, will inevitably be mirrored in a retreat across the crypto board.

In conclusion, the market’s current malaise is a confluence of its own internal dynamics and the external macroeconomic environment. The derivatives market is in a state of recovery from its recent squeeze, with perpetual funding rates having turned slightly positive again at plus 0.0014 per cent. However, this technical stabilisation is overshadowed by a collapse in market confidence, as evidenced by the Fear and Greed Index plunging into the Extreme Fear territory at a reading of 25.

The path forward is clouded by the absence of the CPI data, but its eventual release or its continued absence will be a critical test. The key question on every trader’s mind is whether Bitcoin can hold the critical psychological and technical support level of US$100,000 if the October inflation data, when it finally emerges, shows a year-over-year increase that exceeds the 3.4 per cent threshold, which would likely cement a risk-off posture across all markets.

Until then, all assets remain chained to this unprecedented political and data-driven uncertainty.

Source: https://e27.co/no-cpi-no-confidence-how-data-paralysis-is-fueling-cryptos-november-slide-20251113/