The great divergence: How US inflation, jobless claims, and crypto charts are clashing ahead of the Fed’s big decision
Anndy Lian
The great divergence: How US inflation, jobless claims, and crypto charts are clashing ahead of the Fed’s big decision
As the calendar flips to September 12, 2025, financial markets around the world hum with a mix of optimism and caution, driven by recent economic data that has solidified expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy moves.
Global risk sentiment remains broadly positive, with Asian equities edging close to all-time highs in early trading sessions, buoyed by encouraging signals from US inflation figures and labour market indicators. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets have taken the lead in this upward push, reflecting renewed investor confidence amid hopes for monetary easing.
Meanwhile, US stock futures point to a flat opening, suggesting a pause after the previous day’s gains, where the S&P 500 climbed 0.9 per cent, the Nasdaq advanced 0.7 per cent, and the Dow Jones surged 1.4 per cent. This rally in US equities stems largely from growing anticipation that the Fed will deliver an interest rate cut at its September 17 meeting. This move could inject fresh liquidity into risk assets and extend the current uptrend.
Looking into the latest US economic releases, the August consumer price index revealed a nuanced picture of inflation dynamics. Core prices, which strip out volatile food and energy components, increased by 0.3 per cent monthly and 3.1 per cent year-over-year, aligning closely with economist projections and signalling that underlying inflationary pressures remain contained but persistent.
Headline CPI ticked up by 0.4 per cent in August, marking an acceleration from prior months and pushing the annual rate to 2.9 per cent, the highest since early 2025. This uptick can be attributed in part to businesses preemptively passing on costs related to anticipated tariffs under the Trump administration’s trade policies, which have begun to ripple through supply chains and consumer goods pricing.
Concurrently, weekly jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years and exceeding market forecasts, highlighting emerging softness in the labor market. This jump in unemployment filings, combined with a slight rise in the jobless rate to 4.2 per cent in August, underscores a weakening employment landscape that has pulled the Fed in conflicting directions: persistent inflation argues for caution, while labor market fragility demands stimulus.
Despite these tensions, the data has cemented bets on a rate reduction, with markets pricing in a 100 per cent chance of at least a 25 basis point cut next week, and roughly 50 per cent odds of a more aggressive 50 basis point move.
Bond markets have reacted accordingly, with US Treasuries posting gains overnight. The 10-year yield dipped 2.5 basis points to 4.02 per cent, while the 2-year yield edged down 0.2 basis points to 3.54 per cent, reflecting investor flight to safety amid the mixed economic signals. The US Dollar Index consolidated with a modest 0.3 per cent decline, as traders weighed the implications of looser policy on currency strength.
Commodities presented a more varied picture: gold slipped 0.2 per cent, maintaining its role as a hedge against uncertainty, but Brent crude tumbled 1.7 per cent below US$67 per barrel, pressured by ongoing oversupply fears from OPEC+ production and sluggish global demand. These movements illustrate a market in transition, where the promise of Fed easing supports equities and bonds, yet commodity weakness hints at underlying economic headwinds that could temper the enthusiasm.
Turning to the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin has captured particular attention with its 1.55 per cent rise over the past 24 hours, outpacing the broader crypto market’s 1.83 per cent gain. This daily uptick aligns with a weekly advance of 3.82 per cent, though it trails behind monthly and quarterly averages, down 3.1 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively.
As of September 12, 2025, Bitcoin hovers around US$114,290, having rebounded from recent lows near US$111,500 but still testing resistance at US$115,000. This price action occurs against a backdrop of several bullish catalysts. Foremost among them is the heightened probability of Fed rate cuts, which historically boost risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies by lowering borrowing costs and encouraging investment in high-growth sectors. Markets now assign 50 per cent odds to a 50 basis point cut on September 17, a scenario that could flood the system with liquidity and propel Bitcoin higher.
