Diverging signals: Dow rises, gold breaks records, and crypto faces derivatives squeeze
Anndy Lian
Diverging signals: Dow rises, gold breaks records, and crypto faces derivatives squeeze
As the United States inches closer to a federal government shutdown, with no resolution in sight after talks between congressional leaders and President Donald Trump ended without progress on Monday, investors are navigating a complex web of signals.
Wall Street stays resilient amid shutdown fearsDespite the looming administrative paralysis, Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday, extending its winning streak into a second consecutive quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2 per cent, the S&P 500 gained 0.4 per cent, and the Nasdaq added 0.3 per cent.
This resilience suggests that market participants either believe the shutdown will be short-lived or have already priced in its limited economic impact, given that past shutdowns have rarely derailed broader market trends for long.
Treasury yields and gold signal investor anxietyBeneath the surface, subtle shifts in asset prices reveal deeper unease. US Treasury yields moved in opposite directions, reflecting a classic flight-to-quality dynamic mixed with short-term policy uncertainty. The 10-year yield inched up by one basis point to 4.148 per cent, while the 2-year yield fell by two basis points to 3.612 per cent.
This flattening of the yield curve often signals that investors expect near-term economic disruptions, such as a government shutdown, to weigh on growth, even if longer-term inflation or fiscal concerns remain elevated. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index declined 0.1 per cent to 97.8, indicating a modest retreat in safe-haven demand for the greenback.
In contrast, gold surged 0.6 per cent to a record high of US$3,858.18 per ounce, underscoring its enduring role as a hedge against political and institutional instability. The precious metal’s ascent to unprecedented levels speaks volumes about the depth of investor anxiety, even as equities hold firm.
Oil and Asian markets reflect fragile demandCommodities tell a different story. Brent crude oil dropped 1.4 per cent to US$67 per barrel, pressured by expectations that OPEC+ may accelerate its planned output increases in the coming months. This potential supply boost comes at a time when global demand outlooks remain fragile, particularly with China, the world’s largest oil importer, entering its week-long National Day holiday.
Asian equities reflected this caution, trading mixed on Tuesday and lower in early sessions on Wednesday, with mainland China and Hong Kong markets shuttered for the festivities. The absence of Chinese participation in regional trading has amplified volatility and reduced liquidity, leaving other markets more exposed to external shocks, including developments in Washington and shifts in US monetary policy expectations.
Crypto faces a risk-off correctionThe crypto market declined 0.51 per cent over the past 24 hours, aligning with the broader theme of risk-off behaviour and profit-taking following recent rallies. Two distinct forces are shaping this correction: regulatory evolution and the dynamics of the derivatives market.
On the regulatory front, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued new guidance allowing state-chartered trust companies, such as those operated by Coinbase, to act as custodians for investment advisers managing crypto assets.
At first glance, this appears to be a significant step toward institutional legitimacy. Long-term, it could pave the way for greater participation from traditional finance players who have long cited custody as a primary barrier to entry.
However, the guidance comes with stringent requirements, including mandatory annual audits and strict asset segregation protocols. These conditions have sparked operational concerns among crypto firms, many of which now face the prospect of higher compliance costs and structural overhauls.
As a result, the short-term market reaction has been one of caution rather than celebration. The progress is real, but the path to implementation remains uncertain, and the industry is watching closely for follow-up rule-making and clarity on adoption timelines from major platforms.
Simultaneously, the derivatives market is flashing warning signs. Perpetual futures open interest, a key gauge of leveraged positioning, fell by 5.48 per cent even as trading volume surged by 16.78 per cent. This divergence suggests that traders are actively unwinding leveraged long positions rather than initiating new ones. Compounding the pressure, average funding rates spiked to 0.0068, a staggering 354 per cent increase over 24 hours.
In perpetual futures markets, funding rates represent the cost of maintaining leveraged positions; when they turn sharply positive, it often indicates excessive bullish sentiment that becomes unsustainable. The recent surge suggests that longs were willing to pay a premium to stay in the market, creating a fragile equilibrium that ultimately collapsed under the weight of profit-taking and margin calls.
Notably, US$50 million in liquidations hit the XPL token alone, highlighting how concentrated leverage in smaller altcoins can amplify broader market selloffs. Historically, such spikes in funding rates precede heightened volatility, and if rates turn persistently negative, it could signal a deeper bearish shift as shorts dominate the market.
The current dip in crypto prices thus reflects a tug-of-war between structural progress and cyclical risk reduction. On one side, regulatory clarity around custody could eventually unlock billions in institutional capital, particularly if traditional asset managers gain confidence in secure, compliant infrastructure.
On the other hand, traders are aggressively trimming exposure in anticipation of near-term headwinds not just from potential SEC enforcement actions but also from macro crosscurrents like the US government shutdown and shifting Treasury dynamics.
This tension is further exacerbated by outflows from crypto ETFs, which have seen US$418 million exit Bitcoin funds and US$248 million leave Ethereum products recently. These outflows suggest that even regulated vehicles are not immune to sentiment swings, and that spot market demand may be insufficient to absorb the selling pressure from leveraged traders and cautious institutions alike.
The weeks aheadLooking ahead, the critical support level for Bitcoin sits at US$113,000. A decisive break below this threshold could trigger further technical selling, especially if derivatives markets remain unstable.
Conversely, holding above this level might attract bargain hunters, particularly if the SEC’s custody framework begins to translate into tangible institutional inflows. Altcoins like Aster and Hyperbot face additional challenges due to supply-side constraints, which could either cushion their downside or exacerbate volatility depending on market liquidity.
Ultimately, the next few weeks will test whether the cryptocurrency market can decouple from macroeconomic noise and regulatory ambiguity, or whether it remains tethered to the same risk calculus that governs traditional assets. For now, prudence prevails, and the record highs in gold alongside muted equity gains suggest that even in a world of rising asset prices, uncertainty remains the dominant currency.
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