Additionally, regulatory tailwinds from the SEC’s proposed generic listing standards for crypto ETFs promise to streamline approvals for altcoin products, potentially accelerating inflows and broadening market participation. The agency has already greenlit in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto exchange-traded products in August 2025, aligning them with traditional commodity funds and reducing operational frictions. Complementing this, stablecoin reserves on exchanges have swelled to a record US$70 billion, indicating ample dry powder for buying but also raising concerns about potential selling pressure if sentiment sours.
However, beneath this surface buoyancy lurk technical signals that suggest Bitcoin’s uptrend may be faltering. The cryptocurrency has formed a rising wedge pattern on its charts, characterised by two ascending and converging trendlines that often precede bearish reversals. As these lines approach their apex, the risk of a breakdown intensifies, with analysts warning of a potential drop below US$100,000 if support levels give way. The Average Directional Index, a key trend strength indicator, has retreated from a year-to-date peak of 60 to around 24, pointing to diminishing momentum in the current rally.
Compounding this, the Relative Strength Index exhibits a bearish divergence, where the oscillator forms a descending channel even as prices climb, a setup that frequently heralds strong downward breakouts. Recent analyses highlight this divergence on weekly timeframes, with RSI flashing triple bearish signals that echo historical fragility points in equities, such as the 1998 LTCM crisis or the 2008 financial meltdown.
Moreover, Bitcoin’s price action mirrors patterns from past cycles, including a potential double top reminiscent of 2021, which preceded a 77 per cent correction. September’s historical underperformance, averaging negative returns since 2013, adds another layer of caution, with some projections eyeing a dip to US$108,802 or even US$88,000 in a deeper pullback.
Sentiment on social platforms like X reflects this dichotomy, with users debating the Fed cut’s implications. Some warn of a “sell the news” event, where Bitcoin rallies in the lead-up to the announcement only to crash afterward, as the cut, whether 25 or 50 basis points, may already be fully priced in by participants.
Posts highlight JPMorgan’s caution that easing might not trigger a uniform risk-on surge, potentially sparking a broader market dump. Others point to whale selling pressure, with over 100,000 BTC offloaded recently amid frozen corporate buys, and miner outflows turning bearish post-halving.
Bullish voices counter with observations of institutional accumulation, including 1,417 entities holding over 1,000 BTC each, and daily corporate purchases averaging 1,400 BTC, signaling long-term confidence. Threads discuss Bitcoin’s resilience, noting hidden bullish divergences in RSI near oversold levels and a flattening MACD, which could catalyse a rebound if liquidity flows resume. One prominent analyst frames the setup as a consolidation phase, with the Network Value to Transactions ratio at 1.51, well below overvaluation thresholds, suggesting sustainable growth driven by utility rather than speculation.
In my view, while the bearish technical indicators and historical September weakness pose genuine short-term risks, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains fundamentally upward over the longer horizon. The Fed’s impending cut, even if it triggers a knee-jerk selloff, will ultimately enhance liquidity in a way that benefits high-beta assets, such as cryptocurrencies, especially as dollar weakness from policy easing drives capital into alternatives like Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold.”
Regulatory progress on ETFs, coupled with surging stablecoin reserves, underscores growing institutional adoption that could absorb any temporary dips. Historical parallels, such as post-halving Septembers leading to Q4 surges, suggest this correction might be a buying opportunity rather than a prelude to collapse.
That said, a failure to hold US$113,500 support could accelerate downside toward US$100,000, validating the wedge breakdown. Investors should monitor the Fed’s decision closely: a 50 basis point surprise might ignite a rally to US$120,000, as some inverse head-and-shoulders patterns imply, while a cautious 25 basis point trim could extend the choppiness.
Overall, the interplay of macro easing and crypto-specific tailwinds tilts the scales toward optimism, provided global growth holds steady amid tariff uncertainties. This moment feels like a pivotal inflection point, where patience and data-driven positioning will separate winners from those caught in volatility’s grip.
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